Harmful-Biscuit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$286

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$38

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 06-27 03:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% — —

Politics

37% 0% $-5

Tech

3% 0% $-2

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No	-26	$-20	88¢	$-23	$-2	05-29 13:44
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	-12	$-10	85¢	$-10	+$0	06-14 02:48
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?	No	+6	$5	82¢	$5	+$0	05-29 14:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$25	21	16	+5	open	—	05-13 15:42
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	05-18 19:26
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	05-13 23:57
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	06-01 15:04
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-16 17:01
US recession by end of 2026?	1	$20	0	26	-26	open	—	05-29 13:44
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-20 14:29
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	1	$10	0	12	-12	open	—	06-14 02:48
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-15 17:36
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-19 03:47
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-08 17:23
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-16 13:41
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 13:32
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-13 16:53
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	1	$10	0	12	-12	open	—	05-29 13:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-13 15:42
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$6	27	0	+27	open	—	01-20 03:36
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-19 05:28
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-29 14:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	$-5	04-30 14:03
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	01-17 22:39
will bitcoin reach 100k january 12 18	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-17 22:40
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	05-14 16:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-13 16:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-28 14:52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-28 14:52
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?	2	$1	20	20	+0	open	—	06-27 03:04
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	1	$1	2	0	+2	No	$-1	05-02 22:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	01-17 22:37
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	1	$1	4	0	+4	No	$-1	05-02 22:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 03:04:16	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x56282c…
06-19 13:24:59	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xdf61d6…
06-14 02:48:51	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0xae5eba…
06-01 22:34:52	Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x009bb7…
06-01 15:04:33	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x22276f…
05-29 14:48:09	Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x1cd1ca…
05-29 13:44:46	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0x950999…
05-29 13:44:30	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	79¢	$20	0x9dcd4d…
05-20 14:29:38	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x149264…
05-19 03:47:36	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0b1a31…
05-18 19:26:15	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0x05f75c…
05-17 15:06:53	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xa66096…
05-16 17:01:56	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x00ff59…
05-16 13:41:49	Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x6d554c…
05-16 13:32:07	Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x291ed6…
05-15 17:36:06	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x3f1162…
05-14 16:40:58	Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x783007…
05-14 00:48:45	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xcba4ad…
05-13 23:57:59	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$11	0xd79c7b…
05-13 16:53:59	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x44d6b1…
05-13 16:51:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xbd1fd1…
05-13 15:42:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xdd6673…
05-13 15:42:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xd6f607…
05-08 17:23:34	Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x32cce5…
05-07 21:43:12	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x3a4b9f…
05-03 17:42:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x289a5a…
05-02 22:18:32	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xb95a09…
05-02 22:18:20	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x44c70c…
05-02 16:15:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9d2bd4…
05-02 16:14:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x146de1…
05-01 12:53:14	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x39ce5c…
04-30 14:03:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xf50246…
04-30 14:00:22	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3d9bb5…
04-29 23:30:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x45dd38…
04-29 23:20:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xf77735…
04-28 17:28:10	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x565c0e…
04-28 17:07:10	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x955cb2…
04-28 17:06:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xcdcdc1…
04-28 14:52:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xde21cf…
04-28 14:52:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd97e11…
02-19 05:28:46	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x8ac034…
01-20 03:36:38	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x46b34e…
01-17 22:47:44	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0e5a4c…
01-17 22:41:58	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x82675b…
01-17 22:40:46	will bitcoin reach 100k january 12 18	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x92bbc5…
01-17 22:39:24	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x95e529…
01-17 22:37:46	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2ac9dc…