Optimistic-Cowboy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$609

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

509

Trades

1,709

lifetime

Volume

$40.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$87

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 11:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 185 days

Categories

Other

68% 65% +$210

Politics

15% 54% +$275

Sports

13% 61% +$214

Crypto

3% 30% -$48

Pop-Culture

1% 40% -$29

Tech

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+150	$67	38¢	$57	-$10	10-28 12:37
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	No	-30	-$24	50¢	$-15	+$9	07-12 19:34
will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	+17	$12	84¢	$14	+$2	06-08 14:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	29	$1.7K	1,152	1,152	+0	Yes	+$37	03-30 16:35
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$1.3K	691	691	+0	No	+$8	07-18 22:15
Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?	3	$954	482	482	+0	No	+$9	09-01 10:49
will wti reach 95 by july 20 2026	16	$750	466	466	+0	No	+$13	07-24 20:20
will gas hit 3pt00 low by july 31 20260630204749456	14	$653	329	329	+0	No	+$3	08-01 08:55
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	31	$622	826	716	+110	No	-$93	03-20 17:12
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 6?	2	$570	290	290	+0	No	+$1	05-06 16:28
will gas hit high 3pt50 by march 31	5	$543	272	272	+0	Yes	+$1	03-10 11:18
will wti reach 120 in august 2026	3	$541	285	285	+0	No	+$12	07-28 17:14
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 13 221 752 344	5	$527	300	300	+0	No	+$17	03-13 13:20
Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?	2	$524	544	0	+544	Yes	+$20	05-02 07:14
will wti dip to 20 in august 2026	3	$496	250	250	+0	No	+$1	07-28 15:22
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	3	$495	356	356	+0	Yes	-$3	03-12 13:35
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	8	$474	354	354	+0	No	+$22	03-02 08:30
Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?	5	$462	487	0	+487	Yes	+$24	05-01 07:43
will gas hit 4pt75 high by august 31 20260728213741794	8	$424	216	216	+0	No	+$8	09-01 10:49
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	5	$422	298	297	+0	No	+$3	03-30 16:01
Will Benfica finish 2nd in the Primeira Liga for the 2025-26 season?	2	$397	398	0	+398	No	+$1	05-16 21:28
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 18?	3	$387	200	200	+0	Yes	+$7	05-18 20:43
will gas hit 2pt50 low by july 31 20260630204749457	13	$381	192	192	+0	No	+$4	07-27 18:52
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15?	14	$378	330	330	+0	No	+$203	05-15 14:13
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election in the lisbon district	18	$378	765	635	+130	No	+$58	01-18 21:42
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	4	$372	397	0	+397	open	—	10-29 11:35
will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by march 31 656 625 393	5	$364	191	191	+0	Yes	+$18	03-10 10:26
will gas hit 3pt25 low by july 31 20260630204749455	6	$361	192	172	+20	No	+$3	08-01 08:58
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?	2	$356	311	61	+250	Yes	+$16	04-08 10:01
will gas hit high 4pt00 by march 31	5	$346	325	51	+274	Yes	+$4	03-31 08:33
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$341	254	254	+0	Yes	+$17	01-15 21:10
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$324	300	300	+0	open	—	06-08 14:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 18 2026?	1	$320	323	0	+323	No	+$3	05-22 06:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 11:35:50	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	136	93¢	$127	0xd35098…
10-28 12:37:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x1625f7…
10-28 12:36:58	Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x4b7a0e…
10-28 12:14:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	130	44¢	$57	0x131b32…
10-28 12:13:44	Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	130	33¢	$43	0x69eb21…
10-27 12:14:57	Will US gas hit $4.18 (Low) the week of October 26?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe13831…
10-27 12:11:21	Will gas hit $4.70 (High) by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x672f19…
10-27 12:11:11	Will gas hit $4.80 (High) by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x760c1a…
10-27 10:56:41	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	154	93¢	$143	0xf22da7…
10-27 10:54:12	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	SELL	154	7¢	$10	0xc9e74b…
10-27 10:49:23	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x018fb8…
10-27 10:47:50	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0x4cbd38…
10-27 07:22:57	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x185787…
10-27 07:22:48	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	34	7¢	$2	0x71c0bd…
10-27 07:22:15	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	187	7¢	$12	0xaa027b…
10-27 07:21:53	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	No	BUY	163	6¢	$10	0xd14054…
10-26 16:54:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x22c3fa…
10-25 16:39:02	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x86df58…
10-25 16:38:33	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by April 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0ef190…
10-25 16:38:12	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	95¢	$64	0x172e0a…
10-25 16:37:41	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by April 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xb5a853…
10-22 11:04:03	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	172	98¢	$169	0x524eba…
10-22 08:55:39	Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbb30b9…
10-22 08:55:32	Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x97235e…
10-20 10:50:06	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?	No	BUY	98	30¢	$29	0x11b2f3…
10-20 10:43:17	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?	No	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x15d726…
10-08 03:14:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x3103ca…
10-07 10:45:05	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0xff5335…
10-07 09:59:47	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x54f594…
09-23 22:48:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0x403b80…
09-19 21:14:59	Will Sporting CP vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xdabe5f…
