Disastrous-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

24,248

lifetime

Volume

$5.38M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$222

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 18:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

82% 100% +$0

Crypto

11% 100% +$15

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	380	$115.5K	60,492	57,717	+2,775	open	—	02-08 23:38
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	518	$80.9K	44,867	36,801	+8,066	open	—	02-08 20:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	232	$33.8K	17,857	16,794	+1,063	open	—	04-19 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	184	$28.0K	45,697	27,341	+18,356	open	—	04-09 02:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$15.8K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	04-13 12:31
Iran leadership change by April 30?	87	$14.3K	7,538	7,534	+4	open	—	05-01 01:37
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 18c	114	$13.5K	6,323	13,406	-7,083	open	—	04-06 19:26
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	22	$12.7K	6,783	5,960	+823	open	—	01-23 18:36
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 25corbelow	4	$12.5K	12,497	0	+12,497	open	—	04-07 13:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	23	$12.4K	6,227	6,227	+0	open	—	04-13 11:46
highest temperature in seoul on february 23 2026 3c	4	$11.8K	11,988	0	+11,988	open	—	02-23 04:17
highest temperature in london on february 18 2026 3c	5	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-18 02:25
highest temperature in seattle on february 13 2026 42 43f	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-13 08:56
highest temperature in seoul on february 27 2026 8c	4	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-27 02:04
highest temperature in seoul on february 19 2026 2c	3	$10.5K	10,497	0	+10,497	open	—	02-19 01:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	86	$10.4K	6,037	5,137	+900	open	—	05-20 02:25
highest temperature in london on january 25 7c	6	$10.2K	10,257	0	+10,257	open	—	01-25 12:55
highest temperature in london on march 1 2026 10c	18	$10.2K	10,200	0	+10,200	open	—	03-01 12:18
highest temperature in london on january 17 9c	11	$10.1K	10,117	0	+10,117	open	—	01-17 11:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	76	$10.0K	5,172	5,077	+95	open	—	06-16 02:09
highest temperature in nyc on february 15 2026 34 35f	9	$9.9K	9,901	0	+9,901	open	—	02-15 17:53
highest temperature in nyc on april 12 2026 52 53f	20	$9.7K	9,717	0	+9,717	open	—	04-12 20:00
highest temperature in seoul on january 25 neg 4c	11	$9.6K	9,732	0	+9,732	open	—	01-25 05:15
highest temperature in paris on april 6 2026 19c	17	$9.6K	4,087	5,499	-1,412	open	—	04-06 17:38
highest temperature in toronto on february 9 2026 neg 9c	3	$9.4K	9,436	0	+9,436	open	—	02-09 19:43
Iran leadership change by May 31?	71	$9.3K	5,486	4,627	+860	open	—	05-31 23:46
highest temperature in chicago on march 22 2026 63forbelow	22	$9.3K	9,316	0	+9,316	open	—	03-22 06:13
highest temperature in toronto on march 20 2026 1corbelow	3	$9.0K	8,998	0	+8,998	open	—	03-20 16:02
Iran leadership change by June 30?	98	$8.9K	5,197	4,219	+977	open	—	06-30 05:51
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 15 32corbelow	3	$8.8K	8,841	0	+8,841	open	—	01-15 13:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 08:21:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x05589d…
08-09 18:54:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2a9fec…
08-09 17:45:52	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	400	99¢	$396	0xa922e0…
08-09 17:11:09	bitcoin up or down august 9 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x4b9e84…
08-09 17:06:24	bitcoin up or down august 9 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x122377…
08-09 17:02:21	bitcoin up or down august 9 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x931943…
08-09 14:51:27	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x0b21cb…
08-09 07:52:30	iran leadership change by august 22	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xa7e200…
08-09 06:02:21	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x6b1f4f…
08-09 06:02:21	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	181	96¢	$174	0x289c36…
08-09 05:47:54	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x1f5b06…
08-09 01:15:42	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xac8072…
08-08 21:02:42	ethereum up or down august 8 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x28834e…
08-08 19:45:58	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x6647ed…
08-08 19:33:18	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xaec741…
08-08 19:31:46	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0xc40269…
08-08 19:23:43	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x9f3891…
08-08 17:02:06	ethereum up or down august 8 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9892aa…
08-08 14:46:42	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0xa82498…
08-08 13:02:51	dogecoin up or down august 8 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9ecdc3…
08-08 11:13:21	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x586f79…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0xe7efe1…
08-08 01:02:15	ethereum up or down august 7 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x57525a…
08-08 01:02:15	solana up or down august 7 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3444c0…
08-07 21:07:15	bitcoin up or down august 7 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x437ab7…
08-07 21:04:40	bitcoin up or down august 7 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x65561d…
08-07 21:04:04	bitcoin up or down august 7 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7b0983…
08-07 18:08:25	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x301415…
08-07 16:59:00	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x13ae56…
