Known-Commotion 0xd43ea3…ed3604
new
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$6
Unrealized P&L
-$19
Hit rate
55.1%
Resolved
10
Trades
39
lifetime
Volume
$243
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$165
28 positions
First seen
2026-05-08
last 05-09 12:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Other
78% 40% +$6
Politics
20% — —
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
2 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 9? No -30 $-30 100¢ $-30 +$0 05-09 11:25
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 9? No -20 $-19 100¢ $-19 +$0 05-09 12:12
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -15 $-10 64¢ $-10 $-0 05-08 09:00
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No -15 $-8 57¢ $-9 $-0 05-08 09:00
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -15 $-8 56¢ $-8 $-0 05-08 09:00
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10? No +12 $8 67¢ $8 $-0 05-09 12:13
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 9? No -8 $-8 100¢ $-8 +$0 05-09 12:11
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes -60 $-8 12¢ $-8 +$0 05-08 09:00
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9? No +9 $7 80¢ $7 $-0 05-08 23:01
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -15 $-7 47¢ $-7 $-0 05-08 09:00
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -15 $-7 46¢ $-7 +$0 05-08 09:00
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 9? No +19 $9 28¢ $5 $-4 05-08 22:01
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 9? Yes +5 $2 100¢ $5 +$3 05-08 23:46
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 9? No +5 $4 86¢ $4 +$1 05-08 22:01
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? No +8 $4 54¢ $4 $-0 05-08 22:41
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -20 $-4 20¢ $-4 $-0 05-08 09:01
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes -30 $-4 12¢ $-4 +$0 05-08 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 9? Yes +5 $2 68¢ $3 +$1 05-08 22:01
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? Yes -35 $-6 9¢ $-3 +$3 05-08 09:00
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? Yes +34 $9 8¢ $3 $-6 05-08 23:01
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9? No +10 $5 29¢ $3 $-2 05-09 00:26
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10? Yes +5 $3 52¢ $3 $-0 05-09 12:13
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 9? No +19 $2 6¢ $1 $-1 05-09 12:11
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10? Yes +9 $1 12¢ $1 $-0 05-09 12:13
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 9? Yes +34 $11 1¢ $0 $-10 05-08 22:01
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 9? Yes +6 $2 4¢ $0 $-1 05-08 22:01
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 9? Yes +17 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 05-08 23:01
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 9? Yes +17 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 05-08 22:01