Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$66

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

Trades

479

lifetime

Volume

$1.22M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.55K

Open exposure

$22.9K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-02 15:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

54% 96% +$2,279

Other

37% 83% -$7,563

Crypto

5% 100% +$232

Sports

2% 100% +$29

Tech

2% 100% +$27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+16,820	$14,402	82¢	$13.7K	-$693	10-02 15:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+5,640	$4,343	88¢	$5.0K	+$649	09-28 13:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	+3,000	$2,820	100¢	$3.0K	+$170	09-28 13:53
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+984	$813	91¢	$896	+$83	08-18 03:54
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+200	$146	58¢	$117	-$29	09-05 16:19
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	+984	$224	9¢	$89	-$135	08-13 18:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+61	$36	84¢	$51	+$15	07-02 04:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+43	$34	99¢	$42	+$8	07-18 10:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	19	$110.4K	71,312	42,007	+29,305	Yes	+$811	06-16 14:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	78	$55.0K	27,615	27,615	+0	No	+$138	04-28 06:23
trump out as president by march 31	7	$53.7K	26,947	26,947	+0	No	-$27	03-24 22:21
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	2	$52.6K	26,361	26,361	+0	Yes	-$26	01-31 05:33
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	27	$49.4K	37,371	12,351	+25,021	No	+$289	04-01 17:54
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	3	$32.2K	16,100	16,100	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 16:26
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	20	$29.3K	29,349	0	+29,349	Yes	+$29	07-08 02:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	21	$28.4K	28,491	0	+28,491	Yes	+$71	06-15 04:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$28.2K	28,392	0	+28,392	No	+$227	06-03 03:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 12:30 UTC	18	$28.0K	13,976	14,014	-38	Up	+$5	01-23 05:48
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$27.7K	27,823	0	+27,823	Yes	+$83	05-02 16:55
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	7	$27.5K	27,640	0	+27,640	Yes	+$181	04-28 20:16
Will Trump dance today?	3	$27.4K	13,714	13,713	+1	Yes	+$0	04-28 20:08
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	2	$27.4K	27,418	0	+27,418	Yes	+$55	04-17 14:39
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$27.3K	27,350	0	+27,350	Yes	+$55	04-09 00:44
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$27.2K	27,295	0	+27,295	Yes	+$55	04-07 02:30
will iran strike israel on march 10	24	$26.9K	38,959	12,134	+26,826	Yes	+$40	03-16 03:46
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$26.8K	26,866	0	+26,866	Yes	+$54	03-24 22:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	1	$26.8K	26,781	0	+26,781	Yes	+$27	03-12 00:53
us strikes iraq by march 7	15	$26.7K	26,753	0	+26,753	Yes	+$27	03-09 12:06
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	1	$26.7K	26,725	0	+26,725	Yes	+$27	03-04 20:55
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$26.7K	26,698	0	+26,698	Yes	+$27	03-04 18:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$26.6K	26,671	0	+26,671	Yes	+$27	03-01 11:58
new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547	2	$26.6K	26,644	0	+26,644	No	+$68	02-24 04:46
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	1	$26.5K	26,539	0	+26,539	Yes	+$53	02-06 23:44
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$26.3K	26,480	0	+26,480	Yes	+$144	02-01 07:12
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$26.3K	26,335	0	+26,335	No	+$26	01-27 02:44
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$25.6K	25,836	0	+25,836	No	+$242	09-09 08:28
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	4	$23.6K	23,585	0	+23,585	Yes	+$24	01-23 18:48
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	1	$23.2K	23,254	0	+23,254	No	+$93	08-01 00:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 15:59:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	160	85¢	$136	0xc9debf…
09-30 15:50:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	16,260	86¢	$13,984	0x28bfb4…
09-28 13:53:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	3,000	94¢	$2,820	0xb77d40…
09-28 13:51:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	5,640	77¢	$4,343	0xb3fe6a…
09-12 09:47:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,023	99¢	$3,002	0xd51e76…
09-12 00:06:58	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x0e0b0c…
09-11 21:10:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16,512	18¢	$2,972	0x197235…
09-11 12:37:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	364	22¢	$80	0xc1b3e8…
09-10 06:13:22	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x7f0fb6…
09-10 06:08:52	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x09ef40…
09-09 08:35:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,777	0¢	$39	0x77fd09…
09-09 08:28:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7,816	100¢	$7,777	0x213576…
09-09 06:57:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,777	0¢	$8	0x4a6a12…
09-08 08:06:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,319	100¢	$6,287	0xe83d7b…
09-05 16:19:58	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	198	73¢	$145	0x52e4a2…
09-05 09:49:39	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x88a009…
09-04 06:59:58	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x4f6d61…
09-03 21:57:18	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xe5b8ee…
09-03 08:34:22	Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x0d2fb3…
08-26 10:41:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,924	98¢	$3,861	0x39dc72…
08-23 21:33:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	68¢	$1,360	0x5adfe7…
08-21 13:33:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,555	70¢	$3,888	0xaa0dce…
08-20 15:19:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,222	99¢	$2,191	0xbe9fa7…
