Fluid-Terrapin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

224

Trades

829

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-05 07:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

67% 26% -$55

Sports

22% 81% +$32

Politics

9% 75% -$12

Crypto

2% 0% -$6

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	-$3	80¢	$2	+$5	09-10 09:04
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	-$4	6¢	$0	+$4	05-11 02:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$399	200	200	+0	Yes	+$1	07-18 19:48
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	11	$390	200	200	+0	Yes	+$4	06-02 16:54
Spain snap election called in 2026?	22	$339	275	275	+0	Yes	-$21	10-05 07:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	6	$329	170	170	+0	No	+$8	09-10 09:02
world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	5	$299	150	150	+0	No	+$1	07-13 10:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	7	$261	140	140	+0	open	—	09-10 08:59
world cup largest margin of victory record broken 20260608190334705	4	$254	128	128	+0	No	+$1	07-13 10:27
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 31?	5	$239	240	240	+0	Yes	-$1	05-31 12:57
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31?	2	$231	120	120	+0	No	+$3	05-31 15:08
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 31?	12	$229	240	141	+99	No	+$1	05-31 23:30
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	2	$224	534	534	+0	Karmine Corp	+$0	05-17 17:52
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2?	12	$216	114	114	+0	No	+$1	06-02 14:17
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27?	2	$200	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 08:27
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	3	$200	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	07-16 16:56
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	07-03 16:59
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 10?	3	$197	100	100	+0	No	$0	06-10 21:22
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4?	2	$192	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	06-04 09:08
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?	6	$192	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	06-02 08:05
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9?	2	$188	95	95	+0	No	+$0	06-09 17:11
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6?	6	$187	100	100	+0	Yes	-$5	06-06 14:10
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	12	$180	480	240	+240	Yes	$0	05-23 15:02
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	11	$174	181	0	+181	No	+$7	06-29 18:37
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30?	2	$174	87	87	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 08:06
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	8	$174	180	0	+180	No	+$6	06-29 12:11
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?	3	$172	100	100	+0	Yes	-$16	06-03 15:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$169	120	52	+68	No	+$3	05-15 15:07
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	2	$160	80	80	+0	No	+$0	06-27 11:20
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$159	80	80	+0	No	+$0	08-05 12:47
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	13	$150	80	80	+0	open	—	08-19 02:53
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18?	1	$150	150	0	+150	Yes	+$0	06-18 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 07:54:31	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x504f3e…
10-05 07:39:08	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0x7db3fd…
10-05 07:36:28	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xff49ca…
10-01 22:27:17	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x6c883c…
09-30 16:02:15	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x2bcd5e…
09-26 23:34:53	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xf7332f…
09-22 06:13:06	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0xcff9fc…
09-10 09:04:45	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	85¢	$26	0xde1c3f…
09-10 09:03:42	Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	360	3¢	$10	0xb41dfc…
09-10 09:02:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0x33bb61…
09-10 08:59:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x0b7453…
09-10 08:57:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	79	99¢	$79	0xbc93d3…
09-04 15:54:51	Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	526	10¢	$53	0x89570f…
09-03 22:57:21	Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xe006cc…
09-03 21:44:15	Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x79fcd1…
09-03 21:41:00	Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	350	13¢	$46	0x03dc3a…
09-02 19:59:51	Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	626	9¢	$54	0xf5335e…
09-02 00:17:40	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x033d68…
09-02 00:16:43	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x65ba97…
09-01 17:40:04	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	19	65¢	$12	0xbecc8d…
08-25 20:36:28	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0x488519…
08-24 23:26:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x1e385f…
08-24 23:26:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x5a9115…
08-24 16:10:39	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x0a0a83…
08-23 18:13:31	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x42757b…
08-21 17:36:33	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xe3946b…
08-21 16:15:54	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x67b76f…
08-20 05:37:16	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x532e2d…
08-19 02:53:36	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xed386a…
08-18 21:39:52	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x7f72a0…
08-18 20:52:57	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x923c90…
08-18 20:52:43	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xcedb9b…
08-18 20:52:16	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0xa2664c…
08-18 20:51:54	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x7a9d9d…
08-18 20:51:21	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x4ab33e…
