Even-Survey — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$115

Unrealized P&L

-$60

Hit rate

43.7%

Resolved

104

Trades

16,364

lifetime

Volume

$20.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$30

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 10:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

69% 40% -$65

Politics

18% 50% -$28

Crypto

8% 11% -$16

Tech

5% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+79	$23	6¢	$5	-$18	10-28 01:37
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	-50	-$11	10¢	$-5	+$6	10-30 20:45
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-19	-$4	23¢	$-4	-$1	04-29 01:03
Ledger IPO before 2027?	Yes	-80	-$14	4¢	$-3	+$11	04-29 08:38
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-50	-$11	6¢	$-3	+$8	05-02 18:07
Vanta IPO before 2027?	Yes	+50	$19	5¢	$2	-$17	10-23 07:15
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	-70	$0	3¢	$-2	-$2	04-30 07:17
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+27	$24	5¢	$1	-$23	10-30 19:54
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	-50	-$12	2¢	$-1	+$11	04-29 08:40
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+21	$4	5¢	$1	-$2	10-28 19:52
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?	Yes	+17	$16	3¢	$1	-$15	06-26 12:58
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Yes	-11	-$2	4¢	$-0	+$1	04-29 08:39
Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	-70	-$7	1¢	$-0	+$7	10-27 19:45
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	-21	$21	2¢	$-0	-$21	10-28 19:55
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	-4	$0	2¢	$-0	+$0	04-29 08:36
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	+0	$5	3¢	$0	-$5	10-30 20:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	420	$776	2,693	2,693	+0	open	—	10-28 19:54
will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	45	$477	488	488	+0	open	—	06-24 08:19
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	90	$446	1,179	1,229	-50	open	—	10-30 20:45
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	107	$430	1,541	1,513	+27	open	—	10-30 19:54
will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	21	$422	225	225	+0	Yes	+$0	06-23 07:36
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	99	$416	1,921	1,921	+0	open	—	10-29 17:40
will hylo launch a token by december 31 2027	40	$379	351	351	+0	open	—	06-24 08:21
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	98	$377	1,586	1,607	-21	open	—	10-28 19:55
will rabby launch a token by december 31 2027	42	$375	483	483	+0	open	—	06-24 08:20
will tread launch a token by december 31 2027	20	$352	210	210	+0	Yes	-$9	06-24 08:21
will reya launch a token by december 31 2027	28	$344	199	199	+0	open	—	06-24 08:20
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	94	$309	983	904	+79	open	—	10-28 01:37
will prjx launch a token by december 31 2027	33	$291	378	378	+0	open	—	06-19 09:23
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	1,066	$285	173,928	78,272	+95,656	No	-$62	06-03 22:21
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	98	$281	2,636	2,636	-0	open	—	10-28 19:54
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	63	$280	3,203	3,203	+0	open	—	10-30 20:50
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	108	$277	1,178	1,178	+0	open	—	10-30 20:45
will decibel launch a token by december 31 2027	24	$275	204	204	+0	open	—	06-24 08:19
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	89	$274	1,849	1,849	+0	open	—	10-30 20:51
will oro launch a token by december 31 2027	23	$267	241	241	+0	open	—	06-24 08:23
will bulk launch a token by june 30 2027	30	$266	202	202	+0	open	—	06-24 08:22
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	67	$260	1,437	1,437	+0	open	—	10-30 20:50
will axiom launch a token by december 31 2027	21	$231	254	254	+0	open	—	06-24 08:20
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	725	$228	114,193	114,193	-0	No	+$0	05-18 09:09
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	693	$220	107,800	110,056	-2,256	No	+$5	05-20 10:31
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	1,102	$216	102,578	107,792	-5,215	No	+$10	05-15 22:21
Glean IPO before 2027?	51	$213	1,107	1,107	+0	open	—	10-27 19:45
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	578	$205	102,643	102,643	+0	No	$0	05-20 10:31
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?	27	$201	580	564	+17	open	—	06-26 12:58
tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	19	$200	179	179	+0	Yes	-$4	06-17 16:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 10:20:42	Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xb27858…
10-30 20:54:22	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xde5604…
10-30 20:52:07	Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x0299af…
10-30 20:52:00	Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x1cb7f7…
10-30 20:51:52	Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x5e25e1…
10-30 20:51:45	Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x378ab5…
10-30 20:51:01	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	280	1¢	$3	0x868979…
10-30 20:50:43	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x058455…
10-30 20:50:30	Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x39edc5…
10-30 20:50:03	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	187	3¢	$6	0xb26adc…
10-30 20:49:21	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	103	6¢	$6	0xf193a4…
10-30 20:48:33	Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x61576d…
10-30 20:48:16	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x31923b…
10-30 20:45:55	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x64e125…
10-30 20:45:37	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x9e0270…
10-30 20:45:04	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	13¢	$3	0x6c7971…
10-30 20:01:13	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x65e47f…
10-30 19:54:18	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xd051ad…
10-30 19:18:39	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0x42fee1…
10-30 19:18:36	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x804680…
10-30 18:54:10	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$2	0x95ef16…
10-30 15:16:15	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0xeec1a2…
