Talkative-Worm — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$220

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

75.1%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

411 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.88K

$51.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$126

Open exposure

$1.43K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-06 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 146 days

Categories

Other

51% 63% +$339

Politics

34% 76% -$187

Sports

8% 55% +$136

Tech

4% 67% +$74

Crypto

3% 100% +$16

Pop-Culture

2% 33% -$129

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+514	$483	96¢	$495	+$12	11-03 12:36
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 9?	No	+315	$305	98¢	$309	+$4	11-06 16:32
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	+321	$300	94¢	$300	$0	11-05 16:28
Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	No	+111	$84	82¢	$90	+$6	10-30 23:16
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	+76	$51	88¢	$68	+$17	10-29 11:24
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+60	$49	76¢	$46	-$3	10-02 21:06
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	+48	$40	86¢	$41	+$1	10-07 19:52
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	Yes	+36	$25	88¢	$32	+$7	11-06 05:12
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	+25	$14	57¢	$15	+$1	10-30 23:11
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+79	$20	12¢	$10	-$10	10-01 19:58
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+103	$4	9¢	$9	+$5	10-13 16:19
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+47	$9	13¢	$6	-$3	10-07 19:36
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	+38	$22	15¢	$6	-$16	11-03 08:48
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+30	$3	4¢	$1	-$2	08-05 19:20
Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+231	$3	0¢	$1	-$2	08-05 19:19
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+17	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-25 23:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia announce a christmas truce	2	$2.0K	1,052	1,052	+0	No	+$52	01-08 00:32
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	2	$1.9K	1,040	1,040	+0	No	+$110	02-26 10:15
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.9K	979	979	+0	No	+$45	05-15 15:08
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$1.8K	934	934	+0	Yes	+$83	05-12 20:22
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$1.5K	1,489	0	+1,489	Yes	+$12	09-17 14:14
will the government shutdown last 30 days or more 558 354 297 785 675	1	$1.3K	1,328	0	+1,328	No	+$28	02-01 20:55
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.2K	690	690	+0	Yes	+$186	06-21 03:21
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	1	$1.1K	1,170	0	+1,170	No	+$70	01-14 16:22
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	3	$1.0K	1,067	0	+1,067	No	+$66	03-03 17:36
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$1000	1,009	0	+1,009	No	+$9	01-08 00:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	1	$939	948	0	+948	No	+$9	03-05 09:44
president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	1	$921	926	0	+926	No	+$5	06-12 23:35
Will the US strike Mexico next?	1	$904	920	0	+920	No	+$16	01-11 11:15
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	1	$849	857	0	+857	Yes	+$8	06-25 21:33
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	2	$845	988	0	+988	Yes	+$143	06-17 23:59
will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	1	$841	844	0	+844	Yes	+$3	06-15 02:44
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	1	$840	845	0	+845	Yes	+$5	06-15 13:46
will ethereum dip to 1400 in february 2026	1	$840	844	0	+844	No	+$4	02-26 21:11
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?	1	$800	802	0	+802	No	+$2	06-30 01:41
will m0nesy attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260805173412154	2	$794	408	408	+0	No	-$6	08-09 11:26
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	2	$749	801	0	+801	No	+$52	07-25 09:29
will russia join the board of peace	7	$730	405	405	+0	No	+$26	03-25 21:06
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	2	$679	738	0	+738	No	+$59	10-15 18:53
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 13, 2026?	1	$625	655	0	+655	Yes	+$30	10-12 18:22
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?	2	$600	608	0	+608	Yes	+$8	11-04 21:26
will leonardo dicaprio attend the oscars	5	$581	416	201	+215	Yes	+$28	03-12 12:50
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	1	$566	588	0	+588	No	+$22	01-08 22:32
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?	1	$550	559	0	+559	No	+$9	03-19 12:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	1	$513	527	0	+527	No	+$14	08-08 14:34
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	2	$508	543	0	+543	No	+$35	08-09 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 16:32:54	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 9?	No	BUY	315	97¢	$305	0x9bb217…
11-06 05:12:16	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x23dd1d…
11-05 16:28:21	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	BUY	321	94¢	$300	0xde2c45…
11-05 14:42:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x73cf06…
11-04 21:26:13	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0x3f3cb7…
11-04 21:23:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0x99422c…
11-04 12:16:43	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Natus Vincere	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xfc0508…
11-04 12:15:25	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	FURIA	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x7f5515…
11-03 20:18:30	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x067700…
11-03 16:17:30	FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC: FC Barcelona O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xdf64a9…
11-03 16:16:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb8d3a6…
11-03 12:36:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0x2ce255…
11-03 10:35:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	95¢	$83	0x3002c0…
11-03 10:29:51	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x5b38ad…
11-03 10:16:46	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Natus Vincere	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x561358…
11-03 08:56:00	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xce753f…
11-03 08:55:49	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xfbc85c…
11-03 08:53:18	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner	Heroic	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xbde16e…
11-03 08:50:30	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner	Heroic	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x018a4f…
11-03 08:50:09	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner	Heroic	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x42eb41…
11-03 08:49:52	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner	Heroic	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4e0bd5…
11-03 08:49:22	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	Team Falcons	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb49f78…
11-03 08:48:58	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0xfdf791…
