Disastrous-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

+$25

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

23,964

lifetime

Volume

$5.35M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$223

Open exposure

$102

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 20:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

82% 100% +$0

Crypto

11% 100% +$15

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes		+433	$80	24¢	$102	+$22	07-20 17:31
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No		+0	$-3	99¢	$0	+$3	06-22 00:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	380	$115.5K	60,492	57,717	+2,775	open	—	02-08 23:38
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	518	$80.9K	44,867	36,801	+8,066	open	—	02-08 20:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	232	$33.8K	17,857	16,794	+1,063	open	—	04-19 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	184	$28.0K	45,697	27,341	+18,356	open	—	04-09 02:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$15.8K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	04-13 12:31
Iran leadership change by April 30?	87	$14.3K	7,538	7,534	+4	open	—	05-01 01:37
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 18c	114	$13.5K	6,323	13,406	-7,083	open	—	04-06 19:26
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	22	$12.7K	6,783	5,960	+823	open	—	01-23 18:36
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 25corbelow	4	$12.5K	12,497	0	+12,497	open	—	04-07 13:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	23	$12.4K	6,227	6,227	+0	open	—	04-13 11:46
highest temperature in seoul on february 23 2026 3c	4	$11.8K	11,988	0	+11,988	open	—	02-23 04:17
highest temperature in london on february 18 2026 3c	5	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-18 02:25
highest temperature in seattle on february 13 2026 42 43f	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-13 08:56
highest temperature in seoul on february 27 2026 8c	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-27 02:04
highest temperature in seoul on february 19 2026 2c	3	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-19 01:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	86	$10.4K	6,037	5,137	+900	open	—	05-20 02:25
highest temperature in london on january 25 7c	6	$10.2K	10,257	0	+10,257	open	—	01-25 12:55
highest temperature in london on march 1 2026 10c	18	$10.2K	10,200	0	+10,200	open	—	03-01 12:18
highest temperature in london on january 17 9c	11	$10.1K	10,117	0	+10,117	open	—	01-17 11:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	76	$10.0K	5,172	5,077	+95	open	—	06-16 02:09
highest temperature in nyc on february 15 2026 34 35f	9	$9.9K	9,901	0	+9,901	open	—	02-15 17:53
highest temperature in nyc on april 12 2026 52 53f	20	$9.7K	9,717	0	+9,717	open	—	04-12 20:00
highest temperature in seoul on january 25 neg 4c	11	$9.6K	9,732	0	+9,732	open	—	01-25 05:15
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 19c	17	$9.6K	4,087	5,499	-1,412	open	—	04-06 17:38
highest temperature in toronto on february 9 2026 neg 9c	3	$9.4K	9,436	0	+9,436	open	—	02-09 19:43
Iran leadership change by May 31?	71	$9.3K	5,486	4,627	+860	open	—	05-31 23:46
highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	22	$9.3K	9,316	0	+9,316	open	—	03-22 06:13
highest temperature in toronto on march 20 2026 1corbelow	3	$9.0K	8,998	0	+8,998	open	—	03-20 16:02
Iran leadership change by June 30?	98	$8.9K	5,197	4,219	+977	open	—	06-30 05:51
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 15 32corbelow	3	$8.8K	8,841	0	+8,841	open	—	01-15 13:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 20:03:37	ethereum up or down july 20 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xfeda6f…
07-20 20:03:07	ethereum up or down july 20 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xd4f890…
07-20 18:09:21	solana up or down july 20 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0b9f13…
07-20 17:31:37	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	173	23¢	$40	0x0fdb04…
07-20 17:20:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x19dcf9…
07-20 15:49:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x395735…
07-20 15:03:01	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xf2ebcb…
07-20 15:03:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x699fe8…
07-20 15:03:00	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	23	97¢	$23	0xc51f38…
07-20 15:00:49	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x1d956c…
07-20 11:31:30	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x4bf16f…
07-20 10:21:24	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x402b97…
07-20 07:50:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xc2f244…
07-20 07:50:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	27¢	$9	0x7b3765…
07-20 07:38:21	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x5a3da1…
07-20 07:38:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x9dfbe6…
07-20 07:38:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x9c86db…
07-20 07:38:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x2a18c2…
07-20 07:38:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x1cad0a…
07-20 07:38:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x871953…
07-20 07:38:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$0	0xa41459…
07-20 07:38:06	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x5afbe7…
07-20 07:38:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xe1fef7…
07-20 07:38:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xc71b09…
07-20 07:38:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x03c55a…
07-20 07:37:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xe44af1…
07-20 07:37:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xa5ca22…
07-20 07:37:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$13	0x9577ec…
