Realized P&L
-$260
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
50.9%
Resolved
1,374
Trades
6,868
lifetime
Volume
$26.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$165
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-17
last 09-22 22:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 85 days
Categories
Other
93% 57% -$256
Politics
3% 67% -$6
Crypto
2% 55% -$10
Tech
1% 61% +$2
Sports
1% 65% +$6
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
24 active days in 12wk • peak 1002 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes +55 $44 66¢ $36 -$7 09-02 23:58
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No +55 $16 34¢ $19 +$3 09-03 04:36
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No +8 $5 100¢ $8 +$3 08-28 20:21
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? No +8 $2 99¢ $8 +$6 09-05 07:37
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +8 $1 98¢ $8 +$7 09-22 18:16
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +8 $5 98¢ $8 +$3 08-26 15:52
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 08-16 13:46
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? No +8 $6 98¢ $8 +$2 09-02 11:02
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No +8 $7 97¢ $8 +$0 08-21 16:47
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No +8 $7 96¢ $8 +$0 08-10 09:33
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980 No +8 $6 95¢ $8 +$1 09-05 05:12
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +8 $2 88¢ $7 +$6 09-05 03:31
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? No +8 $6 87¢ $7 +$1 09-01 12:07
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +8 $5 80¢ $6 +$1 09-21 22:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 No +8 $3 63¢ $5 +$2 08-21 15:01
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +4 $1 81¢ $4 +$2 08-29 07:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 Yes +8 $5 37¢ $3 -$2 08-21 13:20
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +8 $2 20¢ $2 $0 09-21 22:01
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes +2 $1 70¢ $1 $0 08-26 14:58
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No +9 $7 12¢ $1 -$6 09-05 06:04
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes +8 $1 13¢ $1 $0 09-01 12:43
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +4 $3 19¢ $1 -$2 08-29 13:24
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980 Yes +8 $1 5¢ $0 -$1 09-05 10:07
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes +8 $1 4¢ $0 $0 08-10 10:07
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Yes +8 $1 3¢ $0 $0 08-21 17:13
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? Yes +8 $2 2¢ $0 -$1 09-02 11:08
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes +8 $0 2¢ $0 +$0 08-16 14:20
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? No +8 $4 2¢ $0 -$4 08-26 16:29
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Yes +8 $5 1¢ $0 -$5 09-05 06:54
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Yes +8 $2 0¢ $0 -$2 08-28 20:34