10-30 13:02:28	WHOOP IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	3¢	$2	0xefe661…
10-30 12:16:12	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0xc19768…
10-30 12:09:39	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	208	3¢	$7	0x71971a…
10-30 11:56:07	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x265889…
10-29 17:40:10	Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x2036d9…
10-29 01:20:16	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x015378…
10-29 01:13:07	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xd4233d…
10-29 01:13:07	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x628390…
10-29 01:13:07	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x262f4a…
10-29 01:13:04	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	3¢	$2	0x5524a4…
10-29 00:48:25	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x3f3834…
10-29 00:40:22	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x0b6ead…
10-29 00:07:44	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1cb23b…
10-28 23:48:26	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x45dfc7…
10-28 23:43:47	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0xb799fa…
10-28 23:43:46	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x6716e8…
10-28 23:05:26	Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x66073d…
10-28 20:23:41	Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x670189…
10-28 20:00:17	Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0xe5de42…
10-28 19:55:25	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xab9663…
10-28 19:55:17	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x3a342f…
10-28 19:55:05	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	1¢	$0	0xc8d1dd…
10-28 19:54:56	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x878838…
10-28 19:54:46	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	3¢	$3	0x6d4b94…
10-28 19:53:56	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xee53be…
10-28 19:52:55	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0xe4b3bd…
10-28 19:50:49	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa60b23…
10-28 19:48:58	WHOOP IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x141113…
10-28 19:48:11	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	208	3¢	$7	0x7d19ba…
10-28 19:07:25	WHOOP IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xf17543…
10-28 19:06:34	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	198	3¢	$7	0xef0121…
10-28 18:33:44	Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xc03e8f…
10-28 17:09:05	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xa2b98c…
10-28 16:43:25	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	154	2¢	$3	0x50dfa4…
10-28 14:48:13	Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xd78dbd…
10-28 14:41:40	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	195	3¢	$6	0x28d5ca…
10-28 14:34:59	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xd0d664…
10-28 12:45:13	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x1604d2…
10-28 12:09:34	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x9e134b…
10-28 09:41:49	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x33c330…
10-28 04:28:19	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x39d56c…
10-28 04:11:25	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x932851…
10-28 04:10:49	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xf4086e…
10-28 02:21:08	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x20ce05…
10-28 02:18:41	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x9d7ff8…
10-28 01:37:36	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x23ae4e…
10-28 01:37:35	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xe2cf27…
10-28 01:37:35	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x2b50a2…
10-27 21:50:51	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x85718c…
10-27 20:54:00	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0x3660d4…
10-27 20:52:08	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xf6b325…
10-27 19:49:41	Will Rivian announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	85	2¢	$2	0x547b22…
10-27 19:49:11	Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x9da8e0…
10-27 19:47:48	Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc844fd…
10-27 19:47:14	Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x1df2fb…
10-27 19:46:48	Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xaee733…
10-27 19:46:29	Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8630f6…
10-27 19:46:09	Will Jio Platforms be the largest Indian company?;	Yes	SELL	107	2¢	$2	0xf85ab7…
10-27 19:45:36	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	151	0¢	$0	0x801358…
10-27 19:45:26	Glean IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	216	1¢	$2	0x9e11fe…
10-27 19:44:09	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	82	2¢	$1	0xede7a4…
10-27 19:43:21	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x1e14a8…
10-27 19:42:53	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xe8dd14…
10-27 19:42:26	Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xf288ec…
10-27 19:41:39	Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	3¢	$2	0xf38ffb…
10-27 19:40:48	WHOOP IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x15d9fb…
10-27 19:40:42	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xa53ee0…
10-27 19:40:39	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x04963c…
10-27 19:37:27	Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7144f6…
10-27 19:37:17	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xc1f5c8…
10-27 19:37:00	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x40d8f6…
10-27 19:35:39	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xa36f32…
10-27 19:34:39	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x1564e0…
10-27 19:34:26	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2244c9…
10-27 19:33:59	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0xd978e3…
10-27 19:32:45	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	13¢	$5	0x10ff71…
10-27 09:40:12	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xc8e170…
10-27 09:40:06	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x3a21e5…