07-20 07:37:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x725a68…
07-20 07:37:54	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x17cb6f…
07-20 07:37:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xc68de4…
07-20 07:37:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xb0ec28…
07-20 07:37:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0x3355f3…
07-20 07:32:06	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	131	96¢	$126	0xa6ab1b…
07-20 07:28:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xbafdb7…
07-20 07:28:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x59fe68…
07-20 07:27:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x39c9ad…
07-20 07:27:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xe88097…
07-20 07:27:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xe08fff…
07-20 07:27:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x4036c4…
07-20 07:27:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x08763b…
07-20 07:03:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xffe94a…
07-20 07:03:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xa75fcb…
07-20 07:03:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x955cce…
07-20 07:03:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xcfd801…
07-20 07:03:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x7bbc21…
07-20 07:03:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x71d12d…
07-20 07:03:00	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x46a91d…
07-20 05:54:57	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd7d6ea…
07-20 04:17:42	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x0402c1…
07-20 04:06:48	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x465c65…
07-20 04:05:16	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xbf0fc7…
07-20 04:04:06	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x7812f2…
07-20 04:03:58	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	189	100¢	$188	0x6d269d…
07-20 04:03:06	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdadff5…
07-20 04:02:25	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe4bc9b…
07-20 04:01:15	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0xb97ebe…
07-20 03:47:31	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x51a6a4…
07-20 03:23:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	27¢	$4	0x910ca2…
07-20 03:18:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x2f55a8…
07-20 00:37:31	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	200	96¢	$191	0x0d6a77…
07-20 00:02:04	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xecbe42…
07-19 23:03:22	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x444275…
07-19 20:05:18	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x697b50…
07-19 12:04:03	ethereum up or down july 19 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x911f10…
07-19 12:03:31	ethereum up or down july 19 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe721b9…
07-19 12:03:31	ethereum up or down july 19 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbe9695…
07-19 12:03:31	ethereum up or down july 19 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x957301…
07-19 11:24:39	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xafd443…
07-19 09:10:25	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	935	100¢	$934	0x329b23…
07-19 09:06:39	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfc77df…
07-19 09:05:18	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e7fef…
07-19 09:03:06	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x112dfe…
07-19 09:02:58	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcad779…
07-19 07:02:22	xrp up or down july 19 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x98241d…
07-19 06:08:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	201	27¢	$54	0xd134a1…
07-19 06:02:48	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xebf2ee…
07-19 06:02:39	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x119b1a…
07-19 05:34:12	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x3f282e…
07-19 05:10:40	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x0ec384…
07-19 02:07:15	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	158	100¢	$157	0x5bdc26…
07-19 02:02:01	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	59	96¢	$57	0x20ec1d…
07-19 00:48:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	35	25¢	$9	0x950405…
07-19 00:48:15	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xbe05bc…
07-19 00:11:43	xrp up or down july 18 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf49182…
07-19 00:06:58	xrp up or down july 18 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf33929…
07-18 22:59:33	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x44e0f6…
07-18 22:33:01	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0xe28169…
07-18 21:59:54	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	135	96¢	$129	0x195b1d…
07-18 21:35:13	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xd95503…
07-18 21:25:06	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0xc55160…
07-18 20:04:10	bnb up or down july 18 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbd4359…
07-18 17:37:48	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xf21601…
07-18 16:27:57	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	191	96¢	$183	0x4137a8…
07-18 14:49:37	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x48f217…
07-18 13:05:16	ethereum up or down july 18 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xfadb20…
07-18 09:22:03	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	200	96¢	$191	0xa4fa7b…
07-18 06:04:01	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	413	100¢	$412	0x5d61cd…
07-18 06:03:01	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb65b3a…
07-18 02:03:19	xrp up or down july 17 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf592ad…