Realized P&L
-$387
Unrealized P&L
+$51
Hit rate
60.9%
Resolved
520
Trades
1,103
lifetime
Volume
$8.11K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$239
18 positions
First seen
2026-02-04
last 10-26 23:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 71 days
Categories
Other
76% 67% -$176
Sports
15% 53% -$209
Politics
8% 28% +$19
Tech
0% — —
Crypto
0% 0% -$20
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -438 -$106 16¢ $-72 +$34 05-26 20:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -51 -$39 86¢ $-44 -$4 08-07 20:31
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +41 $20 44¢ $18 -$2 10-19 09:31
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +16 $13 88¢ $14 +$1 10-25 13:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +16 $13 86¢ $14 +$0 10-25 13:11
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +16 $13 82¢ $13 +$0 10-15 21:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +16 $12 72¢ $12 +$0 10-26 23:31
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes -11 -$39 100¢ $-11 +$28 10-25 20:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 10-25 13:11
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No +8 $7 87¢ $7 +$0 10-09 13:59
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +8 $5 87¢ $7 +$2 10-26 03:20
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) Eagles +10 $5 68¢ $7 +$2 10-26 22:48
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +8 $6 76¢ $6 $0 10-26 21:56
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -769 -$10 1¢ $-6 +$4 05-26 20:10
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes -88 -$2 1¢ $-1 +$1 09-23 20:50
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes +3 $1 18¢ $1 $0 08-27 09:44
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes +117 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 04-29 21:49
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +26 $11 0¢ $0 -$11 10-14 10:21