Glittering-Octave — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$96

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

3,953 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$701

$1.32M lifetime

Avg / trade

$334

Open exposure

$5.86K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-06 11:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Politics

87% 53% -$8,574

Other

13% 51% -$2,822

Sports

0% 50% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 1250 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	+2,730	$2,451	98¢	$2.7K	+$212	11-03 04:09
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	+2,141	$1,990	95¢	$2.0K	+$53	10-01 14:20
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+948	$675	58¢	$554	-$120	10-28 22:27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+532	$509	95¢	$507	-$2	11-06 06:56
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?	No	+58	$50	86¢	$50	+$0	11-06 06:47
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+150	$37	28¢	$41	+$5	11-06 11:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	+0	$51	78¢	$0	-$51	10-28 22:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	18	$40.4K	20,420	21,920	-1,500	No	+$152	01-30 16:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	15	$37.8K	20,056	19,877	+179	No	+$333	06-07 16:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	9	$29.0K	17,391	17,391	+0	Yes	-$7	04-22 13:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$28.5K	15,142	15,142	+0	No	+$658	05-31 03:51
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	17	$28.1K	14,440	14,440	+0	Yes	+$210	08-25 21:19
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	57	$28.1K	13,398	16,232	-2,835	No	+$176	01-22 12:36
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	24	$27.2K	14,365	14,365	+0	No	+$952	02-02 02:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	112	$26.4K	19,194	19,194	+0	Yes	-$352	04-07 20:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	28	$26.3K	13,708	13,708	+0	No	+$197	06-04 03:54
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1,257	$26.1K	13,315	13,315	+0	No	+$507	08-21 06:46
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	22	$25.8K	16,829	16,829	+0	No	-$1,312	02-20 20:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	36	$25.3K	14,549	13,287	+1,262	No	+$841	06-07 12:49
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	41	$24.3K	13,695	13,556	+139	No	+$1,955	02-11 11:58
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	22	$24.0K	17,278	17,278	+0	No	-$8,575	08-30 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	27	$23.6K	18,631	18,631	+0	Yes	+$6,497	04-08 19:48
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	56	$22.5K	12,229	12,229	+0	No	+$1,080	08-22 01:41
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	9	$21.9K	11,678	10,636	+1,041	No	+$426	01-30 04:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	14	$20.9K	11,364	11,364	+0	No	+$1,380	05-16 00:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	28	$19.6K	18,028	9,667	+8,361	No	+$1,333	05-30 18:48
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	5	$19.6K	10,232	10,232	+0	No	+$883	01-27 00:34
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	38	$19.0K	9,961	11,018	-1,058	No	+$882	02-20 13:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	11	$18.8K	16,936	8,555	+8,381	No	-$48	09-30 14:51
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$18.3K	12,434	12,434	+0	No	-$186	04-23 18:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	15	$17.5K	10,155	10,155	+0	Yes	-$575	06-12 10:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	48	$17.1K	15,165	15,165	+0	Yes	-$5,437	06-14 21:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	30	$15.9K	15,262	15,262	+0	Yes	-$1,074	02-18 20:09
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	10	$15.8K	16,794	0	+16,794	Yes	+$1,043	08-11 06:29
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	19	$15.7K	9,079	9,079	+0	No	-$8	06-14 19:42
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	9	$15.6K	7,850	7,850	+0	No	+$118	01-19 03:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	64	$15.4K	8,968	8,968	+0	No	+$29	08-28 12:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 11:53:34	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	235	27¢	$63	0xe5f18e…
11-06 06:56:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xec0a25…
11-06 06:56:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	201	96¢	$193	0x257e9c…
11-06 06:53:55	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x25422b…
11-06 06:47:45	Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xc263a0…
11-05 13:48:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	302	96¢	$290	0x2c3c16…
11-04 18:03:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x67647b…
11-04 17:42:24	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	241	91¢	$220	0x226191…
11-04 16:13:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x71e0ad…
11-04 16:13:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0x599607…
11-04 02:40:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc07c0b…
11-04 02:39:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x134135…
11-03 04:09:12	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	196	93¢	$182	0x4bca5b…
11-03 03:17:04	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	231	99¢	$230	0x01e4bf…
11-03 03:16:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	SELL	135	92¢	$124	0x2ebe82…
11-03 03:15:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	SELL	120	88¢	$106	0xbdc416…
11-03 02:01:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x679b3c…
11-03 02:00:16	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	510	23¢	$119	0x532975…
11-03 01:50:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	135	99¢	$133	0x80069e…
11-03 01:30:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	859	2¢	$18	0xe32914…
11-03 01:30:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	799	3¢	$24	0xb5ffe4…
11-03 01:29:36	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	3,249	3¢	$91	0xcd4e86…
11-01 11:33:58	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	5,401	100¢	$5,395	0x8604c1…
10-31 23:29:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,795	100¢	$1,786	0xbac13b…
10-31 22:58:42	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	126	89¢	$113	0xd51247…