10-31 18:48:46	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xf6a014…
10-31 17:38:33	Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x48ac27…
10-30 23:40:42	Jets vs. Panthers: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xbeba40…
10-30 23:37:54	Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb71621…
10-30 23:36:22	Spread: Devils (-1.5)	Golden Knights	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x5c5a6e…
10-30 23:16:49	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	No	BUY	111	76¢	$84	0x321522…
10-30 23:11:37	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0xa75ec9…
10-30 23:09:13	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xad6f4e…
10-30 23:04:42	Jets vs. Panthers	Panthers	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0xd08c5a…
10-30 18:51:57	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8b5953…
10-29 20:40:16	Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner	OG	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x5b24f1…
10-29 19:21:18	Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	GamerLegion	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x81c653…
10-29 11:24:37	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	63	70¢	$44	0x19786b…
10-27 06:06:02	Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0xb0635b…
10-27 00:25:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x7bf5c2…
10-26 19:26:57	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xdac432…
10-26 19:24:51	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	PARIVISION	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x801801…
10-26 16:22:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xfd725f…
10-25 23:09:14	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x71b704…
10-25 12:43:44	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	64	70¢	$45	0x1def5c…
10-24 17:14:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	100¢	$64	0x6bdf7a…
10-24 11:53:47	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	81¢	$58	0x7a4b56…
10-17 19:14:14	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	225	88¢	$198	0xce135b…
10-17 08:12:33	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	155	73¢	$114	0x599b95…
10-17 08:12:02	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	88	97¢	$85	0xf4e01f…
10-16 19:12:19	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	SELL	230	100¢	$230	0xe89c13…
10-16 07:30:16	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	BUY	230	97¢	$224	0xfa6981…
10-15 20:50:08	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x469048…
10-15 19:11:46	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x02d4c6…
10-15 18:53:55	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	516	95¢	$490	0xa5fac1…
10-15 18:48:28	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	93	10¢	$9	0x33c403…
10-15 18:42:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0xa6ec41…
10-15 18:12:07	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get less than 20 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	36	84¢	$30	0xaa8546…
10-15 17:23:41	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get less than 20 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x384008…
10-15 17:19:13	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B	PARIVISION	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf3f4f1…
10-15 17:17:43	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x1713f5…
10-15 15:12:04	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get less than 20 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xddc95b…
10-15 13:13:38	us imports russian diesel by october 31	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x78aa4d…
10-13 16:19:10	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	4¢	$4	0xe6d22d…
10-13 11:44:49	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik	Alexander Zverev	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xcf758d…
10-12 18:22:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	655	95¢	$625	0x9c497c…
10-11 07:44:25	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xd67ce0…
10-11 07:38:33	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	158	49¢	$78	0x7e283c…
10-10 20:31:39	Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0x8691c8…
10-10 20:30:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x8c09c8…
10-10 20:26:43	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?	No	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x60b651…
10-10 20:15:16	Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0x2e340b…
10-10 20:12:57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x5659ae…
10-09 19:13:40	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	88	81¢	$71	0x147bbe…
10-09 06:11:58	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xa840f1…
10-08 20:25:44	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	BUY	68	85¢	$58	0x2cdf0f…
10-07 19:53:28	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x9cc84c…
10-07 19:52:34	Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x8efaee…
10-07 19:36:24	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	47	19¢	$9	0x6a7cdc…
10-07 15:09:23	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	69	71¢	$49	0xdb385a…
10-07 15:01:22	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	64	76¢	$49	0x2f1a33…
10-03 20:36:28	Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Czechia	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x955113…
10-02 21:06:50	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	81¢	$49	0x308ffd…
10-02 21:04:39	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	110	73¢	$80	0x880f19…
10-02 16:55:56	Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x8d216a…
10-02 16:48:39	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0x4923e4…
10-01 19:58:23	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x2d3648…
09-28 21:18:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	64	42¢	$27	0x6d7f1b…
09-28 21:07:05	kanye west performs in russia by october 31	Yes	SELL	561	5¢	$31	0xcfe702…
09-28 11:23:08	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	184	51¢	$94	0xd0b661…
09-25 13:11:18	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 588	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x5927d3…
09-25 13:07:02	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xd1e434…
09-23 15:46:22	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x53d7c5…
09-23 15:42:38	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	222	85¢	$189	0x73eebf…
09-17 14:14:00	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,489	99¢	$1,477	0x8e1460…
09-17 14:11:48	NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	76	97¢	$73	0xa6632f…
09-13 14:12:22	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Alexander Zverev	BUY	54	59¢	$32	0x7f608d…
09-13 10:07:24	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0xe35347…
09-13 10:07:24	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0x76bf76…
09-11 11:37:33	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf41d64…
09-09 17:40:09	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	88	32¢	$28	0x02db0c…
09-09 17:39:10	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	148	32¢	$47	0xcc3b31…