Scholarly-Carving — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.45K

Unrealized P&L

+$101

Hit rate

63.3%

Resolved

420

Trades

2,848

lifetime

Volume

$221.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$204

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-11 14:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 189 days

Categories

Other

82% 44% -$5,323

Politics

12% 33% -$2,937

Crypto

3% 49% -$85

Sports

2% 29% -$126

Tech

1% 100% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+200	$68	44¢	$87	+$19	09-24 08:43
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+100	$23	29¢	$28	+$5	09-20 20:41
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+200	$10	7¢	$14	+$4	09-03 13:34
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	-200	-$44	6¢	$-13	+$31	06-02 10:24
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+100	$13	12¢	$12	$0	08-16 21:51
andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	+100	$2	8¢	$9	+$6	08-27 21:57
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-100	-$49	7¢	$-7	+$42	05-03 19:49
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+300	$6	2¢	$7	+$0	08-20 09:53
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+400	$10	2¢	$7	-$3	08-16 22:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+40	$11	12¢	$5	-$6	09-04 06:20
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-100	-$30	4¢	$-4	+$25	06-02 10:25
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+100	$7	4¢	$4	-$3	08-15 06:33
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+20	$4	15¢	$3	-$1	04-30 18:47
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+200	$8	1¢	$2	-$6	07-26 06:02
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+20	$4	5¢	$1	-$3	04-30 02:03
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+200	$10	0¢	$0	-$10	09-02 18:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	8	$15.9K	8,000	8,100	-100	Yes	+$55	01-03 09:49
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 140 164	8	$12.9K	6,901	6,901	+0	No	+$839	01-10 14:26
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	188	$12.1K	13,982	12,764	+1,218	Yes	-$866	01-29 17:55
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 165 189	31	$7.9K	13,300	0	+13,300	Yes	-$7,940	01-17 16:58
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 110 119	3	$7.9K	4,042	4,042	+0	No	+$150	01-07 16:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	376	$7.1K	40,201	36,368	+3,833	No	-$191	03-30 11:09
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	2	$6.9K	6,863	0	+6,863	No	+$7	01-10 16:41
will mrbeasts next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 948	16	$6.3K	3,394	3,654	-260	No	+$113	01-08 17:22
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	43	$5.7K	5,995	5,647	+348	No	-$380	01-10 14:00
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 500 519	20	$5.5K	6,336	0	+6,336	No	+$819	01-16 14:39
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	44	$4.6K	2,951	2,952	-0	Yes	+$19	03-06 12:44
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	69	$4.1K	1,916	3,346	-1,430	No	-$308	02-27 10:10
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 500 519	3	$4.0K	5,822	0	+5,822	Yes	+$1,832	01-02 16:49
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 90 114	27	$3.5K	2,548	2,453	+95	Yes	+$139	03-07 10:22
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 90 114	27	$3.4K	2,458	2,458	+0	Yes	+$133	03-09 10:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	18	$3.3K	2,134	2,239	-105	Yes	-$24	03-06 14:16
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 540 559	3	$3.1K	3,175	0	+3,175	No	+$92	01-09 09:01
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 140plus	114	$2.9K	3,624	0	+3,624	Yes	+$770	01-07 17:05
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$2.8K	2,389	2,389	+0	Yes	-$67	06-05 21:43
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 264	6	$2.5K	1,701	1,701	+0	Yes	+$246	01-08 10:57
ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	4	$2.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$0	04-14 08:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	21	$2.3K	2,132	1,632	+500	Yes	+$369	05-08 18:56
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 460 479	30	$2.1K	2,822	546	+2,276	No	+$902	01-02 16:22
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	10	$2.0K	1,057	1,057	+0	No	-$38	03-15 17:57
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 460 479	10	$2.0K	2,021	0	+2,021	No	+$25	01-05 20:17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	19	$2.0K	2,523	0	+2,523	Yes	-$1,981	07-21 15:23
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 spread home 1pt5	3	$1.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	Paris Saint-Germain FC	+$0	04-08 10:23
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	55	$1.8K	3,347	3,409	-62	No	-$134	03-08 18:20
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 280 299	4	$1.8K	883	883	+0	No	+$2	02-27 08:21
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	11	$1.7K	1,093	1,093	+0	No	$0	03-10 11:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 14:51:21	Hull City AFC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	40	21¢	$8	0xe2d6ad…
10-11 14:50:36	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xb6497a…
10-11 14:50:31	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x0b8957…
10-11 14:50:19	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x598e05…
10-11 13:29:51	Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x0ddbda…
10-10 15:42:31	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x48cf17…
10-10 14:00:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x784a33…
10-07 15:40:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xb67f00…
10-07 15:07:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x0d5cb8…
10-07 15:02:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x8c7191…
10-06 13:01:27	West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies	West Indies	BUY	50	23¢	$11	0x287f18…
10-05 10:25:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x82f800…
10-05 09:03:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x27f36d…
10-05 09:03:22	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb5142a…
10-05 09:03:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xc3154f…
09-30 14:50:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x5812a0…
09-28 12:04:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3faf49…
