Wasteful-Humanity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$42.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.93K

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

121

Trades

7,381

lifetime

Volume

$8.73M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.18K

Open exposure

$3.36K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-28 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

66% 75% +$116,230

Politics

26% 65% -$242,163

Crypto

8% 30% +$83,072

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2,186	$2,011	92¢	$2.0K	-$11	09-28 15:15
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+35,866	$1,037	2¢	$735	-$302	09-24 16:27
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	-5,191	-$3,303	12¢	$-623	+$2,680	04-30 14:54
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+0	-$4,188	98¢	$0	+$4,188	05-22 02:43
ebola pandemic in 2026	No	+0	-$50	97¢	$0	+$50	06-04 10:25
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1,678	18¢	$0	-$1,678	08-23 13:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	223	$967.1K	598,411	433,452	+164,959	Yes	+$54,588	03-17 13:41
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	543	$712.0K	590,574	176,825	+413,748	No	+$54,137	01-31 23:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1,000	$588.7K	337,938	262,938	+75,000	Yes	+$2,287	06-13 12:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	515	$578.0K	389,873	222,270	+167,603	No	+$32,683	04-29 01:11
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	236	$567.7K	391,979	275,274	+116,704	No	+$94,604	03-30 13:15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	112	$481.1K	440,272	152,272	+288,000	No	+$88,578	06-02 12:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	32	$375.4K	370,534	70,691	+299,843	Yes	-$61,775	04-09 15:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	326	$321.2K	173,340	156,291	+17,049	No	+$3,756	05-13 20:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$288.2K	289,315	0	+289,315	Yes	+$1,109	04-07 18:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	157	$286.8K	150,000	150,000	-0	No	+$3,414	05-23 22:57
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	303	$220.1K	118,701	118,701	+0	open	—	05-22 02:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	63	$192.1K	151,220	50,250	+100,969	No	+$8,776	05-29 23:07
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	58	$176.3K	188,737	6,000	+182,737	Yes	+$18,403	01-28 22:50
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	19	$173.3K	195,275	0	+195,275	Yes	-$173,338	01-03 06:11
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$170.2K	171,328	0	+171,328	Yes	+$1,113	05-02 08:14
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	45	$159.1K	87,423	87,423	+0	No	-$1,932	05-17 14:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	35	$158.7K	160,415	0	+160,415	No	+$1,665	01-30 16:53
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	286	$143.2K	150,849	151,224	-374	Yes	-$131,867	05-04 12:04
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	160	$141.6K	92,943	53,348	+39,595	Yes	+$3,978	06-09 20:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	219	$139.2K	77,912	77,912	+0	Yes	+$4,552	07-14 12:42
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	41	$137.6K	146,819	0	+146,819	No	+$9,201	06-08 23:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	131	$113.2K	60,647	60,647	+0	No	+$6,163	06-12 23:21
will joo cotrim de figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	235	$105.8K	72,835	52,849	+19,986	No	-$7,258	01-18 20:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	73	$92.0K	93,663	0	+93,663	Yes	+$1,692	02-02 21:56
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	47	$86.6K	94,725	42	+94,683	No	+$8,144	07-13 13:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	119	$70.9K	74,467	85,000	-10,533	Yes	-$64,209	04-07 23:05
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	23	$65.5K	36,609	29,990	+6,619	No	+$942	06-29 15:45
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	33	$63.6K	70,090	0	+70,090	No	+$6,460	05-14 12:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	27	$62.8K	35,082	35,082	+0	No	+$2,928	05-29 15:16
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	52	$58.3K	62,688	0	+62,688	No	+$4,358	04-30 15:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 15:15:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	410	92¢	$377	0x52b4ac…
09-28 14:18:17	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	267	92¢	$245	0xd74eb1…
09-28 14:11:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe1d3d3…
09-28 13:48:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0x09fd40…
09-28 11:22:26	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xca1c95…
09-28 11:06:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xefad1e…
09-28 10:58:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x2b862c…
09-28 10:57:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	437	92¢	$402	0x45a8ff…
09-24 16:27:08	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7,192	6¢	$403	0xa1fe24…
09-24 16:24:56	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	640	99¢	$636	0x12bcc0…
09-11 23:28:21	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	640	98¢	$629	0xb4dca9…
09-11 23:26:42	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	393	100¢	$391	0x341554…
09-11 23:26:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	322	75¢	$243	0x3e981d…
09-09 16:14:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	322	85¢	$274	0xc5993c…
09-09 15:36:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	632	72¢	$455	0x4f7b82…
09-09 15:35:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	71¢	$261	0xe97df2…
09-09 15:35:28	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,010	99¢	$1,002	0xe871b3…
08-28 13:55:16	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,403	96¢	$1,353	0x1e5154…
08-23 13:36:57	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,252	27¢	$338	0xccf498…
08-22 18:05:06	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	7,424	98¢	$7,306	0x0d0383…
08-22 15:36:37	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	878	27¢	$237	0x7439db…
08-22 15:03:36	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x3c3696…
08-22 15:02:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf66a8e…
08-22 14:56:51	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,192	27¢	$322	0x480fb3…
08-22 14:41:42	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,842	27¢	$497	0x553ae6…
