Ornery-Soup — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.1%

Resolved

Trades

138

lifetime

Volume

$31.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$231

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 11-02 01:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

68% 0% -$1

Other

24% 40% +$15

Sports

7% 50% $0

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$2.5K	1,273	1,273	+0	open	—	06-30 09:21
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$2.5K	1,257	1,257	+0	open	—	06-29 14:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$2.4K	1,201	1,201	+0	No	-$1	06-29 13:57
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$2.4K	1,195	1,195	+0	open	—	07-01 00:04
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$2.3K	1,142	1,142	+0	open	—	07-01 00:38
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$2.2K	1,131	1,131	+0	open	—	06-30 23:28
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$2.2K	1,104	1,104	+0	open	—	06-30 08:21
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	3	$2.0K	1,025	1,025	+0	open	—	05-13 14:43
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	3	$2.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-13 14:03
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	4	$2.0K	994	994	+0	open	—	05-14 15:42
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?	3	$1.9K	955	955	+0	open	—	05-15 14:12
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$1.8K	927	927	+0	open	—	05-15 15:25
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	3	$1.8K	920	920	-0	No	-$1	05-14 14:15
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	1	$433	849	0	+849	cancelled	-$8	07-27 10:53
atp tsitsip fonseca 2026 08 05	2	$428	955	0	+955	Joao Fonseca	-$428	08-05 16:00
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-08-23?	2	$276	575	25	+550	Yes	+$297	08-17 13:22
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	7	$208	104	104	+0	No	$0	05-16 13:31
Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	3	$206	103	103	+0	open	—	10-15 04:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	4	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	10-21 14:47
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	4	$170	85	85	+0	open	—	10-26 09:17
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$163	81	81	+0	No	$0	05-20 09:11
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$133	67	67	+0	open	—	06-29 14:59
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$124	72	72	+0	open	—	05-14 16:09
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$123	62	62	+0	No	$0	07-01 00:46
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?	2	$123	274	18	+256	Yes	+$148	08-14 04:16
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$112	56	56	+0	No	$0	05-13 15:21
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	4	$111	55	55	+0	No	$0	06-30 09:31
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	3	$108	54	54	+0	open	—	11-02 00:22
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?	3	$105	53	53	+0	No	$0	11-02 01:32
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$96	48	48	-0	open	—	10-17 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 01:32:48	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xb1488d…
11-02 00:22:58	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x274412…
11-02 00:16:04	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xb6c100…
11-02 00:07:13	Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xbf1e69…
11-01 23:57:31	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x7902de…
11-01 23:48:39	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0x32ca36…
11-01 23:21:48	Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xbe9152…
11-01 23:15:25	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x453211…
11-01 23:09:01	Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x715a35…
10-26 09:17:29	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x470366…
10-26 09:07:50	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x626797…
10-26 09:01:17	Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xa6be79…
10-26 08:51:53	Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc09485…
10-26 08:42:48	Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf05fac…
10-26 08:32:59	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd4cbdc…
10-26 08:23:54	Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7f7fa0…
10-26 08:16:30	Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x79c8c5…
10-26 08:08:48	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3f5381…
10-21 14:47:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$98	0xd81af5…
10-21 14:39:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x6e59fe…
10-21 14:33:08	Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x941829…
10-21 14:23:36	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xb68a99…
10-21 14:17:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x2f83d9…
10-21 14:10:38	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xb85358…
10-21 14:00:47	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x3737cc…
10-21 13:52:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xe992f6…
10-21 13:42:47	Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4a95ef…
10-17 14:29:45	Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xa13c8e…
10-17 14:20:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3f9770…
10-17 14:11:08	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xc64f39…
10-17 14:05:20	Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xc2119a…
10-17 13:57:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xfd5446…