09-24 08:43:59	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x4ae85c…
09-23 13:53:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x4d78db…
09-21 20:38:00	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xdcbcd2…
09-21 14:34:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x1061bb…
09-20 20:41:22	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x5a2196…
09-20 18:43:29	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0x9a0f3d…
09-20 11:48:07	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0xf1d581…
09-20 09:21:09	Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$2	0x0f6094…
09-19 15:51:11	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x92e153…
09-19 15:50:45	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x1d7219…
09-19 15:26:36	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	76	50¢	$38	0xfd1b5c…
09-19 15:25:33	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x764182…
09-19 15:25:32	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x5467de…
09-19 15:25:27	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xddc854…
09-19 15:04:39	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x068c83…
09-19 14:57:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x9f5a2c…
09-19 14:56:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0xf8decf…
09-19 14:56:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x517ea8…
09-19 14:56:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	43	17¢	$7	0x69a225…
09-19 14:56:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xc1867c…
09-19 14:56:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x11a0d1…
09-19 13:42:29	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$15	0x24eb80…
09-19 13:37:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x8cacb5…
09-19 13:35:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0x4deadb…
09-19 13:19:36	Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xacff51…
09-19 13:16:59	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xe6f9fe…
09-19 13:05:06	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xdb2db6…
09-18 15:01:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x62fa5c…
09-18 14:58:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0xb35541…
09-17 01:22:33	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xaee87c…
09-16 19:44:03	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xaf2132…
09-15 18:38:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x2e16c4…
09-15 14:42:16	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5369c0…
09-15 14:12:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xcf578b…
09-14 15:01:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xb2b945…
09-14 14:39:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x19f968…
09-13 16:29:25	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xd7ff32…
09-13 14:50:09	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x9e44d5…
09-13 14:49:39	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x13cf0c…
09-13 14:44:03	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xd658e7…
09-13 14:43:43	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x9e8495…
09-13 14:36:25	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1f384b…
09-13 13:40:25	Coventry City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x75616a…
09-12 07:54:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x01f512…
09-12 07:54:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0x8aa617…
09-12 07:54:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x034cd0…
09-12 07:54:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x19e3bc…
09-12 07:52:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x8bfe1d…
09-12 07:32:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x38e1b2…
09-11 15:06:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0x30d039…
09-11 15:06:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x23427c…
09-11 13:46:10	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xc70d13…
09-11 08:11:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xe3408b…
09-11 08:02:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	652	0¢	$3	0x2a7e92…
09-11 08:00:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x9181cd…
09-11 07:59:03	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	75	44¢	$33	0xce36aa…
09-09 14:58:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xf2f7c8…
09-09 13:41:51	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	SELL	300	78¢	$234	0xd764fb…
09-09 13:33:22	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	179	78¢	$140	0xfc8ac6…
09-09 13:33:15	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	121	78¢	$94	0xdd5e9a…
09-09 13:27:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xeff758…
09-08 14:15:33	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x668e62…
09-08 14:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x8ba311…
09-08 09:18:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xd84f18…
09-08 09:17:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x2fa738…
09-08 09:17:39	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x441671…
09-08 09:12:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	27	8¢	$2	0xe8deea…
09-07 11:17:19	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xa5f6c8…
09-06 14:12:12	Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	78	77¢	$60	0x4c4637…
09-06 14:12:04	Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xc2e004…
09-05 11:04:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xdf0b38…
09-05 11:04:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xd27c84…
09-04 15:24:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xceff18…
09-04 14:33:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x123a1d…
09-04 13:44:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x6345af…
09-04 08:15:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	9	60¢	$6	0x2946a9…
09-04 08:14:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0x3108b5…
09-04 06:20:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x36ef8e…
09-03 13:34:52	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x9a1a70…
09-02 18:44:49	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x3bb129…
09-02 14:49:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xea88e8…
09-02 11:13:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xbb3ff0…
09-01 15:22:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xc3ee7e…