Live-Thinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,486

lifetime

Volume

$14.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-30 10:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

79% 96% +$0

Sports

17% 100% +$0

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 10:12:46	cs2 don for10 2026 06 30 game2	Donstu Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3488e2…
06-30 04:26:02	mlb sf ari 2026 06 29	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9a5371…
06-30 04:16:11	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5da7e8…
06-30 01:50:32	mlb cws bal 2026 06 29 total 11pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8ebf69…
06-30 01:50:29	mlb pit phi 2026 06 29 spread home 2pt5	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9211d2…
06-30 00:35:05	Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x01e04b…
06-29 21:06:11	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7f5bc4…
06-29 19:22:29	val ucam fks1 2026 06 29 game1	UCAM Esports Club	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5abd4b…
06-29 18:55:23	cs2 pre masq 2026 06 29 map handicap away 1pt5	Prestige	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x274532…
06-29 13:52:43	will nvda reach 196 by june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf69786…
06-29 11:40:46	cricecsbg pak mu 2026 06 29	MU Plovdiv	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x516192…
06-28 21:18:22	mlb hou det 2026 06 28 spread away 1pt5	Houston Astros	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x115a13…
06-28 16:47:28	cs2 berg sinqur 2026 06 28	Esport BERG	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x225fcc…
06-28 12:40:19	kbo kt sam 2026 06 28	Samsung Lions	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb031a5…
06-28 03:59:10	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6d0352…
06-28 03:00:52	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ca6c9…
06-27 23:04:07	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc87d60…
06-27 22:56:41	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 team total home 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe8d547…
06-27 18:05:50	ufc naz mat36 2026 06 27 totals 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x389828…
06-27 16:43:59	ufc abu2 mic1 2026 06 27 totals 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeca73c…
06-27 14:56:02	codmw tex g2m 2026 06 27	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8b021b…
06-27 02:30:01	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8632f6…
06-27 01:32:26	mlb phi nym 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	New York Mets	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8ea58f…
06-26 21:12:04	fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 goals nicolas jackson gte1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x647d02…
06-26 21:02:53	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals michael olise gte2	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf5999e…
06-26 21:02:53	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 assists kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xadaa66…
06-26 16:06:55	codmw riyf tor 2026 06 26	Toronto KOI	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc09b0b…
06-26 11:54:01	wta maria ostapen 2026 06 26	Tatjana Maria	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x057d4b…
06-26 00:55:17	fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x44d88c…
06-25 22:51:34	Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcc626c…
06-25 22:21:10	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 assists florian wirtz gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x274dba…
06-25 02:00:28	alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0d725c…
06-25 01:49:31	alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0bce40…
06-25 00:04:46	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 spread home 1pt5	Morocco	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5fe6e3…
06-25 00:04:46	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 spread away 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x189256…
06-24 23:24:10	cs2 bca og1 2026 06 24 map handicap home 1pt5	Betclic Apogee Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x625293…
06-24 20:59:41	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaeb28c…
06-24 12:34:50	kbo kia kiw 2026 06 24	Kia Tigers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3ff084…
06-23 20:00:56	arcium fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa55a39…
06-23 19:09:11	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Portugal	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f031e…
06-23 18:25:07	wta kinoshi tomova 2026 06 24	Hayu Kinoshita	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x25b24b…
06-23 13:34:14	kbo sam lg 2026 06 23	LG Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x355abd…
06-22 19:05:40	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 spread home 1pt5	Argentina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc4d35d…
06-22 19:05:13	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 btts second half	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa3023f…
06-21 21:11:43	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 second half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8fdeed…
06-21 21:09:55	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 corners team home 6pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x035ebc…
06-21 18:13:08	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 first half team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x53b4b3…
06-21 04:54:50	mlb bal lad 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92b71e…
06-20 22:09:05	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x69c6e4…
06-20 20:06:37	mlb cin nyy 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x768314…
06-20 05:14:16	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf68bda…
06-20 02:42:59	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x76aafc…
06-20 01:49:02	mlb cin nyy 2026 06 19 spread home 1pt5	New York Yankees	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0c80df…
06-19 15:45:32	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game2	Paper Rex	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0182e…
06-18 22:59:29	val yfp nrga 2026 06 18 game1	YFP Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x29b6fc…
06-18 20:58:08	fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 goals granit xhaka gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x756930…