08-22 14:14:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	989	43¢	$425	0x06509d…
08-22 14:13:06	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,819	27¢	$491	0x84646b…
08-22 14:07:54	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x30d06b…
08-22 12:55:40	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	27¢	$33	0xe60c20…
08-22 11:54:37	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	27¢	$32	0xcaacf2…
08-22 11:53:46	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12,224	43¢	$5,271	0x25c136…
08-21 23:11:39	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x56dd72…
08-21 11:23:21	Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	148	0¢	$1	0x86c764…
08-21 11:22:04	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15,468	24¢	$3,712	0x0f710d…
08-18 19:17:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	3,225	98¢	$3,161	0x5220df…
08-18 19:17:31	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	2,177	98¢	$2,136	0x16a301…
07-23 19:41:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,859	23¢	$1,109	0x3f7e7d…
07-23 19:39:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	14,275	23¢	$3,288	0xe479f7…
07-23 17:57:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11,177	24¢	$2,628	0x74a035…
07-14 12:48:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,372	56¢	$769	0xd303af…
07-14 12:42:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,624	91¢	$6,938	0x768643…
07-14 12:42:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,045	91¢	$9,141	0x359c27…
07-14 12:42:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x97a03f…
07-14 12:42:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6,027	91¢	$5,485	0xeaf359…
07-14 12:42:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x7ae231…
07-14 12:42:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,516	91¢	$2,290	0x448de5…
07-14 12:42:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	76	91¢	$69	0x806bc0…
07-14 12:42:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x25890d…
07-14 12:42:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	18,974	91¢	$17,266	0x390802…
07-13 13:21:49	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	129	99¢	$127	0xddf039…
07-09 13:04:37	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	6,791	92¢	$6,268	0x7ca526…
07-09 02:35:28	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,495	90¢	$1,346	0xead780…
07-09 02:26:14	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1,870	75¢	$1,402	0x19faf9…
07-09 02:24:10	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x3deb1c…
07-09 02:13:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x4a21da…
07-09 02:13:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	3,704	83¢	$3,081	0xe36cd4…
07-09 02:01:50	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xf4658a…
07-09 01:49:22	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	4,883	92¢	$4,507	0x77625d…
07-09 01:41:11	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x9f95e4…
07-09 01:05:23	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	109	87¢	$95	0x91bd59…
07-09 00:44:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x3b38fc…
07-09 00:28:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	63	91¢	$57	0x58ce27…
07-09 00:28:26	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x5a646d…
07-09 00:02:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	78¢	$3,900	0x2ed9b9…
07-08 23:50:22	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	6,670	93¢	$6,198	0xd4340b…
07-08 23:50:05	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	4,658	93¢	$4,313	0x1c5f08…
07-08 23:49:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x7f36c3…
07-08 23:48:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x92a844…
07-08 23:34:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	10,000	86¢	$8,630	0xc15d3a…
07-08 23:17:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x8ada5b…
07-08 23:17:28	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	600	92¢	$554	0xa5df63…
07-08 23:05:52	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	3,000	92¢	$2,769	0x849e3d…
07-08 23:04:14	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	900	92¢	$831	0x52371b…
07-08 22:35:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2e2abb…
07-08 22:35:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	77¢	$21	0x54097f…
07-08 22:21:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	392	94¢	$368	0x8af4dc…
07-08 22:21:26	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	519	93¢	$485	0xf3eb7b…
07-08 22:10:28	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xac05c3…
07-08 22:10:05	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xad3d12…
07-08 22:03:34	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0xb43271…
07-08 21:55:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	311	94¢	$291	0xab549c…
07-08 21:45:49	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	602	99¢	$596	0x18de2e…
07-08 21:44:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	2,500	85¢	$2,130	0xc63685…
07-08 21:40:22	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	675	93¢	$626	0xafc21c…
07-08 21:40:13	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	1,651	90¢	$1,483	0x8b8fe9…
07-08 21:16:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	10,000	92¢	$9,220	0xa5820f…
07-08 20:53:38	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	1,651	90¢	$1,487	0x2dda07…
07-08 20:52:52	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	675	92¢	$621	0x90dfc5…
07-08 11:56:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,620	95¢	$1,544	0x2f295a…
07-08 11:54:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	6,408	95¢	$6,098	0xc51bee…
07-08 00:53:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,100	95¢	$1,045	0x462eb4…
07-08 00:53:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,225	95¢	$1,162	0x4595fa…
07-08 00:52:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,048	95¢	$994	0xa552ca…
07-08 00:52:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,300	95¢	$1,231	0x15204b…
07-07 13:13:04	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	4,452	94¢	$4,203	0x4ccb81…
07-06 22:00:04	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	4,662	91¢	$4,252	0x04adaf…
07-06 15:04:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	35	76¢	$26	0x06d453…
07-06 14:54:14	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x7f5d91…
07-06 14:54:14	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	14	76¢	$10	0x174560…
07-06 14:53:58	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x356410…