10-31 18:43:09	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	1,743	90¢	$1,569	0x0189a5…
10-31 18:42:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x49376a…
10-29 20:07:30	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	633	93¢	$589	0x3e1924…
10-29 19:57:34	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	700	84¢	$589	0x3f4131…
10-29 00:07:37	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6eb96c…
10-28 23:08:31	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xa795f2…
10-28 22:50:07	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	275	99¢	$272	0xde78a2…
10-28 22:49:08	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x0eae48…
10-28 22:39:23	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	187	99¢	$185	0xaae7a7…
10-28 22:27:44	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	108	91¢	$98	0x794b80…
10-28 22:27:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	477	65¢	$310	0xdafd25…
10-28 22:27:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x1c27d5…
10-28 22:16:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	73¢	$8	0x4054bc…
10-28 22:14:49	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	29¢	$84	0xc5e667…
10-28 22:14:13	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x8e1c5a…
10-28 22:09:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0xc19d0e…
10-28 22:08:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	796	73¢	$581	0x4df38e…
10-28 22:08:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0xcf170a…
10-28 22:08:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xd2ea81…
10-28 22:07:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x0fbafc…
10-28 22:05:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	103	73¢	$75	0x8ddc90…
10-28 21:49:34	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	30¢	$38	0x52c7f8…
10-28 21:46:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x9d6d0a…
10-28 21:44:29	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	SELL	70	95¢	$67	0xacf080…
10-28 21:28:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	945	97¢	$917	0x8f6516…
10-28 18:06:55	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	763	92¢	$702	0x7ecfb1…
10-28 05:51:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	92	95¢	$87	0x9b1f59…
10-28 05:32:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	647	95¢	$615	0xd6bb8f…
10-28 00:53:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xede3f4…
10-28 00:37:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	216	55¢	$119	0x6eaa14…
10-28 00:35:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	823	79¢	$647	0x2f05ff…
10-28 00:31:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	222	76¢	$169	0x54837c…
10-28 00:30:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xf8c48d…
10-28 00:27:54	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfc46d3…
10-28 00:26:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0x320dd1…
10-28 00:13:30	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	27¢	$15	0xbafe4d…
10-24 19:28:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	739	82¢	$605	0x7807dc…
10-24 19:28:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x5558ca…
10-24 19:27:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	141	92¢	$130	0xe84c1d…
10-24 19:24:18	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	161	96¢	$155	0x65442a…
10-24 19:22:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	285	51¢	$145	0xb270d4…
10-24 19:22:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	196	92¢	$180	0xfb5554…
10-24 19:14:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x7c2da6…
10-24 19:04:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	116	76¢	$88	0xfcc01b…
10-24 19:03:21	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	568	46¢	$260	0x1b3d8d…
10-24 18:58:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	230	63¢	$145	0xa56884…
10-24 18:40:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0xc5f330…
10-24 18:38:45	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	183	2¢	$4	0x551832…
10-23 17:48:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xca05da…
10-23 06:01:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	140	92¢	$128	0x615acc…
10-23 05:10:20	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	138	93¢	$128	0x713b3c…
10-23 04:56:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	317	81¢	$257	0x0c9fe1…
10-22 01:45:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x82b345…
10-22 01:44:24	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	67	75¢	$50	0x45ecb2…
10-22 01:42:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xacaac0…
10-22 01:42:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	67	75¢	$50	0x26c75c…
10-19 11:30:18	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	160	91¢	$146	0x322cb7…
10-19 11:28:50	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	150	97¢	$145	0xc8a8e9…
10-18 01:46:42	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	568	47¢	$268	0x34aec9…
10-18 01:44:54	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	87¢	$260	0xb5c09b…
10-18 01:41:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xc4de93…
10-16 14:28:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	129	80¢	$104	0x19cee2…
10-16 14:24:37	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2ffee4…
10-16 14:24:18	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8069bd…
10-16 14:24:07	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x166623…
10-16 14:23:54	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8e9645…
10-16 14:23:39	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	165	89¢	$147	0xed5200…
10-16 14:13:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	336	81¢	$272	0x1d94c9…
10-16 02:22:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	161	79¢	$127	0x8e4f33…
10-16 02:21:15	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	148	86¢	$128	0xbf78d2…
10-16 02:17:43	Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	317	81¢	$256	0xbf34b8…
10-03 20:15:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x9a6da5…
10-03 13:09:57	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	384	13¢	$50	0xd6af69…
10-03 12:57:09	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	385	13¢	$50	0x2265c6…
10-03 04:01:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x238c74…