08-07 13:50:25	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xac11e6…
08-07 13:01:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xed8c68…
08-07 11:09:09	ethereum up or down august 7 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcd3086…
08-07 10:27:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x1a3dad…
08-07 09:37:30	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb9cce1…
08-07 09:36:36	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xd5b6f8…
08-07 07:01:43	solana up or down august 7 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3258a8…
08-07 06:57:52	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x78c20a…
08-07 04:02:28	bnb up or down august 6 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xac0feb…
08-07 03:02:55	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6b7f86…
08-07 03:01:28	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7ec2c3…
08-07 02:00:49	ethereum up or down august 6 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcea9b5…
08-07 01:51:31	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xfe9286…
08-07 01:03:52	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa19b57…
08-07 01:01:35	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10d118…
08-07 01:01:24	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfca077…
08-07 01:01:21	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2bf794…
08-07 00:03:30	dogecoin up or down august 6 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x94fece…
08-07 00:03:24	dogecoin up or down august 6 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xa318d4…
08-06 22:01:30	ethereum up or down august 6 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x44f9fd…
08-06 20:10:08	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x822223…
08-06 20:07:27	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x439bb5…
08-06 20:06:08	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	1,326	100¢	$1,325	0x77fb43…
08-06 20:03:57	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xbe9f7c…
08-06 20:03:48	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc2ca86…
08-06 20:02:02	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0608e7…
08-06 17:02:00	bnb up or down august 6 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x29dff3…
08-06 14:11:35	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeb5093…
08-06 14:05:54	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	681	100¢	$680	0x3c48d0…
08-06 14:05:15	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2a80bc…
08-06 14:05:08	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x141e0b…
08-06 14:03:56	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbe2fa2…
08-06 14:01:45	dogecoin up or down august 6 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x539bd4…
08-06 12:09:59	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xd3349b…
08-06 12:09:53	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe13361…
08-06 12:08:27	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x81b3d2…
08-06 12:07:39	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x2b0d5e…
08-06 12:05:27	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6ceefa…
08-06 12:03:17	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x73f436…
08-06 02:15:36	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xd05eb1…
08-06 00:01:05	solana up or down august 5 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xe073fc…
08-05 19:06:47	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf53bfb…
08-05 19:05:14	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	503	100¢	$502	0x4e3ba9…
08-05 19:05:08	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x689661…
08-05 19:03:32	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7d8bd2…
08-05 12:50:21	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf6b78f…
08-05 05:01:41	dogecoin up or down august 5 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xecc3d2…
08-05 04:19:02	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xf29c2e…
08-05 03:12:26	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb11ba8…
08-05 00:49:11	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674	Yes	BUY	63	21¢	$13	0x11f593…
08-04 23:03:06	dogecoin up or down august 4 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2f5437…
08-04 21:46:56	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x58aa04…
08-04 19:42:14	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0x1477f1…
08-04 18:05:42	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x442b77…
08-04 14:09:56	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x882ee6…
08-04 13:11:15	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x4dd87c…
08-04 13:07:36	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	1,324	100¢	$1,322	0x919a8d…
08-04 13:03:59	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xc3369b…
08-04 13:03:36	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xead30f…
08-04 13:03:35	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x2fe3ff…
08-04 13:03:30	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xd4e30f…
08-04 13:01:48	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xe66393…
08-04 13:01:33	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc02288…
08-04 12:42:44	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0xaba03e…
08-04 10:01:32	dogecoin up or down august 4 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x16199b…
08-04 00:01:56	solana up or down august 3 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9231d5…
08-03 20:06:12	bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xde075d…
08-03 20:05:59	bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	765	100¢	$764	0xe54cf1…
08-03 19:08:03	ethereum up or down august 3 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc3a56f…
08-03 18:22:44	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x79c9df…
08-03 18:06:32	dogecoin up or down august 3 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x55d7c0…