Dark-Shaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

18.1%

Resolved

Trades

165

lifetime

Volume

$736

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 08-15 18:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

37% — —

Sports

34% 0% $-13

Politics

29% 100% +$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	22	$100	264	290	-25	open	—	08-07 20:31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	17	$81	124	170	-45	open	—	07-02 19:22
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	6	$68	250	250	+0	open	—	04-14 15:04
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	9	$53	68	53	+14	open	—	04-26 19:00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$53	150	150	+0	open	—	04-12 19:54
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	17	$42	244	141	+103	No	$-10	04-25 09:04
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	5	$40	97	86	+11	open	—	08-15 18:32
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	7	$39	78	110	-32	open	—	08-07 20:31
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	9	$34	343	343	+0	open	—	08-14 22:21
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	12	$30	70	44	+27	open	—	06-21 17:40
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$26	29	29	+0	open	—	04-18 13:35
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$26	41	33	+8	No	$-3	04-25 10:41
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	2	$20	39	0	+39	open	—	07-23 07:41
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	15	$17	120	120	+0	open	—	04-24 06:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$17	50	50	+0	open	—	04-12 19:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$15	56	0	+56	Yes	+$41	04-25 10:22
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	2	$13	26	0	+26	open	—	07-23 07:41
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	1	$9	14	0	+14	open	—	08-15 08:23
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$9	19	0	+19	open	—	07-22 07:45
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$8	50	0	+50	open	—	03-29 11:57
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	08-15 08:23
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	4	$7	10	5	+5	open	—	06-20 12:55
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$7	77	77	+0	open	—	04-24 06:18
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$4	16	16	+0	open	—	04-24 06:18
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$4	39	39	+0	open	—	04-24 06:18
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?	1	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	04-25 11:33
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	04-25 10:41
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$2	24	0	+24	open	—	04-25 10:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 18:32:10	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	14¢	$10	0x87f771…
08-15 18:30:25	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x70d2a1…
08-15 11:49:45	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x9e26d2…
08-15 08:23:01	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x03d089…
08-15 08:23:00	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x4db847…
08-14 22:21:00	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x2756fd…
08-13 14:08:09	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x4c2792…
08-13 13:23:51	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0x0efee5…
08-13 06:05:31	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x5097c0…
08-13 06:05:31	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x1478f8…
08-13 05:34:30	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	301	4¢	$12	0xe048e9…
08-08 08:25:04	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0xa5d656…
08-07 20:31:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x275a58…
08-07 20:31:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$10	0x920856…
08-01 09:10:23	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x6ddfd7…
07-31 19:42:17	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	7¢	$9	0xb5e655…
07-31 19:40:47	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xe310be…
07-31 19:40:47	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x83611b…
07-23 07:41:21	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa6c797…
07-23 07:41:13	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	17	55¢	$10	0x6e00df…
07-22 21:43:52	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x29ffa0…
07-22 07:45:55	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2dbed0…
07-22 07:45:51	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	19	50¢	$9	0xb62ce7…
07-21 19:43:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xfdeecc…
07-21 19:43:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0xbde551…
07-02 19:22:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0x8d1649…
06-21 17:40:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xf530d5…
06-21 17:40:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xe66ded…
06-21 17:40:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x054d3a…
06-21 17:40:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xb76b25…
06-21 17:38:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa970af…
06-20 12:55:46	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x3f86c3…
06-20 12:55:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x6e0cae…
06-20 12:55:37	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x430744…
06-19 05:32:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0xd7a501…
06-19 05:17:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3e8efb…
06-18 21:21:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$3	0xb3a617…
06-18 21:19:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xab1e7f…
06-18 18:15:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	12¢	$7	0x7acb91…
06-17 21:53:20	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x39468c…
06-17 07:44:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x216d36…
06-17 05:34:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$7	0xe2e136…
06-07 12:44:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x09d9f1…
06-06 19:16:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xb6c4b9…
06-06 19:16:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x27e2aa…
06-06 19:16:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xd51540…
06-06 19:16:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x6b84fc…
06-06 19:13:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	152	27¢	$41	0x6f0053…
06-06 19:08:49	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xce7eda…
06-06 19:08:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x2780c6…
06-06 19:08:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xc0bbe7…
06-06 19:08:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x5308c9…
06-06 19:06:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	134	15¢	$20	0x2df6b3…
06-06 18:57:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xbdb33b…
06-06 18:57:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x06644a…
06-06 18:54:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xb15655…
06-06 18:54:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x928150…
06-06 18:52:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x7b8dbb…
06-06 18:43:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xb02d2b…
06-06 18:43:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x1eea07…
06-06 18:28:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x961105…
06-06 18:28:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x8063fd…
06-06 18:28:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xd8f56d…
06-06 18:17:52	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xa26ee9…
06-06 18:17:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x0a716f…
06-06 18:16:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	82	15¢	$12	0x5e4bb7…
06-06 13:47:22	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x1c24d5…
06-06 13:47:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x51b76f…
06-06 13:42:40	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x7f9708…
06-06 13:35:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xe5ad77…
06-06 13:35:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xc0a6ca…
06-06 13:35:31	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x55f749…
06-05 20:29:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x7d4543…
06-05 20:29:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x8d034c…
06-05 05:51:16	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xa25046…
06-04 19:48:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x5062c1…
06-04 19:48:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x694412…
06-04 19:48:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x4881eb…
06-04 17:47:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0xceee27…
06-04 17:46:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x018fdf…
06-04 17:46:45	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x786561…
06-04 17:46:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x21447b…
06-04 07:40:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x0e6ff9…
04-26 19:00:32	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x0f420f…
04-25 11:33:28	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xa12dc2…
04-25 10:41:22	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xcf879c…
04-25 10:41:20	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xdbfc41…
04-25 10:41:20	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x503e9c…
04-25 10:35:36	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x979a2b…
04-25 10:30:36	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x95e64c…
04-25 10:22:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x508684…
04-25 10:18:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x7addb7…
04-25 10:16:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x9e9063…
04-25 10:09:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0x4dfc64…
04-25 09:04:16	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x17b7b2…
04-25 09:01:44	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x49dbbc…
04-25 08:59:12	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x83fce1…
04-25 08:56:44	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xb373df…
04-25 08:52:54	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x296403…
04-25 08:50:42	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xe4a5aa…