Disastrous-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.90K

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

6,558

Trades

33,833

lifetime

Volume

$6.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$206

Open exposure

$2.88K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 13:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 283 days

Categories

Other

85% 99% +$5,508

Crypto

9% 99% +$290

Politics

5% 92% +$421

Sports

0% 99% -$324

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	+851	$830	99¢	$845	+$15	10-25 10:01
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+600	$558	92¢	$549	-$9	10-20 05:41
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+400	$352	86¢	$344	-$8	10-16 15:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	+300	$297	100¢	$300	+$2	10-16 01:03
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+300	$288	97¢	$291	+$3	10-11 23:15
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	+245	$231	96¢	$237	+$6	10-25 23:39
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+120	$113	95¢	$114	+$1	10-15 14:54
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674	Yes	+400	$50	26¢	$102	+$52	10-15 18:03
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+533	$91	14¢	$75	-$17	10-20 23:36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+423	$43	6¢	$27	-$16	08-02 16:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	380	$115.5K	60,492	57,717	+2,775	No	+$300	02-08 23:38
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	518	$80.9K	44,867	36,801	+8,066	Yes	+$232	02-08 20:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	232	$33.8K	17,857	16,794	+1,063	No	+$57	04-19 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	184	$28.0K	45,697	27,341	+18,356	Yes	+$912	04-09 02:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$15.8K	8,000	8,000	+0	Yes	+$13	04-13 12:31
Iran leadership change by April 30?	87	$14.3K	7,538	7,534	+4	No	+$15	05-01 01:37
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 18c	114	$13.5K	6,323	13,406	-7,083	No	-$86	04-06 19:26
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	22	$12.7K	6,783	5,960	+823	No	+$13	01-23 18:36
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 25corbelow	4	$12.5K	12,497	0	+12,497	No	+$25	04-07 13:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	23	$12.4K	6,227	6,227	+0	No	+$28	04-13 11:46
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?	4	$12.0K	11,996	0	+11,996	No	+$12	04-30 16:00
highest temperature in seoul on february 23 2026 3c	4	$11.8K	11,988	0	+11,988	No	+$202	02-23 04:17
Iran leadership change by June 30?	122	$11.1K	6,514	5,463	+1,051	No	+$80	06-30 05:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	80	$10.8K	5,778	5,278	+500	No	+$29	06-16 02:09
highest temperature in london on february 18 2026 3c	5	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	No	+$10	02-18 02:25
highest temperature in seoul on february 27 2026 8c	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	No	+$10	02-27 02:04
highest temperature in seattle on february 13 2026 42 43f	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	No	+$10	02-13 08:56
highest temperature in seoul on february 19 2026 2c	3	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	No	+$15	02-19 01:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	86	$10.4K	6,037	5,137	+900	No	+$43	05-20 02:25
highest temperature in london on january 25 7c	6	$10.2K	10,257	0	+10,257	No	+$10	01-25 12:55
highest temperature in london on march 1 2026 10c	18	$10.2K	10,200	0	+10,200	No	+$10	03-01 12:18
highest temperature in london on january 17 9c	11	$10.1K	10,117	0	+10,117	No	+$14	01-17 11:18
highest temperature in nyc on february 15 2026 34 35f	9	$9.9K	9,901	0	+9,901	No	+$17	02-15 17:53
highest temperature in nyc on april 12 2026 52 53f	20	$9.7K	9,717	0	+9,717	No	+$10	04-12 20:00
highest temperature in seoul on january 25 neg 4c	11	$9.6K	9,732	0	+9,732	No	+$97	01-25 05:15
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 19c	17	$9.6K	4,087	5,499	-1,412	No	-$1	04-06 17:38
highest temperature in toronto on february 9 2026 neg 9c	3	$9.4K	9,436	0	+9,436	No	+$9	02-09 19:43
Iran leadership change by May 31?	72	$9.4K	5,532	4,627	+905	No	+$59	05-31 23:46
highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	22	$9.3K	9,316	0	+9,316	No	+$9	03-22 06:13
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1?	26	$9.0K	9,009	0	+9,009	No	+$9	05-01 18:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 13:09:51	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb1a495…
10-25 23:39:27	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5eb415…
10-25 20:00:56	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x887c6c…
10-25 14:10:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x051972…
10-25 14:06:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2885d4…
10-25 14:02:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xac7df9…
10-25 10:01:18	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8e985c…
10-25 05:10:02	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5beea0…
10-25 04:36:48	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0xfd0a9b…
10-25 04:34:17	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0x30cdb1…
10-25 01:15:15	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0x17760e…
10-25 00:19:23	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x30737e…
10-24 23:18:26	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd05d29…
10-24 23:14:51	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x57826d…
10-24 07:09:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	319	100¢	$319	0x51ea55…
10-23 23:14:24	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0x0540f0…
10-23 15:09:36	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x4c8bd3…
10-23 15:02:59	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3475ae…
10-23 15:02:00	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x7817f8…
10-23 13:03:44	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x631491…
10-23 09:03:32	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb1381a…
10-22 18:09:09	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x13c9c8…
