Dependent-Cravat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$997

Unrealized P&L

-$210

Hit rate

91.9%

Resolved

215

Trades

448

lifetime

Volume

$73.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$163

Open exposure

$534

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-20 19:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Other

94% 68% -$1,040

Politics

5% 80% -$2

Crypto

1% 89% +$1

Sports

0% 77% +$40

Tech

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	-500	-$456	97¢	$-484	-$28	05-07 14:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+49	$226	96¢	$47	-$179	10-17 18:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	+6	$5	37¢	$2	-$3	08-17 12:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	15	$24.2K	12,207	12,207	+0	No	+$25	09-22 17:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	22	$19.3K	10,590	10,541	+49	open	—	10-17 18:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	12	$10.2K	5,136	5,136	+0	No	+$8	06-19 18:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	18	$6.1K	3,055	3,054	+0	No	+$16	05-30 11:45
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	66	$3.0K	1,572	1,572	-0	open	—	09-04 07:24
us bank failure by january 31	7	$2.5K	1,262	1,262	+0	Yes	+$15	01-29 22:51
us bank failure by march 31 294	5	$1.3K	1,459	274	+1,185	Yes	-$884	01-29 22:52
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	2	$1.2K	601	601	+0	No	-$1	01-01 20:13
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	4	$1.2K	590	590	+0	No	-$4	01-06 20:20
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	2	$800	419	419	+0	No	+$0	01-17 03:55
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	9	$601	334	334	+0	No	+$1	02-09 22:46
msft up or down on january 20 2026	2	$534	267	267	+0	Down	+$0	01-20 22:20
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$456	0	500	-500	open	—	05-07 14:53
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$202	106	106	+0	No	+$0	03-12 19:25
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$134	336	0	+336	Spirit	-$134	05-11 14:51
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	3	$82	63	63	+0	BNK FEARX	+$44	05-04 13:02
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$60	72	0	+72	Yes	-$60	05-07 14:57
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on May 13?	2	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	05-12 16:07
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$41	27	27	+0	Yes	+$1	03-18 22:14
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	02-25 19:28
highest temperature in seoul on april 24 2026 21corhigher	5	$37	23	23	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 14:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$32	25	25	+0	open	—	08-23 07:52
will the super bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds 745	4	$32	28	28	+0	Yes	+$1	02-08 22:23
lol sr tl2 2026 04 11	2	$30	21	10	+11	Team Liquid	+$1	04-11 21:33
lal rea lev 2026 01 17 rea	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	$0	01-16 23:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$21	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	05-28 21:12
highest temperature in denver on april 21 2026 56forhigher	2	$21	21	0	+21	Yes	+$0	04-20 13:08
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	02-08 08:00
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 21:13
another us strike on venezuela on january 12	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-14 09:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 19:39:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xc42be2…
10-17 18:54:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xd8bf84…
09-26 08:30:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x62115a…
09-26 08:30:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,435	96¢	$2,350	0xe3e56e…
09-22 17:55:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	649	100¢	$649	0x9e561b…
09-22 17:53:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1,758	100¢	$1,756	0xe27d09…
09-20 08:05:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2,407	100¢	$2,400	0x555626…
09-15 07:49:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2,400	100¢	$2,388	0x807944…
09-07 08:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x32384c…
09-04 07:24:06	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xb91bcf…
09-03 08:41:33	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x97285f…
09-02 08:04:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2,400	99¢	$2,383	0x6f835c…
09-02 00:17:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	978	99¢	$970	0x9579b7…
09-01 22:42:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	963	99¢	$956	0x0761a2…
09-01 20:08:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	483	99¢	$479	0x16fdd6…
08-31 15:47:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2,424	99¢	$2,400	0x6db791…
08-28 17:34:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	65	99¢	$64	0xdc0799…
08-28 17:34:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x234dc3…
08-28 16:25:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2,462	99¢	$2,433	0xb7b26b…
08-27 07:28:10	Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0xe3bb91…
08-25 11:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x3780cd…
08-25 11:12:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x868f33…
08-25 11:11:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2,532	99¢	$2,500	0xff4e9b…
08-24 23:26:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2,444	99¢	$2,410	0x1e385f…
08-24 08:53:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe76f2b…
08-23 07:52:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0x939c40…
08-23 07:49:49	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x9f8f12…
08-20 17:21:52	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe1ca56…
08-20 17:21:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x456c10…
08-20 17:20:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2,444	98¢	$2,400	0x24408a…
08-18 04:45:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,961	96¢	$1,883	0x970b46…
08-18 01:34:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xc548cb…
08-18 01:34:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x30ed1d…
08-18 01:04:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x4fad7a…
08-17 21:33:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	208	96¢	$200	0x480d91…
08-17 20:29:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x63a291…
08-17 20:24:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdd4744…
08-17 20:09:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x02b601…
08-17 17:49:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0xf916f9…
08-17 17:48:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x6f399f…
08-17 17:29:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0x0d4c16…
08-17 12:32:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xefedf6…
08-17 12:20:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x847038…
08-17 12:20:25	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0xa2fc11…
08-17 10:06:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x5653bb…
08-17 09:06:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$40	0x85de05…
08-11 16:01:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc0f5f3…
08-10 07:51:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x654ee6…
08-10 07:22:07	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x9a1406…
07-31 07:43:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8ecaf2…
07-22 08:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x6c7fe8…
07-17 07:42:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 18?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc5cc58…
07-14 13:39:56	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x2da768…
07-08 21:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb5a7e0…
07-05 20:08:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,526	95¢	$2,400	0x979f3b…
07-05 11:26:37	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xff315c…
07-05 11:25:07	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x3455c2…
07-05 11:24:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xa137d0…
07-05 11:22:10	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x7dd8f0…
07-05 11:21:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xd683c5…
07-05 11:21:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x0f6d73…
07-05 11:21:34	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x993686…
07-05 11:21:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x587135…
07-05 11:20:37	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xad64b3…
07-05 11:20:19	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc2359f…
07-05 11:16:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3fa6b1…
07-05 11:16:28	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3007f9…
07-05 11:14:52	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xc1b0a0…
07-05 11:14:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x45a3b0…
07-05 11:13:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xa8b6f7…
07-05 11:11:55	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x953db1…
07-05 11:10:58	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x35de0f…
07-05 11:08:49	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$50	0x71981d…
07-05 11:06:41	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x286c3a…
07-05 11:04:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x9949d5…
07-05 11:02:37	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x6b20ff…
07-05 11:01:28	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x7481cf…
07-05 10:53:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x491053…
07-05 10:53:22	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x8e2252…
07-05 10:52:07	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xbcf01d…
07-05 10:51:11	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0xa0d8b7…
07-05 10:50:16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x79de02…
07-05 10:50:11	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf853a4…
07-05 10:42:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe080ac…
07-05 10:38:40	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x2afad9…
07-05 10:38:16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf0884c…
07-05 10:36:58	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xa6d295…
07-05 10:35:25	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xcd825f…
07-05 10:34:25	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x7a04a3…
07-05 10:33:23	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdc291a…
07-05 10:32:19	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x47f294…
07-05 10:30:41	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xff2b75…
07-05 10:30:29	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x333a3a…
07-05 10:30:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x6913a5…
07-05 10:28:19	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd7b35e…
07-05 10:26:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0xddfb69…
07-05 10:25:55	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x27f6c8…
07-05 10:25:11	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x7d1b53…
07-05 10:21:52	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd497cb…
07-05 10:18:28	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xb5d805…