Pointed-Forehead — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$50

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$33

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 11-03 02:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

50% 67% +$68

Politics

29% 64% -$13

Tech

19% 40% -$9

Sports

2% 100% +$4

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+50	$8	64¢	$32	+$24	10-29 21:13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	+25	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	11-03 02:43
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+250	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	06-15 18:28
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+30	$4	1¢	$0	-$4	07-30 21:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	5	$119	68	68	+0	No	+$7	04-22 14:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	5	$119	66	66	+0	No	+$11	04-22 09:59
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	8	$61	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$12	05-21 13:52
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	3	$42	0	300	-300	No	+$42	04-30 14:43
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$42	15	30	-15	No	+$3	06-19 06:07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$38	25	25	+0	Yes	-$6	05-06 09:05
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	2	$38	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	06-22 08:15
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	4	$35	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$5	05-16 14:21
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$33	19	19	+0	Yes	+$5	05-30 12:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$32	20	20	+0	No	+$4	04-24 07:48
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	1	$32	40	0	+40	Yes	+$8	04-30 11:19
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	3	$29	18	18	+0	Yes	+$6	05-30 17:29
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	2	$27	15	15	+0	No	+$3	06-27 09:01
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$26	25	25	+0	Yes	+$2	05-16 01:08
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	3	$24	20	20	+0	Yes	+$10	05-22 15:30
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$24	30	10	+20	Yes	+$4	06-21 12:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$23	163	163	+0	No	+$3	04-24 11:17
Discord IPO before 2027?	3	$21	19	19	+0	open	—	07-31 02:09
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	3	$21	25	0	+25	Yes	+$4	05-18 21:40
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	3	$20	20	20	+0	No	+$10	07-27 17:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$20	25	0	+25	Yes	+$5	05-15 16:57
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$19	15	15	+0	Yes	+$7	06-19 17:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	07-11 15:32
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$17	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	04-27 13:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	1	$16	20	0	+20	No	-$16	06-13 00:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$16	20	0	+20	No	+$4	04-27 16:42
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$16	50	25	+25	open	—	11-03 02:43
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	10	$16	100	60	+40	No	+$12	06-25 12:34
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	2	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	06-16 20:42
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	4	$15	22	6	+16	Yes	-$10	06-08 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 02:43:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0xaca1b2…
10-29 21:13:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xdf44d8…
09-14 17:00:46	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x4ba92c…
07-31 02:09:02	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x351668…
07-30 21:37:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x83409a…
07-30 21:37:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x53c340…
07-27 17:33:43	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xa6f795…
07-21 08:53:25	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x9aaa2b…
07-21 08:51:31	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x0d3c09…
07-17 12:56:19	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0xc18c1f…
07-11 15:32:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xf672ce…
07-01 22:29:46	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xb00e79…
06-27 09:01:17	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4580cd…
06-26 17:17:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x121335…
06-26 11:27:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x024f1e…
06-25 12:34:58	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x6a5975…
06-25 12:33:56	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xbcc3ca…
06-25 12:32:05	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x3d611a…
06-25 11:52:05	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xaaa8f0…
06-25 11:50:05	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$1	0x8115dc…
06-25 10:53:11	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xfe0fd1…
06-25 10:37:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xf29ead…
06-25 07:14:47	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x9dc489…
06-25 07:14:40	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x9bcb67…
06-25 07:14:32	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0x817eed…
06-23 16:24:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7c1e69…
06-22 08:15:53	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf3828d…
06-22 04:22:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x32fa37…
06-21 12:31:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa423ab…
06-19 17:01:59	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x4e56d3…
06-19 15:33:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xa35be7…
06-19 13:14:14	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x590dee…
06-19 13:06:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x9439ed…
06-19 06:07:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x54eddf…
06-17 14:22:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x1d1609…
06-16 23:13:41	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x9e02fc…
06-16 20:42:02	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x7eb5b8…
06-16 14:23:55	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	65	9¢	$6	0x148b73…
06-16 05:42:09	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xed4960…
06-15 18:28:42	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	213	1¢	$2	0xc14d64…
06-15 17:54:25	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0xba07d5…
06-15 17:26:48	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc78e71…
06-15 17:04:36	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x222f9d…
06-15 16:05:10	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0xf3da09…
06-15 15:33:46	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xab12d4…
06-15 13:36:57	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdc5744…
06-14 07:58:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xdb13b2…
06-14 07:58:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa91ed5…
06-14 07:58:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x0056b9…
06-14 07:58:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xa59f19…
06-13 00:05:10	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1c8177…
06-12 14:31:07	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x25e0d6…
06-12 13:01:06	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfbd546…
06-12 09:55:58	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0xeca5b6…
06-11 20:07:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x39c8d9…
06-11 19:43:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x2abbf8…
06-11 16:35:55	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xbbbecc…
06-09 16:40:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x0860f7…
06-09 10:27:45	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x66c7d7…
06-09 02:37:42	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x0384c0…
06-09 02:25:52	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x59c1ad…
06-09 02:15:24	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xbe1981…
06-09 02:01:10	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x0ef481…
06-08 23:34:19	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xd39102…
06-08 23:32:55	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x44934b…
06-08 16:58:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x1892e7…
06-08 16:58:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x1892e7…
06-08 16:22:01	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x962c95…
06-08 15:38:45	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xcc92b6…
06-08 15:22:24	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xe51540…
06-05 14:38:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xd233d2…
06-04 15:07:52	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	340	0¢	$1	0x3de11b…
06-04 15:04:25	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x1414a4…
06-03 16:32:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x7da4f9…
06-02 16:54:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xc4657b…
06-01 04:08:52	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xa65dd3…
06-01 04:08:52	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xa05aee…
06-01 04:08:52	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x88938b…
06-01 04:08:52	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x123d4a…
06-01 04:08:52	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x0db0da…
05-31 15:03:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x63e4a1…
05-30 18:00:31	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC?	No	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x49d97c…
05-30 17:43:48	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x0a6ae2…
05-30 17:31:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x17b4b6…
05-30 17:29:25	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xb13dc3…
05-30 16:50:38	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x397637…
05-30 16:44:36	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xbced70…
05-30 16:44:20	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0xfeb8e8…
05-30 16:19:04	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x373dfa…
05-30 16:15:15	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x2418d3…
05-30 16:08:19	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcedb6c…
05-30 12:18:29	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x53d350…
05-30 12:10:06	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x3c5597…
05-29 15:49:41	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x8324b3…
05-29 04:01:28	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x239f57…
05-28 02:10:26	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	1¢	$1	0x433d8f…
05-28 01:25:19	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x8ec149…
05-23 21:35:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x689ccc…
05-22 15:30:20	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x673812…
05-21 20:27:04	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x8e236b…