Thorny-Trout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.38K

Unrealized P&L

-$37.2K

Hit rate

6.4%

Resolved

Trades

307

lifetime

Volume

$49.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$161

Open exposure

$6.80K

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 08-14 14:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

90% 25% -$198

Politics

6% 0% -$859

Sports

4% 33% -$1,290

Crypto

0% 0% -$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+315,886	$43,937	2¢	$6.8K	-$37,146	06-23 21:38
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+624	$16	1¢	$9	-$7	08-14 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	264	$43.9K	315,886	0	+315,886	open	—	06-23 21:38
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	6	$3.0K	3,056	3,056	+0	Yes	-$807	06-05 21:31
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	9	$1.1K	1,942	0	+1,942	Knicks	-$1,085	06-06 00:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$187	3,893	0	+3,893	No	-$187	06-24 03:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$168	1,099	1,099	+0	open	—	05-19 23:48
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	1	$149	286	0	+286	Knicks	+$137	05-19 23:51
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5	2	$143	263	263	+0	Over	-$141	05-23 03:21
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	1	$128	284	0	+284	Spurs	-$128	05-08 23:14
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21?	2	$110	83	83	+0	Up	+$10	05-21 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$65	140	140	+0	Up	-$35	05-19 14:38
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$52	517	0	+517	No	-$52	05-08 22:45
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$50	147	0	+147	Spurs	-$50	05-09 00:38
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	1	$50	93	0	+93	Thunder	+$43	05-20 23:38
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5	1	$46	86	0	+86	Over	-$46	05-09 21:56
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$21	21,321	0	+21,321	No	-$21	06-05 13:57
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Twisted Minds - Game 1 Winner	1	$20	38	0	+38	Twisted Minds	-$20	05-11 19:59
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	1	$16	624	0	+624	open	—	08-14 14:47
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$12	312	312	+0	No	+$2	06-08 02:55
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$11	53	53	+0	No	+$1	06-10 20:33
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	125	125	+0	No	+$0	06-10 20:33
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$9	263	263	+0	No	-$1	06-10 20:33
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	1	$1	143	0	+143	No	-$1	05-24 03:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 14:47:12	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	624	3¢	$16	0x3f101d…
06-24 03:03:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,893	5¢	$187	0xb6637e…
06-23 21:38:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55,000	10¢	$5,500	0x4f4636…
06-10 23:57:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	292	13¢	$38	0xa808e9…
06-10 23:07:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	32,941	14¢	$4,612	0x08d4e2…
06-10 20:35:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	14¢	$14	0x03ed0e…
06-10 20:33:33	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	263	2¢	$4	0x214d63…
06-10 20:33:30	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	125	4¢	$5	0xba7a73…
06-10 20:33:28	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	53	11¢	$6	0x2d7e1b…
06-08 18:24:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	81	14¢	$11	0xc2c028…
06-08 02:55:48	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	312	2¢	$7	0xaacf9d…
06-06 00:11:04	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x47d575…
06-05 21:48:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe41f97…
06-05 21:47:19	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	1,679	56¢	$940	0x2e02f9…
06-05 21:43:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	72	55¢	$39	0xe9570e…
06-05 21:43:06	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x5c1b47…
06-05 21:40:01	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	111	55¢	$61	0x040167…
06-05 21:36:15	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xa2852d…
06-05 21:34:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdb4c52…
06-05 21:33:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 1h spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x98b943…
06-05 21:31:01	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	SELL	3,053	37¢	$1,116	0xe51e8a…
06-05 21:20:10	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x725a2d…
06-05 13:57:37	Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21,321	0¢	$21	0x059904…
06-05 12:51:45	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	1,701	63¢	$1,071	0x1c4ca1…
06-05 09:56:22	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	246	63¢	$155	0x157d10…
06-04 23:33:55	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xac883a…
06-04 23:33:13	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	312	2¢	$5	0x73c295…
06-04 23:32:42	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0xd84891…
06-04 23:31:57	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xb887fb…
06-04 23:22:51	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	1,089	63¢	$686	0x5d0cba…
06-01 17:43:55	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0xce162e…
05-29 09:06:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	108	15¢	$16	0xd845ca…
05-29 08:51:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x7fc491…
05-29 08:42:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x717f35…
05-29 08:34:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x05761d…
05-29 08:33:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xa2330d…
05-29 08:33:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xf5dbb3…
05-29 07:57:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x99d768…
05-29 07:57:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x2c34a8…
05-29 07:52:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x9ee116…
05-29 07:52:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x4e6514…
05-29 07:52:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x222ca0…
05-29 07:52:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x6f72ce…
05-29 06:58:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,489	15¢	$223	0xff9ac2…
05-28 22:00:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6,095	15¢	$914	0xa2d7b7…
05-28 21:58:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,024	15¢	$604	0x5237f2…
05-28 21:53:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	749	15¢	$112	0xa8cba1…
05-28 21:35:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	353	15¢	$53	0xf630df…
05-28 20:52:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	15¢	$15	0x4d2b12…
05-28 20:51:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0xc2573d…
05-28 20:14:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	524	15¢	$79	0x8850be…
05-28 20:13:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	174	15¢	$26	0xf8af02…
05-28 19:39:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x1268b8…
05-28 19:17:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	15¢	$9	0x097d3e…
05-28 19:16:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xb41408…
05-28 18:23:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xa272a2…
05-28 17:46:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	294	15¢	$44	0x18e123…
05-28 17:20:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	235	15¢	$35	0x8a139a…
05-28 17:18:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0xc60786…
05-28 16:16:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x7705fd…
05-28 16:11:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x05716c…
05-28 15:51:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,700	15¢	$555	0x4870bb…
05-28 15:29:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0xea5c55…
05-28 14:39:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xb655c8…
05-28 14:38:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x46804b…
05-28 13:37:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	362	15¢	$54	0x10a199…
05-28 12:48:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x67522b…
05-28 12:22:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x982b4a…
05-28 12:21:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0x3bef0b…
05-28 11:33:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x618827…
05-28 11:25:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$1	0x5eddae…
05-28 11:11:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,336	15¢	$200	0x5f6938…
05-28 11:05:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,056	15¢	$308	0xf17c52…
05-28 10:59:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xb081b3…
05-28 10:30:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x7102f3…
05-28 10:25:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x9f5d2e…
05-28 09:39:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x178fbb…
05-28 08:53:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,882	15¢	$282	0x22bd30…
05-28 08:20:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xc68775…
05-28 08:04:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0xee24fe…
05-28 07:43:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	741	15¢	$111	0xfb58bb…
05-28 07:16:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	136	15¢	$20	0x030ff7…
05-28 06:45:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	15¢	$4	0xbd3859…
05-28 06:05:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xe47e7a…
05-28 05:57:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	15¢	$5	0x6f6397…
05-28 04:36:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	96	15¢	$14	0xc16713…
05-28 04:15:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xa203fd…
05-28 04:01:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x464e16…
05-28 03:56:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xfcca58…
05-28 03:56:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x70450d…
05-28 02:46:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xf3914b…
05-28 01:55:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xbef875…
05-28 01:32:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	15¢	$24	0x0aa32b…
05-28 01:28:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	39	15¢	$6	0xa0282c…
05-28 00:47:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	345	15¢	$52	0x6858d3…
05-28 00:30:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe6a9d3…
05-27 21:18:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xda581c…
05-27 21:08:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x4748c2…
05-27 20:02:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb1551d…
05-27 19:59:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x8cf2df…