Known-Commotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.23K

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

3,018

Trades

21,416

lifetime

Volume

$111.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-29 14:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 50% -$1,044

Other

46% 52% -$48

Politics

0% 47% -$112

Tech

0% 50% -$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 247 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-15	-$7	28¢	$-4	+$3	05-08 09:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-20	-$4	18¢	$-4	+$0	05-08 09:01
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-15	-$7	18¢	$-3	+$4	05-08 09:00
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-15	-$10	17¢	$-3	+$7	05-08 09:00
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		-60	-$8	4¢	$-3	+$5	05-08 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	—	+80	$39	1¢	$1	-$38	10-29 15:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 08:55 UTC	35	$1.2K	985	880	+105	Down	+$219	02-26 08:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 10:00 UTC	61	$1.1K	1,561	408	+1,152	Up	-$8	02-26 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 08:45 UTC	34	$823	1,239	258	+980	Up	-$200	02-26 08:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 11:45 UTC	51	$701	1,477	800	+677	Down	+$54	02-25 11:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 18:20 UTC	48	$381	765	0	+765	Up	-$16	03-03 18:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 19:00 UTC	63	$349	653	0	+653	Down	-$49	02-24 19:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 16:30 UTC	32	$349	734	0	+734	Down	-$43	03-09 16:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 11:50 UTC	74	$331	660	0	+660	Down	+$2	03-03 11:54
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?	7	$329	299	299	+0	No	+$263	05-12 08:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 14:10 UTC	70	$321	657	0	+657	Down	+$19	03-03 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 13:45 UTC	44	$321	652	0	+652	Down	+$6	03-03 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 10:00 UTC	81	$320	622	0	+622	Down	-$1	03-03 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 17:10 UTC	8	$312	529	12	+517	Down	-$309	03-08 17:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 11:55 UTC	50	$296	596	0	+596	Up	-$12	03-03 11:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 11:40 UTC	59	$291	577	0	+577	Up	-$1	03-03 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 17:35 UTC	43	$288	549	0	+549	Up	-$19	03-03 17:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 13:45 UTC	3	$282	143	143	+0	Down	+$1	03-12 13:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 11:35 UTC	69	$276	532	0	+532	Up	-$11	03-03 11:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 11:30 UTC	66	$274	550	0	+550	Up	+$1	03-03 11:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 20:40 UTC	52	$273	548	0	+548	Up	-$1	03-03 20:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 12:55 UTC	46	$270	536	0	+536	Up	+$3	03-03 12:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 12:45 UTC	59	$262	508	0	+508	Up	-$14	03-03 12:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 10:05 UTC	88	$261	541	0	+541	Down	+$8	03-03 10:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 19:45 UTC	87	$261	523	0	+523	Down	-$3	03-03 19:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 09:00 UTC	78	$260	541	0	+541	Down	+$7	03-03 09:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 14:15 UTC	50	$256	510	0	+510	Up	+$1	03-10 14:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 11:35 UTC	36	$241	338	0	+338	Up	+$2	02-25 11:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 17:25 UTC	61	$239	488	0	+488	Up	+$6	03-03 17:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 10:30 UTC	53	$234	433	0	+433	Down	-$17	03-03 10:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 10:55 UTC	85	$224	457	0	+457	Up	-$5	03-03 10:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	62¢	$5	0xa1d403…
10-29 15:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0xa894ba…
10-29 15:51:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0xc12e7b…
10-29 15:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0x0e4bb3…
10-29 15:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x310c56…
10-29 15:46:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf760ee…
10-29 15:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xaf855a…
10-29 15:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x35dc73…
10-29 15:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	32¢	$6	0xc5134b…
10-29 15:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	88¢	$12	0xa9f4d3…
10-29 15:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xca0e9e…
10-29 15:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	32¢	$6	0xde7e0e…
10-29 15:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0x45a57b…
10-29 15:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x9965b2…
10-29 15:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0xeea429…
10-29 15:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x292c56…
10-29 15:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0x2f823f…
10-29 15:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb03533…
10-29 15:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x40d1c9…
10-29 15:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x474046…
10-29 15:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0x91690a…
10-29 15:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf72feb…
10-29 15:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xd5bb35…
10-29 15:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	82¢	$12	0xdbe310…
10-29 15:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x31d2a6…
10-29 15:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xf2b23c…
10-29 15:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0xd70bad…
10-29 15:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	60¢	$6	0x31ed44…
10-29 15:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x315a39…
10-29 15:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x8b57e7…
10-29 15:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0xbd5454…
10-29 15:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x1e70f3…
10-29 15:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x19b6a3…
10-29 15:17:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5b28f5…
10-29 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x713d8c…
10-29 15:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x1f32ff…
10-29 15:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf978f2…
10-29 15:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0x297819…
10-29 15:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xadb9a4…
10-29 15:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xf0c406…
10-29 15:12:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x88d3d4…
10-29 15:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd56605…
10-29 15:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x0175b9…
10-29 15:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xf57a53…
10-29 15:10:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x7e4ee2…
10-29 15:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0xa1c28c…
10-29 15:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x04f44e…
10-29 15:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x6a8fb6…
10-29 15:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0xfe4730…
10-29 15:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x1d0b39…
10-29 15:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x16e457…
10-29 14:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x0326e4…
10-29 14:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xdd6bb6…
10-29 14:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	58¢	$10	0x2ea9eb…
10-29 14:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x174d04…
10-29 14:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x7cd185…
10-29 14:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xdfa768…
10-29 14:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x6591de…
10-29 14:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xae7308…
10-29 14:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	70¢	$11	0x4778ef…
10-29 14:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xc0a5d3…
10-29 14:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	17	63¢	$11	0x3c1888…
10-29 14:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x4ac52b…
10-29 14:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xae81db…
10-29 14:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	38¢	$5	0xcad9dc…
10-29 14:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x2006ad…
10-29 14:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0x62a24d…
10-29 14:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x84e806…
10-29 14:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xdb662d…
10-29 14:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0xcf9c8a…
10-29 14:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x43ab98…
10-29 14:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xc1bf81…
10-29 14:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x74a250…
10-29 14:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0xa9a947…
10-29 14:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xc14c2a…
10-29 14:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x4f03ac…
10-29 14:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x0cca1b…
10-29 14:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x0d29c2…
10-29 14:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xafbcfe…
10-29 14:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x0f983e…
10-29 14:36:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xae824a…
10-29 14:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0xb283df…
10-29 14:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	63¢	$7	0x446671…
10-29 14:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x47f1a2…
10-29 14:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$4	0x28e5f5…
10-29 14:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x766ac6…
10-29 14:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0xdaa513…
10-29 14:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x664dee…
10-29 14:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xd551f6…
10-29 14:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x39c966…
10-29 14:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	71¢	$7	0x927612…
10-29 14:17:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0xfb1150…
10-29 14:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0x0063b4…
10-29 14:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x024ca8…
10-29 14:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xe805b9…
10-29 14:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	37¢	$8	0x2503f0…
10-29 14:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$4	0xf41614…
10-29 14:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	47¢	$7	0x429674…
10-29 14:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x4f513b…
10-29 13:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$4	0x22e251…