Suspicious-Glockenspiel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-09 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$1

Politics

27% — —

Sports

19% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$2.8K	1,508	1,508	+0	Yes	+$1	04-22 12:00
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$1.3K	654	654	+0	open	—	04-24 01:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$295	171	171	+0	open	—	05-28 09:50
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$271	255	255	+0	open	—	06-04 14:16
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$225	144	144	+0	open	—	05-31 02:16
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	5	$217	120	120	+0	open	—	06-09 17:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	3	$214	110	110	+0	open	—	06-10 00:58
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$214	112	112	+0	open	—	06-08 17:55
Iran leadership change by June 30?	3	$211	110	110	+0	open	—	06-04 23:19
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$196	105	104	+1	open	—	05-29 01:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$189	107	107	+0	open	—	05-26 02:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$107	185	0	+185	open	—	06-10 05:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$100	102	102	+0	open	—	06-05 08:47
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$96	229	229	+0	open	—	06-07 03:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$67	115	115	+0	open	—	05-30 18:06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$54	101	101	+0	open	—	05-25 04:09
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	05-25 12:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$49	116	116	+0	open	—	06-09 12:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$41	0	111	-111	open	—	05-25 19:16
Will Alberta join the US?	3	$34	370	370	+0	open	—	06-05 16:42
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$28	1,171	1,171	+0	open	—	04-21 02:55
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$18	76	76	+0	No	+$0	04-22 04:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$14	184	184	+0	open	—	06-01 01:51
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	2	$11	172	172	+0	open	—	06-06 04:55
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$10	118	118	+0	open	—	05-28 06:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$8	98	98	+0	open	—	05-21 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 05:46:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0xde6c87…
06-10 05:46:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	155	58¢	$90	0xa673d0…
06-10 00:58:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	110	97¢	$107	0xc0f656…
06-09 22:32:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xd212c8…
06-09 22:32:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$63	0x858184…
06-09 17:33:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x6edb51…
06-09 17:33:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	115	89¢	$102	0x1d00c1…
06-09 16:11:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	78	92¢	$72	0xa75ecf…
06-09 16:11:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x9233f6…
06-09 16:11:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0x70dd73…
06-09 12:20:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	116	22¢	$26	0x7358fe…
06-09 09:38:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	116	20¢	$23	0x36accc…
06-08 17:55:57	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	112	97¢	$109	0x480adb…
06-08 15:25:15	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	112	94¢	$105	0xa4e84e…
06-07 03:42:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x4f1115…
06-07 01:32:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	21¢	$20	0xb479fa…
06-07 01:32:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	21¢	$27	0x6cc135…
06-06 21:09:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	229	21¢	$48	0xc10fd4…
06-06 04:55:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	172	3¢	$6	0x2dc402…
06-06 02:24:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0x530234…
06-05 16:42:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	112	5¢	$5	0xef00c7…
06-05 16:42:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	258	5¢	$12	0xd22f80…
06-05 12:09:18	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	370	5¢	$17	0x0aabb0…
06-05 08:47:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	49¢	$50	0xc36dac…
06-05 06:14:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xf7a716…
06-04 23:19:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xd33431…
06-04 23:19:31	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0x13560f…
06-04 19:27:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x4a4454…
06-04 14:16:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	81	56¢	$45	0xe5265b…
06-04 14:16:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	37	56¢	$21	0xac2aa9…
06-04 14:16:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x4d34cb…
06-04 12:36:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	138	54¢	$75	0xa718f7…
06-01 01:51:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0x096d45…
05-31 18:34:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	147	4¢	$6	0x5e3e17…
05-31 16:11:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	184	4¢	$7	0xf546f5…
05-31 02:16:49	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	144	79¢	$114	0x47b9f7…
05-31 00:56:03	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	144	77¢	$112	0x6d86ce…
05-30 18:06:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	29¢	$33	0xbaa082…
05-30 15:17:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	29¢	$33	0x533225…
05-30 10:39:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	25	51¢	$13	0x69a495…
05-30 10:38:17	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	92	51¢	$47	0x324a85…
05-30 09:30:29	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	117	51¢	$60	0x4f5a80…
05-29 01:35:38	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0x293724…
05-29 01:31:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	57	95¢	$54	0x249abf…
05-28 17:09:21	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x1610ca…
05-28 13:39:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xd3bf96…
05-28 13:39:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	97	92¢	$89	0x516d57…
05-28 09:50:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0xea0cea…
05-28 09:50:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	41	87¢	$36	0xe2d46b…
05-28 06:46:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	64	80¢	$51	0x15f353…
05-28 06:44:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	5¢	$5	0xb06ba7…
05-28 06:44:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x49562b…
05-28 02:23:02	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	4¢	$5	0xa8f32d…
05-27 19:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	28	88¢	$25	0xc43b37…
05-27 19:35:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	79	88¢	$69	0x8ebd8b…
05-27 17:02:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xe1e089…
05-27 17:02:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	97	88¢	$85	0x7ea075…
05-26 02:18:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0xea036e…
05-26 02:17:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x20323e…
05-25 21:29:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$93	0x1baf01…
05-25 19:16:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	37¢	$41	0x7990a9…
05-25 12:29:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0xd711a4…
05-25 12:29:09	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x2dcf5d…
05-25 09:14:13	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xbdcd64…
05-25 04:09:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	27¢	$27	0xb8a4f2…
05-25 01:43:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xec7db4…
05-25 01:43:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	26¢	$21	0x2440cf…
05-24 08:31:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0x615e22…
05-24 06:16:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xc96e70…
05-24 06:16:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x880fa1…
05-21 11:25:05	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	98	4¢	$4	0xe3a8be…
05-21 08:57:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	98	4¢	$4	0xec2c40…
04-24 01:44:16	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	654	98¢	$644	0xb6f05e…
04-23 23:37:02	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x75b741…
04-23 23:36:56	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	635	98¢	$625	0xcdcd72…
04-22 12:00:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	751	95¢	$711	0xa49dd9…
04-22 10:32:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	751	94¢	$710	0xcd3a64…
04-22 04:59:26	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	76	12¢	$9	0x791c33…
04-22 03:01:28	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	76	12¢	$9	0xee3cda…
04-22 01:27:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	757	94¢	$710	0x6b6d4e…
04-21 21:56:24	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	757	94¢	$711	0x149503…
04-21 02:55:04	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	1,171	1¢	$14	0xe25195…
04-21 01:32:12	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	655	1¢	$8	0xeeae53…
04-21 01:32:12	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	516	1¢	$6	0xdef992…