08-18 09:13:25	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by december 31 20260630194337738	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x39dc89…
08-18 04:45:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x970b46…
08-16 15:16:52	Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?	No	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x44ef00…
08-15 20:36:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1134fb…
08-12 09:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7e9cf7…
08-09 15:04:13	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2e804d…
08-09 10:17:16	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0xc9c8fc…
08-05 12:47:54	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x6de29b…
08-04 08:42:15	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xe7c0fb…
08-01 00:44:06	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by july 31 20260626194611633	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x6fbbde…
07-31 16:06:36	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by december 31 20260630194337738	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x2333ec…
07-31 16:06:33	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by december 31 20260630194337738	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x2f8d8f…
07-30 23:22:24	spain snap election called by august 31 2026 20260624205647682	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa62ed4…
07-30 16:15:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x9cb646…
07-28 21:18:59	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xf132ea…
07-28 15:31:10	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0x7b0a75…
07-25 19:34:36	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x7ec529…
07-24 18:53:34	Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x34ca4d…
07-24 16:08:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x2b74b0…
07-20 12:20:21	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x886419…
07-20 11:44:15	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x08b9e0…
07-19 17:56:42	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x83b14e…
07-19 11:31:25	world cup final any player to score a hat trick 20260716194352297	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xc0c408…
07-19 10:46:21	world cup fastest goal in a final record broken 20260609182956386	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x0df649…
07-18 23:51:33	will antonela roccuzzo attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357137	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7d1cc1…
07-18 19:48:12	Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xe65289…
07-17 19:08:12	will there be 10 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750574	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf7f23f…
07-16 16:56:46	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x0d9bbd…
07-15 22:10:11	world cup goals h2h yamal vspt mbappe 20260604014012402	Mbappe	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4b9850…
07-15 19:31:07	world cup single match yellow cards record broken 20260608181825534	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x1f9a04…
07-15 16:54:08	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$8	0x3b9d6b…
07-15 07:48:44	world cup single match yellow cards record broken 20260608181825534	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x501c30…
07-14 23:37:38	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb42665…
07-14 20:07:34	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0x5bac38…
07-14 13:20:38	world cup goals h2h yamal vspt mbappe 20260604014012402	Mbappe	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xd25c8f…
07-14 11:11:29	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xdf055f…
07-13 17:15:28	will there be 10 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750574	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x6dcb93…
07-13 14:13:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2aa2ed…
07-13 11:34:49	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe9c0f6…
07-13 11:33:43	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe4ba63…
07-13 11:33:41	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x4a0579…
07-13 10:42:14	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc0fece…
07-13 10:27:23	world cup largest margin of victory record broken 20260608190334705	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0xf9849f…
07-13 10:24:56	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x8e3960…
07-12 18:39:22	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xe1be33…
07-12 11:03:10	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x5688ce…
07-12 10:25:08	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	38¢	$12	0xb32b5c…
07-12 10:24:59	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xded95e…
07-12 10:24:59	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x12c105…
07-12 10:24:56	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	66	38¢	$25	0x71f5f0…
07-09 17:53:11	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x61f0e1…
07-09 17:52:05	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xe30afd…
07-09 16:27:01	world cup largest margin of victory record broken 20260608190334705	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xad72e6…
07-09 08:18:20	Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$139	0x4ad8f0…
07-08 14:17:23	Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8178c0…
07-08 14:14:23	Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x51e3bc…
07-07 19:00:44	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xc9f6c9…
07-07 16:45:19	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x947422…
07-07 09:53:38	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc2dade…
07-07 09:52:05	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8f4f9d…
07-07 01:39:22	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xf75af6…
07-06 23:43:40	world cup goals h2h haaland vspt alvarez 20260604011418095	Haaland	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x55053e…
07-06 22:46:26	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x1e1bd1…
07-05 23:10:38	Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc02603…
07-05 23:01:19	Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xff112f…