Hollow-Probation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

20.2%

Resolved

Trades

319

lifetime

Volume

$2.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-01 01:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

55% 43% +$2

Politics

25% — —

Sports

12% 0% $-22

Pop-Culture

7% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?	Yes		-9	$-0	1¢	$-0	+$0	06-12 11:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	7	$148	175	175	+0	open	—	02-10 12:19
will brazil record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 757	8	$145	100	100	+0	open	—	02-14 13:34
will kanye release bully by january 30	2	$142	93	93	+0	open	—	01-28 17:12
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	3	$129	89	89	+0	open	—	03-06 23:04
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$125	309	309	+0	open	—	03-29 12:40
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$96	84	84	+0	open	—	04-05 13:16
ucl int2 bog1 2026 02 24 bog1	3	$93	86	86	+0	open	—	02-24 21:57
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$72	50	50	+0	open	—	03-30 22:21
ucl rma1 ben 2026 02 25 rma1	3	$69	44	44	+0	open	—	02-25 22:13
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	8	$67	86	86	+0	No	$-20	03-02 20:48
will trumps approval rating be between 40pt5 and 40pt9 on january 30 2026	2	$61	48	48	+0	open	—	01-29 12:16
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$56	36	36	+0	open	—	01-31 12:04
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$49	34	34	+0	open	—	04-10 10:46
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	2	$48	115	115	+0	open	—	03-11 21:38
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22 game handicap home 2pt5	2	$48	28	28	+0	open	—	03-22 13:59
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$48	449	449	+0	open	—	03-13 21:15
lol gen g2 2026 03 21 game handicap away 2pt5	3	$45	30	30	+0	open	—	03-21 13:52
will xqc beat forsens minecraft speedrun record by january 31	2	$40	213	0	+213	open	—	01-23 12:55
will epstein be said at the oscars	6	$39	96	0	+96	open	—	03-12 10:48
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	2	$35	75	75	+0	open	—	04-09 12:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$34	62	62	+0	open	—	04-05 15:30
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22 game4	2	$33	28	28	+0	open	—	03-22 19:54
ucl spo1 bog1 2026 03 17 bog1	2	$30	151	0	+151	open	—	03-17 13:47
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22 game1	2	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	03-22 13:58
elc wre swa 2026 03 13 wre	2	$29	47	0	+47	open	—	03-13 21:15
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$28	1,416	667	+749	open	—	03-11 11:21
will peaky blinders the immortal man score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	1	$25	60	0	+60	open	—	03-06 23:10
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game handicap home 2pt5	2	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	03-20 14:13
winter games 2026 will usa or norway earn more medals	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	02-18 19:26
was ilhan omar sprayed with urine 496	2	$21	80	80	+0	open	—	01-29 00:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 01:23:47	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xa3c5be…
06-30 16:09:43	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals erling haaland gte2	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x01b912…
06-29 07:48:23	will norway reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120769	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x75bb58…
06-29 07:44:19	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x74753c…
06-29 07:43:52	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xf438e2…
06-26 17:53:02	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 second half team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xbbe209…
06-26 17:52:34	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x68d0ad…
06-26 17:51:11	fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 spread home 2pt5	Senegal	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xa4bc6a…
06-26 17:49:43	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	France	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x87b9f1…
06-25 21:27:14	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	Ecuador	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x54c087…
06-25 19:08:14	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	Ecuador	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x310844…
06-25 19:07:52	fifwc kor civ 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	Curaçao	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x0a8884…
06-24 17:18:13	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 spread home 1pt5	Qatar	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x2b0bf9…
06-24 17:17:17	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x228117…
06-24 17:17:01	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc9b684…
06-24 17:12:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	19	38¢	$7	0x28f918…
06-22 14:26:49	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5b807d…
06-17 23:29:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x247f6a…
06-16 19:02:16	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xa641e0…
06-14 18:47:51	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x334c9b…
06-14 18:44:19	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x8346d5…
06-12 11:03:33	US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x50d154…
06-07 23:38:27	world cup messi to score a free kick 20260605004937388	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x0f8b95…
05-29 09:33:54	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)	Kiwoom DRX	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x874c12…
05-29 09:28:23	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe5f3bb…
05-29 09:09:10	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)	Kiwoom DRX	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xf2a953…
05-28 12:20:13	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)	KT Rolster	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1980d4…
05-28 11:57:32	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)	KT Rolster	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x58000a…
