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Realized P&L (30d)
-$1.19K
Unrealized P&L
+$413
Hit rate
36.8%
Resolved (30d)
189
Trades (30d)
4,155
4,150 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$61.1K
$61.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$6.67K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-19
last 11-08 06:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 16 days
Categories
Other
72% 31% -$1,034
Politics
16% 42% -$17
Tech
8% 41% -$97
Sports
3% 0% -$23
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$18
Crypto
1% 75% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
21 active days in 12wk • peak 557 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11? Yes +1,195 $760 65¢ $777 +$17 11-07 22:10
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +688 $543 80¢ $554 +$11 11-07 19:54
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026? Yes +558 $403 72¢ $402 -$1 11-07 21:07
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? No +493 $251 57¢ $280 +$28 11-05 01:29
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10? No +353 $267 76¢ $268 +$1 11-08 08:06
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11? No +737 $294 35¢ $258 -$36 11-07 22:00
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12? Yes +304 $227 84¢ $256 +$29 11-07 19:24
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +295 $198 72¢ $214 +$16 11-07 20:48
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? Yes +493 $232 43¢ $213 -$19 11-05 18:23
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? No +230 $168 88¢ $202 +$35 10-30 13:45
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting? Yes +300 $228 66¢ $196 -$32 11-02 22:16
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +253 $174 76¢ $194 +$20 11-02 21:18
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the March interest rate announcement? No +330 $161 56¢ $186 +$26 11-06 22:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +265 $134 70¢ $184 +$51 10-22 23:00
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +219 $98 80¢ $175 +$77 11-03 22:23
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government? No +233 $166 74¢ $172 +$6 10-30 17:56
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +212 $163 81¢ $172 +$8 10-29 05:26
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? No +195 $115 88¢ $172 +$56 10-24 14:04
Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government? No +212 $144 80¢ $170 +$25 10-29 04:03
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +190 $151 86¢ $163 +$11 11-04 17:33
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +183 $97 88¢ $160 +$63 11-03 19:06
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +179 $152 87¢ $156 +$4 11-04 03:38
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +159 $116 98¢ $155 +$39 10-24 08:44
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026? No +158 $133 97¢ $154 +$21 10-29 13:27
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? No +781 $159 20¢ $152 -$6 11-07 23:14
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +259 $148 58¢ $150 +$3 11-03 23:25
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings? No +192 $136 72¢ $137 +$1 11-08 07:11
Will Together be in the next Israeli government? Yes +183 $86 74¢ $135 +$49 10-30 03:46
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? No +300 $123 44¢ $130 +$8 11-05 20:33
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12? No +804 $228 16¢ $129 -$99 11-07 21:00