10-17 13:50:11	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbe17c6…
10-17 13:42:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$21	0xc634d0…
10-17 13:33:11	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6ed87d…
10-15 04:30:10	Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$103	0x9b6581…
10-15 04:24:11	Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0xcb5bbf…
10-15 04:17:25	Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x794b41…
10-15 04:09:29	Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x94ce82…
10-15 04:03:14	Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5d1142…
10-15 03:56:01	Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x8e432d…
10-15 03:47:22	Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1a2914…
10-15 03:37:19	Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf140e3…
10-15 03:29:16	Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x13b74c…
08-17 13:22:52	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	SELL	25	45¢	$11	0x8d96ce…
08-17 12:51:12	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	BUY	575	46¢	$265	0xe6c3d6…
08-14 04:16:48	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?	Yes	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0xb2ca8f…
08-14 03:24:21	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?	Yes	BUY	274	42¢	$115	0xe0ebf6…
08-05 16:00:38	atp tsitsip fonseca 2026 08 05	Stefanos Tsitsipas	BUY	372	46¢	$171	0x9bb47e…
08-05 16:00:36	atp tsitsip fonseca 2026 08 05	Stefanos Tsitsipas	BUY	583	44¢	$257	0x95f890…
07-27 10:53:19	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	849	51¢	$433	0x0e1550…
07-01 00:46:14	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xd6cdb0…
07-01 00:38:46	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,142	99¢	$1,131	0x6d7232…
07-01 00:29:46	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xff7c1e…
07-01 00:23:11	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,078	99¢	$1,069	0xda87b5…
07-01 00:13:10	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x043d48…
07-01 00:04:25	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,195	99¢	$1,185	0x7158b2…
06-30 23:54:47	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x61fa01…
06-30 23:46:43	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x1e1c5a…
06-30 23:37:07	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,172	99¢	$1,164	0x72fc8a…
06-30 23:28:17	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,131	99¢	$1,122	0x9c7848…
06-30 23:21:49	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x7a8033…
06-30 23:12:05	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x59b161…
06-30 23:05:10	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,131	99¢	$1,123	0x9fd8f3…
06-30 09:31:37	Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xdc6794…
06-30 09:21:40	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,273	99¢	$1,258	0x493c4d…
06-30 09:15:14	Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4897cf…
06-30 09:08:02	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,225	99¢	$1,211	0x4c74a5…
06-30 08:58:16	Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1a51a4…
06-30 08:40:17	Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8093cd…
06-30 08:27:14	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x703f70…
06-30 08:21:01	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	813	99¢	$807	0xffb2ce…
06-30 08:15:05	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	291	99¢	$289	0xa7da6b…
06-30 08:04:47	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x2128e1…
06-30 07:58:14	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,104	99¢	$1,098	0xb61ffc…
06-29 15:10:14	Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x7ef580…
06-29 14:59:56	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0x2682bb…
06-29 14:51:55	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x025654…
06-29 14:35:26	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x29d9f5…
06-29 14:25:52	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,257	99¢	$1,243	0xdc70bf…
06-29 14:19:05	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb9c595…
06-29 14:09:04	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,235	99¢	$1,222	0x80a027…
06-29 14:03:11	Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x10af12…
06-29 13:57:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	868	99¢	$857	0x6d0b75…
06-29 13:47:58	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0xe2e7f1…
06-29 13:38:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	333	99¢	$329	0x852661…
06-29 13:29:55	Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1940f6…
06-29 13:20:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,201	99¢	$1,187	0xbc541c…
05-20 09:11:20	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0xfb542f…
05-20 09:03:19	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xab9639…
05-20 08:54:01	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xe5796a…
05-20 08:46:28	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb8b480…
05-20 08:39:33	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x722392…
05-20 08:32:38	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6ac291…
05-20 08:23:39	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xa80ba6…
05-20 08:16:43	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x78a4ac…
05-20 08:07:17	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5c75e4…
05-16 17:26:21	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xd796b9…
05-16 13:31:39	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x22ff57…
05-16 06:07:35	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4b35de…