Live-Thinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,391

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-09 17:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

80% 96% +$0

Sports

16% 100% +$0

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 17:17:39	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa30583…
06-09 16:28:54	lol ckz ps1 2026 06 09	Partizan Sangal	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa92ffa…
06-09 12:20:12	itf khayndr aydemir 2026 06 09	Defne Aydemir	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1cb3cb…
06-09 00:21:21	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 spread home 2pt5	CDPJuniorFC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc78d01…
06-08 21:37:01	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x738698…
06-08 12:03:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbbbbfa…
06-07 21:58:16	mlb mil col 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x78b2b0…
06-07 21:09:31	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe7e5c2…
06-07 17:38:58	mlbb ts ver 2026 06 07 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd48237…
06-07 16:59:27	cs2 bb3 m80 2026 06 07	BetBoom Team	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe77b09…
06-07 14:06:34	wta maria miyazak 2026 06 06 set handicap home 1pt5	Miyazaki	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7cab8a…
06-07 13:09:45	sc2 hero cure 2026 06 07	herO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4ce928…
06-06 23:09:46	codmw tex riyf 2026 06 06	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x63dbdc…
06-06 22:08:30	mlb oak hou 2026 06 06 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc33679…
06-06 16:17:28	wta chwalin andreev 2026 06 06 set handicap away 1pt5	Andreeva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x67d1a9…
06-06 14:19:19	lol jdg blg 2026 06 06 game handicap home 1pt5	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf6d892…
06-06 11:32:36	itf jovanov davies 2026 06 06	Allegra Korpanec Davies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e7703…
06-06 11:32:34	itf haavist petruze 2026 06 06	Lucie Petruzelova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x541280…
06-05 18:59:49	bkligend bil val 2026 06 05	Valencia	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaaec10…
06-05 15:49:33	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set handicap away 2pt5	Mensik	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaff14e…
06-05 04:48:10	crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	Mali	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe52233…
06-05 01:53:15	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e8b74…
06-04 04:48:09	crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	Mali	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x117a67…
06-03 16:04:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd91c4e…
06-03 13:43:30	Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Balaji/Demoliner vs Helioevaara/Patten	Helioevaara/Patten	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x72e94c…
06-03 11:31:47	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman	Oman	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa3d1ec…
06-03 00:47:04	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner	QoR	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ed51f…
06-02 22:56:07	Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner	NRG Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x91369b…
06-02 16:00:26	LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winner	NightBirds	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x14b082…
06-02 15:24:37	Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Carlota Martinez Cirez	Mayar Sherif	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2d36e5…
06-01 23:52:42	Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xab7d37…
06-01 14:41:38	will spy reach 750 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3f7ee7…
06-01 07:19:26	Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb714e7…
05-31 21:25:55	Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0db274…
05-31 20:44:55	Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcc4244…
05-31 20:39:40	T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands	Netherlands	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15e707…
05-31 20:11:50	Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5e6295…
05-31 19:09:27	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1e149c…
05-31 18:08:24	Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x289e7f…
05-31 14:19:37	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6a1250…
05-31 02:48:38	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaf7ab3…
05-30 20:09:57	Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 38.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x312019…
05-30 20:08:14	Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1de65a…
05-30 19:09:19	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb9258c…
05-30 17:58:00	Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5)	Kouame	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e8d36…
05-30 14:25:12	PAOK vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x683521…
05-30 13:27:36	Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7609b3…
05-30 12:16:35	UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main Card)	Jake Matthews	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xefa29a…
05-30 10:49:10	UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims)	Jose Henrique	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbff910…
05-30 05:33:11	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0336aa…
05-30 04:48:09	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x259b12…
05-30 02:48:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xafd742…
05-29 22:14:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x227362…
05-29 21:05:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd002dd…
05-29 21:05:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3aad65…
05-29 21:01:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x655ce3…
05-29 19:02:30	Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe45a9d…
05-29 17:27:45	Spread: Gambia (-1.5)	IR Iran	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe2b63b…
05-29 14:43:29	Daniel vs. Erhard: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe40680…
