Noisy-Trellis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

33.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$476

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-26 18:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 20% $-25

Other

20% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-43	$-2	4¢	$-2	$-0	06-26 18:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	3	$63	172	43	+128	Down	+$23	05-09 17:00
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?	1	$22	34	0	+34	open	—	04-27 13:23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	1	$21	37	0	+37	open	—	04-27 13:21
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 28?	1	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	04-27 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$20	41	0	+41	open	—	05-19 00:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 9?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$-0	05-09 17:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$-0	05-09 17:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9?	2	$19	11	11	+0	No	$-0	05-09 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	4	$19	44	0	+44	Up	$-3	05-09 17:01
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-09 17:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	2	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	05-09 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	05-16 16:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	2	$15	29	0	+29	Up	$-5	05-09 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$13	29	29	+0	Up	$-6	05-09 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	2	$13	82	0	+82	open	—	05-19 00:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$13	25	0	+25	open	—	05-19 00:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-04 12:22
Canadiens vs. Sabres	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-19 00:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-18 23:45
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-19 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-18 23:56
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$10	58	0	+58	Up	$-10	05-09 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$9	27	0	+27	Down	$-9	05-09 16:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	2	$8	6	6	+0	Up	+$3	05-09 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	2	$6	13	13	+0	Up	$-5	05-09 17:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$6	11	0	+11	Down	$-6	05-09 17:01
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-09 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-04 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	05-16 17:19
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?	1	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	04-28 01:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 18:03:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x326c67…
05-19 23:07:00	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	FaZe	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x87163a…
05-19 23:04:56	Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS World Championship Group C	Twisted Minds	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xc3fefb…
05-19 23:03:50	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	Team Liquid	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xc9f224…
05-19 00:49:48	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	Team Falcons	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xffb06e…
05-19 00:49:20	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Nemiga	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x05a4fc…
05-19 00:41:08	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x2b6035…
05-19 00:38:01	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x48492b…
05-19 00:30:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xea557d…
05-19 00:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xd37618…
05-19 00:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x15b86b…
05-19 00:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xe2da5c…
05-19 00:06:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xeee4b8…
05-19 00:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x45c7f0…
05-19 00:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x0f65e3…
05-18 23:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x006719…
05-18 23:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xb390d1…
05-18 23:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x0d8aae…
05-18 23:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7ba476…
05-16 17:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x7ba2c4…
05-16 16:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xe0ee9a…
05-16 16:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x022f63…
05-10 19:09:14	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x414ceb…
05-09 17:48:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 9?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x0661fa…
05-09 17:48:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xfba962…
05-09 17:48:06	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x16f30b…
05-09 17:48:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xa73b7d…
05-09 17:47:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9?	No	SELL	11	84¢	$9	0x0a2694…
05-09 17:45:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9f93c7…
05-09 17:44:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x0b62d2…
05-09 17:44:45	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x116188…
05-09 17:44:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x326016…
05-09 17:44:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8461e6…
05-09 17:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	29	12¢	$4	0x8b2793…
05-09 17:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0xa8c907…
05-09 17:14:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x7b3897…
05-09 17:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xa4f3a0…
05-09 17:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x0983e8…
05-09 17:01:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x8a54cd…
05-09 17:01:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x0fabd3…
05-09 17:01:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf860d4…
05-09 17:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xe42e8a…
05-09 17:01:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x809578…
05-09 17:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xa08530…
05-09 17:00:57	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x880b57…
05-09 17:00:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa50a4a…
05-09 17:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0xd4c75a…
05-09 17:00:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x2f05e6…
05-09 16:59:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	128	8¢	$10	0x145095…
05-09 16:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x6fd91c…
05-09 16:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xff5235…
05-09 16:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x7f86e9…
05-09 16:58:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x29f4a0…
05-09 16:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0x8011dc…
05-04 12:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa0c9cf…
05-04 12:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd7eae0…
05-04 12:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3044e1…
05-04 11:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x4c5c39…
04-28 07:08:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe4c1fd…
04-28 01:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 28?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc29007…
04-28 01:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x064697…
04-27 18:01:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	No	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x45c37a…
04-27 13:25:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 28?	No	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x2880c4…
04-27 13:23:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0xbe522b…
04-27 13:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	No	BUY	37	56¢	$21	0x39f54d…