05-15 13:45:24	Will "Obsession" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf0c9ec…
05-14 20:44:39	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x39ee35…
05-14 20:43:29	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x87e130…
05-12 16:06:52	Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	BC.Game Esports	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x91f983…
05-11 01:56:07	Will "Obsession" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x715162…
05-10 16:36:28	LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc01bc1…
05-10 15:22:58	LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd652ee…
05-10 15:22:54	LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdca5c0…
05-10 15:22:44	LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4763c4…
05-06 19:45:00	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x102a26…
05-06 18:36:40	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xb6abea…
05-06 18:36:19	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5622f8…
05-06 18:35:07	Jamal Musiala: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x01edaf…
05-06 18:34:53	Lennart Karl: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xa28dd9…
05-06 12:18:34	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x4758e7…
04-21 11:14:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	196	5¢	$10	0x78bb54…
04-19 20:37:50	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	23	25¢	$6	0x6ff835…
04-19 15:27:06	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xcec940…
04-14 21:04:18	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x29fa8d…
04-14 20:28:48	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0xbdec93…
04-14 19:53:52	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 exact score 1 2	Yes	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0x369a82…
04-14 18:35:52	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 exact score 0 2	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xf55c4b…
04-14 18:35:48	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 exact score 1 2	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xf96314…
04-14 18:33:54	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x007005…
04-14 18:28:58	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x2506b3…
04-14 18:26:16	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x388dcd…
04-10 19:31:59	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	SELL	126	2¢	$3	0x56ddd4…
04-10 10:47:29	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xf5cd1e…
04-10 10:46:53	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	34	86¢	$29	0x95f63c…
04-10 10:38:27	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x3f4899…
04-10 10:35:37	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x94b382…
04-10 10:34:13	lol hle1 fox1 2026 04 10 game1	Hanwha Life Esports	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x4252a0…
04-10 10:17:05	lol hle1 fox1 2026 04 10 game1	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x17470b…
04-09 12:13:59	Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x572264…
04-09 12:12:41	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	41	24¢	$10	0x943994…
04-09 12:11:37	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	SELL	75	20¢	$15	0x3768ce…
04-09 10:46:15	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0xee70ff…
04-08 16:33:15	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x043b06…
04-08 16:26:59	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x114862…
04-08 16:26:41	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0x037ff8…
04-08 16:26:11	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x1d3cdc…
04-08 11:06:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	16¢	$4	0x748a19…
04-08 10:28:51	US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0xbb57e4…
04-06 10:59:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x04d953…
04-05 15:36:57	US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xd41543…
04-05 15:30:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	37	18¢	$7	0x41b4a2…
04-05 15:29:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xd3835e…
04-05 15:29:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x4563b2…
04-05 13:25:15	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x77902e…
04-05 13:16:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xe8139b…
04-01 09:55:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x4306fa…
03-30 22:24:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xb70809…
03-30 22:21:49	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xec0855…
03-30 22:21:45	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	23	49¢	$11	0x22bd7c…
03-29 12:40:40	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	136	9¢	$13	0xfb45ae…
03-26 13:27:29	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x802059…
03-24 08:19:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xa425a1…
03-24 08:19:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xb883c3…
03-24 08:19:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	136	22¢	$30	0x3fe70f…
03-23 20:00:33	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 80m and 85m	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x97ae23…
03-23 15:08:17	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x344fed…
03-23 12:46:11	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x5fd0fb…
03-23 12:38:35	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	28	12¢	$3	0xaed39f…
03-23 12:38:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	36	7¢	$2	0xb6a881…
03-23 12:38:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	25	31¢	$8	0xf4b983…
03-22 21:58:17	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x3e85d7…
03-22 21:58:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x4c1522…
03-22 21:57:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x1cefa7…
03-22 21:55:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	49	43¢	$21	0x318cee…
03-22 19:55:13	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x851d76…
03-22 19:54:33	lol g2 blg 2026 03 22 game4	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x39499c…
03-22 16:19:31	lol g2 blg 2026 03 22 game4	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x52e259…