08-19 22:00:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	512	70¢	$358	0x9594c5…
08-19 21:35:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0x7235bf…
08-19 21:14:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	89	70¢	$62	0x0db9e2…
08-19 21:08:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,469	70¢	$4,529	0xe1e9c0…
08-18 03:54:28	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1,296	90¢	$1,167	0x490805…
08-17 14:23:00	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x2399cf…
08-17 11:09:55	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	62	90¢	$56	0xd52e75…
08-13 19:03:01	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	414	87¢	$360	0x637903…
08-13 19:02:58	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x6ba64a…
08-13 19:02:52	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x43f38f…
08-13 19:02:51	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x58515b…
08-13 19:02:49	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0xf7745d…
08-13 19:02:49	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	114	87¢	$99	0x7f9b3f…
08-13 19:02:49	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1,767	87¢	$1,535	0x6407a4…
08-13 18:52:36	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x14d495…
08-13 18:52:36	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x0605ed…
08-13 18:52:18	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x906cb6…
08-13 18:52:18	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	450	63¢	$284	0x5c0bb0…
08-13 18:51:01	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0x266c2f…
08-13 18:50:42	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	174	66¢	$115	0x9f6bae…
08-13 18:50:31	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	16	66¢	$11	0xee4ab4…
08-13 18:50:30	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x1c2f34…
08-13 18:50:27	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0xf76cd8…
08-13 18:48:45	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	262	60¢	$157	0xd0a63c…
08-13 18:47:15	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	184	65¢	$120	0x3ed4ac…
08-13 18:35:03	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0x86346a…
08-13 18:34:19	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	153	45¢	$69	0x16d632…
08-13 18:33:09	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf8a061…
08-13 18:32:39	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	388	46¢	$178	0x070e31…
08-13 18:31:33	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x3da80f…
08-13 18:31:24	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x523184…
08-13 18:31:21	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	26	45¢	$12	0xab1672…
08-13 18:31:09	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x4fb0cc…
08-13 18:31:04	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa09fe4…
08-13 18:30:54	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x875661…
08-13 18:30:49	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x38f867…
08-13 18:30:46	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x3ef5c9…
08-13 18:30:33	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	995	50¢	$498	0x89383e…
08-13 18:30:12	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9857e9…
08-13 18:30:06	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x4684ea…
08-13 18:26:28	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	215	49¢	$105	0x3f80ea…
08-13 18:25:19	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	55	46¢	$25	0x0cc1ab…
08-13 18:25:04	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x116c14…
08-13 18:24:58	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0x8510a8…
08-13 18:24:54	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x7b8dd0…
08-13 18:24:54	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x5cdc10…
08-13 18:24:51	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	44	49¢	$22	0x933190…
08-13 18:24:04	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xb5b5fb…
08-13 18:23:28	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x823fc5…
08-13 18:21:40	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	55	49¢	$27	0x61df5d…
08-13 18:21:27	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x81dbda…
08-13 18:17:48	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	46	51¢	$23	0x35e63b…
08-13 18:16:33	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x524721…
08-13 11:37:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,156	100¢	$2,152	0x97d24a…
08-01 00:14:50	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	23,254	100¢	$23,161	0x053f6d…
07-27 09:38:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x30145a…
07-26 20:18:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23,155	100¢	$23,132	0xcaee89…
07-21 21:14:34	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	23,124	100¢	$23,055	0x316557…
07-19 16:11:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x98d275…
07-18 12:17:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x3870dd…
07-18 10:10:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	6,438	93¢	$5,987	0x97a380…
07-18 10:10:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	80¢	$34	0xb6aaf5…
07-08 02:26:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	19,921	100¢	$19,901	0x5e01fd…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc6f75d…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa9614e…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x99e2f3…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x986792…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x8c43e4…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5d4cea…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4f2c9b…
07-08 02:26:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2e4242…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xeca232…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd37cb1…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb93d95…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xa712db…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x928994…
07-08 02:26:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6a1ea1…