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Realized P&L (90d)
-$1.17K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.55K
Hit rate
38.4%
Resolved (90d)
210
Trades (90d)
4,195
4,195 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$60.4K
$60.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$7.61K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-19
last 11-10 05:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
73% 32% -$989
Politics
15% 44% -$15
Tech
8% 37% -$118
Sports
3% 0% -$23
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$18
Crypto
1% 75% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
23 active days in 12wk • peak 557 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11? Yes +1,495 $995 91¢ $1.4K +$365 11-08 20:35
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +848 $674 97¢ $821 +$147 11-09 15:02
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? Yes +493 $232 91¢ $446 +$214 11-05 18:23
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10? No +454 $344 95¢ $430 +$86 11-08 10:19
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12? Yes +324 $243 96¢ $312 +$69 11-08 09:44
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? No +426 $207 59¢ $251 +$44 10-25 18:41
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +295 $198 77¢ $227 +$29 11-07 20:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +265 $134 82¢ $219 +$85 10-22 23:00
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? No +230 $168 90¢ $206 +$38 10-30 13:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +250 $171 80¢ $199 +$27 11-09 15:38
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting? Yes +300 $228 65¢ $195 -$33 11-02 22:16
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? Yes +426 $253 41¢ $175 -$79 10-23 20:04
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? No +195 $115 90¢ $175 +$59 10-24 14:04
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government? No +233 $166 74¢ $173 +$7 10-30 17:56
Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government? No +222 $152 77¢ $171 +$18 11-08 08:39
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +183 $97 92¢ $167 +$71 11-03 19:06
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +219 $98 76¢ $165 +$67 11-03 22:23
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +190 $151 86¢ $165 +$13 11-04 17:33
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +259 $148 60¢ $157 +$9 11-03 23:25
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No +159 $116 98¢ $156 +$40 10-24 08:44
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026? No +158 $133 97¢ $153 +$21 10-29 13:27
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +179 $152 85¢ $152 +$1 11-04 03:38
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the March interest rate announcement? No +330 $161 46¢ $150 -$11 11-06 22:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? No +165 $63 88¢ $144 +$81 11-03 09:05
Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? Yes +167 $72 86¢ $144 +$72 11-07 12:32
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +156 $103 92¢ $144 +$41 10-28 13:49
Will Together be in the next Israeli government? Yes +183 $86 78¢ $143 +$57 10-30 03:46
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +212 $163 66¢ $141 -$22 10-29 05:26
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate at the March meeting? Yes +221 $110 62¢ $136 +$26 11-05 08:08
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? No +300 $123 42¢ $128 +$4 11-05 20:33