05-29 14:28:43	Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5)	Cirstea	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x86c771…
05-29 13:57:03	Borges vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2230b6…
05-28 20:08:38	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd010f9…
05-28 16:52:19	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xea97b0…
05-28 16:31:10	IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe8c494…
05-28 16:13:30	Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6fa8f4…
05-28 13:56:23	Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Arevalo/Pavic vs Hilderbrand/Paris	Arevalo/Pavic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe3723e…
05-28 12:33:02	Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Cerundolo	Sinner	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe5b05c…
05-28 02:32:33	Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4fc70c…
05-28 01:31:14	Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfd3370…
05-28 00:07:51	Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-1.5)	Club Olimpia	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3d80dc…
05-27 20:01:04	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf10f03…
05-27 19:58:04	Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x81c3c5…
05-26 20:00:18	Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4688d8…
05-26 13:17:59	Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd2b5c6…
05-25 10:12:42	Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa8e1e3…
05-25 08:09:07	T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A	New Zealand A	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe67fc3…
05-25 04:48:17	Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x542c7f…
05-24 23:33:08	Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3bc33c…
05-24 22:57:05	Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x66c45b…
05-24 20:06:17	US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1e6a5e…
05-24 19:24:10	Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci	Quentin Halys	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf612e5…
05-24 18:06:07	Roland Garros WTA: Sofia Kenin vs Peyton Stearns	Peyton Stearns	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x866798…
05-24 17:24:12	Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs	Tomas Machac	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0397e6…
05-24 17:20:25	Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x58bcdc…
05-24 16:02:11	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xab6897…
05-24 15:30:03	AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x895ad8…
05-24 08:02:48	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeebf6e…
05-24 00:32:06	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7bda31…
05-23 17:47:07	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x11caef…
05-23 16:16:07	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb3541…
05-23 12:56:33	Nedic vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x164382…
05-23 01:24:49	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe0b47c…
05-22 21:29:19	Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xed9cc7…
05-22 20:37:17	Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xed4104…
05-21 19:51:20	Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x148e9f…
05-21 14:25:03	Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Joint/Perez vs Eikeri/Gleason	Eikeri/Gleason	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x32b2d7…
05-21 11:20:09	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2a1033…
05-21 04:00:51	Spread: Cusco FC (-1.5)	Independiente Medellín	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x84414e…
05-21 00:09:25	Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2b1f6a…
05-21 00:08:50	Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x84d353…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Messy-Breakfast 0x0f23…2511	740	$7.56K	761	06-09 17:24
Unwilling-Can 0xa3fd…4de4	726	$7.42K	748	06-09 17:24
Political-Sort 0x42b3…07c5	726	$7.40K	753	06-08 21:36
Dishonest-Tsunami 0x6a96…dee2	722	$7.38K	746	06-09 17:17
Ashamed-Browsing 0xec3a…2c11	718	$3.67K	737	06-09 17:38
Tough-Report 0x8f74…c469	716	$36.7K	774	06-07 13:09
Snappy-Embossing 0x8cc4…39b8	714	$3.71K	748	06-09 17:22
Scrawny-Traveler 0xa45f…5d62	714	$3.64K	731	06-09 17:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-05 04:48
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
atp stricke grenier 2026 02 23 set totals 2pt5	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-19 05:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-29 22:14
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-24 16:02
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:10
ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 05:33
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:53
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 04:00
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:14
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:53
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 20:58
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-25 16:26
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 27c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-25 05:20
highest temperature in kuala lumpur on april 17 2026 31c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 06:17
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 8 2026 15corhigher	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-08 11:25
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 25?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-25 07:07
lol gen g2 2026 03 21	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-21 18:17
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Etcheverry	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-19 19:59
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers	1	$10	10	0	+10	Texas Rangers	+$0	05-10 21:19
mlb sf cin 2026 04 16 spread away 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-16 19:13
highest temperature in london on april 2 2026 11c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 01:37
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-16 14:34
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-1.5)	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-28 00:07
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Basquet Club Andorra	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-02 20:55