09-18 12:33:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xf4e1c7…
09-15 13:07:46	Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by September 30?	No	BUY	74	93¢	$69	0xa310fa…
09-13 17:14:55	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	23	72¢	$17	0xaef0f5…
09-12 23:41:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x979ccf…
09-09 08:56:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x3dd53a…
09-09 08:56:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x4e138f…
09-07 05:55:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xd2f2b0…
09-04 16:15:40	will wti reach 110 in september 2026	Yes	SELL	208	7¢	$15	0x7e8a9e…
09-04 16:12:13	lindsay clancy sentenced to prison time	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0xe8f60a…
09-04 16:10:28	lindsay clancy sentenced to prison time	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x734cd2…
09-03 05:58:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x47aedc…
09-02 17:47:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xb46b09…
09-01 21:50:25	Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x760be5…
09-01 21:49:15	Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4e76d0…
09-01 17:49:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	108	7¢	$8	0xa1bb75…
09-01 11:22:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x042afc…
09-01 11:21:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	99	6¢	$6	0x119255…
09-01 11:09:52	Will gas hit $3.00 (Low) by August 31?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xf8918d…
09-01 11:08:18	Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x632efe…
09-01 11:06:42	Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8baa2b…
09-01 10:49:39	Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by August 31?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x1e91e1…
09-01 10:49:37	Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?	No	SELL	482	100¢	$482	0x20808f…
09-01 10:49:34	Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31?	No	SELL	166	100¢	$166	0xde5ba0…
09-01 10:49:33	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	SELL	118	100¢	$118	0x1f6d56…
08-31 16:21:57	Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xea49fe…
08-31 15:43:12	Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xd105af…
08-31 15:41:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$93	0xc0ccc8…
08-31 11:28:29	Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xee456d…
08-31 11:27:14	Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x263dfb…
08-31 11:26:59	Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xae582d…
08-31 11:26:42	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xc9d45a…
08-30 09:07:25	Will gas hit $3.70 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xcb2539…
08-30 09:05:40	Will gas hit $3.70 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xd5bd84…
08-29 12:39:15	Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	467	98¢	$458	0x2a02c5…
08-29 08:43:45	Will gas hit $3.50 (Low) by August 31?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x48d611…
08-29 08:43:45	Will gas hit $3.50 (Low) by August 31?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x053b69…
08-28 19:51:04	Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	45	52¢	$23	0xa2c578…
08-28 17:27:00	Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	45	48¢	$22	0xea027b…
08-28 15:57:28	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0xb2359d…
08-28 14:29:25	Will gas hit $3.50 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x0a798a…
08-27 12:54:46	Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xac57ef…
08-27 09:23:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x965706…
08-27 09:06:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xec1afb…
08-26 23:05:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026?	No	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0xd4e76e…
08-26 13:36:09	Will gas hit $3.50 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3dfdbf…
08-26 13:04:54	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdf26be…
08-26 00:02:37	Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 2.75T in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x461c42…
08-25 13:15:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	381	0¢	$1	0x7a1779…
08-25 13:15:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	381	0¢	$1	0x10f23b…
08-25 09:53:30	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x82eab5…
08-24 17:13:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026?	No	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xb3c5cf…
08-24 16:18:12	Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	13	57¢	$7	0xe92f47…
08-24 14:51:00	Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.25T in 2026?	No	SELL	15	82¢	$13	0x6fec30…
08-24 14:50:58	Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.25T in 2026?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x568544…
08-24 14:03:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	BUY	93	61¢	$57	0x87cc13…
08-24 14:02:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xa01fdc…
08-24 13:09:28	Will gas hit $4.75 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xe6e632…
08-24 13:09:16	Will gas hit $5.00 (High) by August 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x65a098…
08-23 13:51:51	Will gas hit $3.00 (Low) by August 31?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x1243a6…
08-22 08:59:12	por spo alv 2026 08 22 btts	Yes	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xaf66b9…
08-22 00:52:31	will bitcoin hit 100k by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0xa807eb…
08-21 23:13:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x787e55…
08-21 21:07:21	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x95115b…
08-21 17:10:43	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 29 2026 20260724221849660	No	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x8e97c9…
08-21 15:06:46	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x1594a8…
08-21 12:00:48	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	SELL	134	7¢	$9	0x7aa66d…
08-21 02:37:33	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	BUY	161	3¢	$5	0x7768f3…
08-20 15:57:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 21 2026 20260724221849652	No	BUY	67	5¢	$3	0x8f9fad…
08-20 15:22:34	wti closes above 85 on august 20 2026	No	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x49817d…