Realized P&L
+$3.90K
Unrealized P&L
+$413
Hit rate
79.1%
Resolved
298
Trades
2,380
lifetime
Volume
$776.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$326
Open exposure
$60.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-15
last 10-30 04:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 45 days
Categories
Other
84% 54% +$3,702
Tech
9% 57% +$0
Politics
5% 86% +$57
Crypto
1% 100% +$146
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +54,944 $51,156 92¢ $50.3K -$883 10-29 17:54
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,465 $7,090 95¢ $7.1K -$21 10-29 23:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027? No +2,282 $2,155 98¢ $2.2K +$72 10-27 13:00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +320 $282 95¢ $303 +$22 09-30 04:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +136 $130 95¢ $130 $0 10-10 14:01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No +111 $103 97¢ $108 +$4 09-28 14:17
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +30 -$487 97¢ $29 +$516 10-27 07:44
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +25 $18 98¢ $24 +$7 10-28 23:10
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +25 -$556 97¢ $24 +$580 08-04 05:41
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +25 $23 90¢ $23 $0 10-19 10:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +20 $15 97¢ $19 +$5 10-09 09:21
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +20 -$33 97¢ $19 +$53 10-30 04:23
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? No +15 $18 98¢ $15 -$3 10-24 12:45
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No +15 $14 97¢ $14 +$0 10-15 23:04
will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31 No +10 -$114 96¢ $10 +$124 10-10 15:55
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-13 04:25
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-13 03:29
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +5 $84 90¢ $4 -$80 10-16 16:16
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +30 $2 3¢ $1 -$1 06-12 10:49
ebola pandemic in 2026 Yes +30 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-03 12:02
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +10 $1 8¢ $1 +$0 10-01 20:20
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? Yes +25 $1 2¢ $1 $0 10-27 07:14
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes +15 $1 4¢ $1 $0 09-27 22:25
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +5 $0 11¢ $1 +$0 09-20 16:27
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +20 $1 3¢ $1 -$1 05-18 07:54
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +5 $0 10¢ $0 +$0 10-01 13:32
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +5 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 09-20 03:48
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +5 $0 1¢ $0 $0 10-23 11:43
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31 No +0 $0 94¢ $0 +$0 06-20 09:53
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -0 -$20 97¢ $-0 +$20 10-09 12:25