10-22 18:01:23	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x98f7c7…
10-22 16:05:08	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc94f19…
10-22 16:02:24	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xb22871…
10-22 15:04:02	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x85b51a…
10-22 14:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x756d19…
10-22 14:07:33	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xe4d8b0…
10-22 14:07:02	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x4139fc…
10-22 14:06:32	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xd53594…
10-22 14:06:02	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0xc38995…
10-22 14:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0x314255…
10-22 01:04:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	266	100¢	$266	0xdd51b9…
10-21 19:11:26	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x237c60…
10-21 17:01:44	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x01a289…
10-21 11:02:15	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf97449…
10-21 07:20:42	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x81d575…
10-20 23:36:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xaec645…
10-20 23:07:06	Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0xd30dc9…
10-20 22:59:14	Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x8b3487…
10-20 22:57:36	Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xaa68a9…
10-20 10:26:54	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x8da578…
10-20 10:24:42	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	236	99¢	$233	0x84211f…
10-20 07:10:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb159e0…
10-20 07:08:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	217	100¢	$217	0x14722a…
10-20 07:02:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x05da5a…
10-20 05:41:08	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0xfb21b2…
10-20 05:02:00	XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8d5326…
10-20 03:21:08	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	162	92¢	$149	0x7a009f…
10-20 02:39:57	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0xdf9a1e…
10-19 23:29:56	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0x8b6fb8…
10-19 17:59:36	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0xf8839a…
10-19 17:37:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$33	0x926b03…
10-19 17:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf3e8ce…
10-19 17:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xa1dff2…
10-19 17:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x662dd9…
10-19 12:11:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0xce43b8…
10-19 10:15:17	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xa232a1…
10-19 09:15:02	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	57¢	$12	0xbda76c…
10-19 07:15:30	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x7656df…
10-19 07:02:50	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfc4ac8…
10-18 19:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x15b6e5…
10-18 19:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x46e23c…
10-18 13:03:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xda8f7e…
10-18 08:49:21	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xeb2712…
10-18 06:58:57	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	149	99¢	$147	0x08f5ba…
10-18 03:09:45	XRP Up or Down - October 17, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x615a78…
10-18 01:45:39	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	150	98¢	$148	0x00345d…
10-17 14:15:33	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xc22314…
10-17 14:04:12	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1cc71e…
10-16 18:37:43	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	149	98¢	$146	0x779666…
10-16 16:42:31	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x421ee7…
10-16 16:18:37	Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0xa044ee…
10-16 15:39:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xdf1f26…
10-16 15:35:39	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x28d65d…
10-16 01:03:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xa8a7c2…
10-16 00:32:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x762467…
10-15 22:59:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xaf7ce4…
10-15 18:19:49	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xbf6d39…
10-15 18:03:10	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x321273…
10-15 17:22:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xdcddc0…
10-15 14:54:20	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0x7b66b3…
10-15 14:01:20	Solana Up or Down - October 15, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x8602e9…
10-15 13:02:37	Solana Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9d0254…
10-15 08:25:35	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xc1aea1…
10-15 00:04:27	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	245	100¢	$245	0xcdfdf3…
10-15 00:04:00	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb20214…
10-14 22:02:06	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	472	100¢	$472	0xfc9c37…
10-14 19:09:54	ethereum up or down october 14 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe245c5…
10-14 14:48:42	will the iranian regime fall by june 30 2027	No	BUY	35	82¢	$29	0x93a9c9…
10-14 07:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	71	100¢	$70	0xe400d7…
10-14 05:05:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2e00c3…
10-13 17:54:12	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xc1d6cb…
10-13 17:08:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x45748a…
10-12 17:01:20	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x47efd4…
10-12 16:57:02	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	115	95¢	$109	0x60849b…
10-12 04:12:06	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	71	95¢	$67	0x937e3f…
10-11 23:15:24	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0x5a459a…
10-11 20:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2,087	100¢	$2,085	0x35c96a…
10-10 22:01:52	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf35366…