Closed-Deputy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

82.8%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$599

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-07 01:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

56% 50% +$15

Politics

44% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+20	$3	57¢	$12	+$8	06-07 01:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	11	$112	68	1,968	-1,900	open	—	01-30 00:25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	5	$30	426	155	+271	open	—	04-24 14:07
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	3	$27	26	26	+0	open	—	03-25 13:56
kristi noem out by march 31	7	$18	25	25	+0	open	—	03-05 18:36
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	5	$17	25	25	+0	open	—	02-10 18:19
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	4	$16	222	222	+0	open	—	04-27 14:34
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	3	$16	1,667	1,250	+417	open	—	02-17 19:23
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	4	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	03-11 20:21
will the us add between 25k and 50k jobs in february	1	$15	64	0	+64	open	—	03-02 13:45
will canadas annual inflation increase by 2pt0 in december	2	$14	26	13	+13	open	—	01-16 18:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$13	12	12	+0	open	—	01-26 17:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 22:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 22:33
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	4	$10	33	13	+20	open	—	01-18 14:11
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	03-10 17:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$9	16	16	+0	open	—	04-16 16:35
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	04-25 18:36
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-02 10:22
will the january 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt5	2	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	01-29 01:37
will the us add between 50k and 75k jobs in february	2	$7	20	20	+0	open	—	03-02 13:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	05-06 08:50
will the january 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	3	$6	30	0	+30	open	—	01-31 07:54
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	01-29 13:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$6	18	18	+0	open	—	03-26 09:48
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt3 in january 418	3	$6	15	5	+10	open	—	01-31 18:10
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	6	$6	15	15	+0	open	—	03-21 04:20
will donald trump not announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve before february 2026	3	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	01-29 17:17
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	3	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	03-10 20:12
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit?	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 14:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$5	10	10	+0	open	—	05-06 08:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 01:19:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xac6822…
05-23 16:01:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x6298c4…
05-23 15:50:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe16e94…
05-22 20:15:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x91202c…
05-22 20:15:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xf73178…
05-20 18:50:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0xda7b91…
05-15 18:28:31	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x23ce77…
05-15 17:36:36	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf05dad…
05-14 10:17:29	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0xb9ae27…
05-11 18:47:37	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xf20a98…
05-06 09:56:26	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x8674ff…
05-06 09:55:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xb32615…
05-06 09:55:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x65c8d2…
05-06 08:52:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x678992…
05-06 08:50:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x0ab26b…
04-29 19:07:44	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe88c81…
04-29 18:24:24	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xae6ae1…
04-29 13:29:52	Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb966d3…
04-29 00:03:02	Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xe968a2…
04-28 15:55:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xe4e919…
04-28 14:54:20	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x818f34…
04-28 14:45:40	Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfbb135…
04-28 14:13:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x9fb149…
04-28 12:51:52	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x00a064…
04-27 17:28:50	Will Leavitt say "Gas" or "Gallon" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x7d6314…
04-27 17:22:10	Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xeccab6…
04-27 17:13:00	Will Leavitt say "Successful" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe97b47…
04-27 14:34:14	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	SELL	222	3¢	$8	0x85dc63…
04-27 10:38:04	Will Leavitt say "Very clear" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x7d48bd…
04-27 10:37:18	Will Leavitt say "Commander-in-Chief" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xa628c8…
04-26 12:22:04	Will Powell say "Governor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x75b592…
04-25 18:36:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x342e5e…
04-24 19:03:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x12a371…
04-24 14:33:26	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	BUY	64	5¢	$3	0x28a93b…
04-24 14:08:50	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x61f938…
04-24 14:08:26	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd96d8d…
04-24 14:07:54	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	3¢	$3	0xa8abf3…
04-23 18:48:22	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x72c176…
04-23 18:32:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xe06d29…
04-17 15:30:08	Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xed41be…
04-17 01:30:08	Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$0	0x52745d…
04-16 16:35:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x644820…
04-15 19:28:42	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xc2224b…
04-13 16:33:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x03d546…
04-10 12:26:27	will annual inflation increase by 3pt3 in march	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xcbc1e3…
04-07 22:34:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xa7a58c…
04-07 22:33:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xf47af6…
04-07 21:00:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x36258b…
04-07 20:36:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x00eb8f…
04-02 14:32:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xdafa16…
03-26 14:13:41	will the bank of mexico announce no change at the march meeting	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x08dafe…
03-26 13:05:57	will the south african reserve bank decrease the repo rate after the march meeting	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xf069c9…
03-26 09:48:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0x345987…
03-25 18:15:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf0ea9d…
03-25 13:56:27	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	SELL	26	44¢	$12	0xc33446…
03-24 21:57:09	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x038127…
03-24 21:53:57	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x2cb812…
03-24 21:53:49	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x88b3b2…
03-21 04:20:37	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0x001918…
03-21 04:20:33	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xcbdfb1…
03-18 21:44:29	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x2c21b2…
03-15 02:34:15	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0xa4ec46…
03-15 02:00:29	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xaff51c…
03-15 01:59:29	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x029081…
03-15 01:59:27	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xe5c1c4…
03-15 01:59:27	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x4dd889…
03-15 01:48:49	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	49	1¢	$1	0xff8d0c…
03-14 19:17:13	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x96d9aa…
03-14 19:15:59	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x027f6c…
03-14 19:15:27	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x84ae71…
03-11 20:21:19	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x5172f6…
03-10 20:12:09	will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x02c138…
03-10 18:54:49	will the south african reserve bank decrease the repo rate after the march meeting	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x72a124…
03-10 17:34:45	Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x9f01d7…
03-09 22:23:19	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xcf996b…
03-09 22:06:27	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x646b31…
03-09 20:40:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7ba137…
03-08 11:10:03	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt3 in february 312	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xded007…
03-07 14:35:09	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x530639…
03-05 18:36:31	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x28cb22…
03-05 14:49:15	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x6f7938…
03-05 10:40:37	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x845768…
03-04 22:17:03	will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xfe8270…
03-04 22:17:03	will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xd71b2c…
03-04 22:17:03	will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x2a4504…
03-04 17:57:23	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by march 31 2026	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x442cc9…
03-03 13:01:37	will the south african reserve bank decrease the repo rate after the march meeting	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xc40e08…
03-02 13:45:09	will the us add between 25k and 50k jobs in february	Yes	BUY	64	23¢	$15	0x2262cb…
03-02 13:44:41	will the us add between 50k and 75k jobs in february	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xcda002…
03-02 13:44:41	will the us add between 75k and 100k jobs in february	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x6ca57c…
03-02 10:22:39	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x99a18b…
03-02 10:20:07	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x8fcaea…
02-28 20:38:57	will the secret agent win best picture at the 98th academy awards 938	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x33b58c…
02-28 20:37:51	will it was just an accident win best international feature film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x8176c5…
02-28 13:40:27	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x3b17b3…
02-27 13:00:39	will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt2	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xdd3377…
02-27 12:59:05	will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt2	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x6591a0…
02-25 17:32:22	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xaf999a…
02-25 16:21:14	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x3afc2a…
02-25 14:17:38	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by march 31 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x879821…