06-18 14:15:59	cs2 jjh pha 2026 06 18 game2	Phantom	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x84731a…
06-17 22:07:08	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x20fa8d…
06-17 19:25:26	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92e23f…
06-17 19:17:59	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcee72b…
06-17 19:04:16	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48b528…
06-17 18:09:11	mlb mia phi 2026 06 17 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdd568b…
06-17 16:10:04	bitcoin above 72k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05f632…
06-17 16:07:44	bitcoin above 70k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb7f37e…
06-17 16:07:16	bitcoin above 68k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x26e088…
06-17 03:00:49	mlb col chc 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7889c9…
06-17 00:09:20	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 3pt5	Iraq	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd05d15…
06-17 00:03:08	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5360c6…
06-16 13:45:52	nik up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0e9909…
06-16 02:29:43	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a87c0…
06-16 01:21:42	mlb det hou 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x69f367…
06-16 00:27:57	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 corners team away 5pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c924e…
06-15 18:10:21	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 btts	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa39215…
06-15 12:41:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 9 15	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe77294…
06-15 01:32:09	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1bb6df…
06-14 20:21:39	cs2 g2 lgc 2026 06 14	G2	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x91ac07…
06-14 19:23:13	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcf2772…
06-14 19:02:25	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 second half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd4476f…
06-14 00:37:55	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 corners total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc2e406…
06-13 09:23:22	cs2 bmb gbl 2026 06 13	BASEMENT BOYS	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41fb38…
06-13 08:59:12	cs2 all saab 2026 06 13 game2	Alliance	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x54a9b6…
06-13 01:55:04	mlb phi mil 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x208cc7…
06-12 23:27:34	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9b25e1…
06-12 20:26:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8b014c…
06-12 20:18:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbfc22a…
06-12 20:17:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3f4a8e…
06-12 13:30:18	bkvtb zen lok 2026 06 12	Lokomotiv Kuban	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc49771…
06-12 10:42:21	lol hle1 t1 2026 06 12 game2 kill over 29pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4e7eb7…
06-11 22:13:42	wti closes above 86 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c21d7…
06-11 21:14:07	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 spread home 1pt5	Mexico	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe752b…
06-11 16:53:30	lol g2nord gal 2026 06 11 game1	G2 NORD	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6ec819…
06-11 16:03:33	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2980e4…
06-11 13:11:28	kbo sam kt 2026 06 11	Samsung Lions	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbf0f9e…
06-10 20:16:54	mlb nyy cle 2026 06 10	New York Yankees	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdb29b…
06-10 20:05:15	mlb bos tb 2026 06 10	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0c2653…
06-09 17:17:39	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa30583…
06-09 16:28:54	lol ckz ps1 2026 06 09	Partizan Sangal	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa92ffa…
06-09 12:20:12	itf khayndr aydemir 2026 06 09	Defne Aydemir	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1cb3cb…
06-09 00:21:21	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 spread home 2pt5	CDPJuniorFC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc78d01…
06-08 21:37:01	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x738698…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-25 02:00
ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 05:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-29 22:14
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:53
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-24 16:02
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:10
atp stricke grenier 2026 02 23 set totals 2pt5	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-19 05:04
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-05 04:48
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 04:00
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:53
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:14
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 20:58
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-25 16:26
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
nba min den 2026 04 18	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-18 23:04
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 8 2026 15corhigher	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-08 11:25
highest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 19c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-23 17:05
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Etcheverry	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-19 19:59
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 27c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-25 05:20
Counter-Strike: Omega vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner	1	$10	10	0	+10	INOX Division	+$0	05-08 12:07
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers	1	$10	10	0	+10	Texas Rangers	+$0	05-10 21:19
wta avanesy garcia 2026 04 07	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-07 15:07
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-16 14:34
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-29 19:02
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Basquet Club Andorra	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-02 20:55