Gullible-Angel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$188

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

2,176

Trades

5,672

lifetime

Volume

$20.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$121

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 10-28 00:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 222 days

Categories

Other

64% 48% -$241

Politics

26% 54% +$86

Tech

7% 45% -$30

Sports

2% 37% -$9

Crypto

1% 58% -$1

Pop-Culture

1% 57% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	+30	$8	40¢	$12	+$4	06-05 04:52
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	+50	$12	20¢	$10	-$1	06-09 01:49
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	+50	$6	15¢	$7	+$2	06-24 22:30
Blue wave in 2026?	No	+48	$8	14¢	$6	-$2	06-13 20:55
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	No	+15	$4	42¢	$6	+$2	05-20 06:44
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	No	+50	$7	11¢	$5	-$2	07-13 14:17
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-5	-$3	100¢	$-5	-$2	05-02 16:48
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	-5	-$4	97¢	$-5	-$1	05-28 20:37
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	+50	$6	9¢	$4	-$2	07-14 01:47
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	No	+50	$8	8¢	$4	-$4	07-06 10:11
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+4	$0	90¢	$4	+$4	08-12 01:37
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	+4	$1	94¢	$4	+$3	05-21 23:33
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	+4	$0	92¢	$4	+$3	05-05 19:25
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+10	$3	30¢	$3	$0	10-21 22:27
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	+10	-$5	30¢	$3	+$8	08-17 10:16
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	+10	$3	29¢	$3	+$0	10-26 04:56
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+15	$2	20¢	$3	+$0	05-23 20:53
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	+10	$3	29¢	$3	$0	07-28 17:39
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	+50	$6	6¢	$3	-$3	06-08 05:25
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+18	$5	15¢	$3	-$2	07-20 07:44
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$2	27¢	$3	+$0	09-27 12:55
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+10	$3	26¢	$3	$0	09-18 23:58
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	+10	$3	25¢	$3	$0	09-17 11:19
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	+10	$3	24¢	$2	-$1	10-08 21:10
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	+10	$2	23¢	$2	$0	08-15 00:04
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	+50	$5	4¢	$2	-$2	07-04 05:57
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+10	$3	22¢	$2	-$1	10-10 14:13
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	+10	$3	20¢	$2	-$1	09-22 10:56
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	No	+10	$3	20¢	$2	-$1	08-15 08:08
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+10	$3	20¢	$2	-$1	09-21 13:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	11	$113	180	180	+0	Yes	+$8	07-13 07:49
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	4	$76	100	100	+0	open	—	07-10 10:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	5	$73	100	100	+0	No	+$16	07-07 21:32
will ukraine re enter maliivka by december 31	4	$72	100	100	+0	Yes	+$16	07-04 05:54
will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	5	$71	100	100	+0	No	+$16	06-25 11:23
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	6	$67	59	59	+0	No	+$38	06-22 14:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	6	$66	88	88	+0	Yes	+$14	06-14 12:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	6	$64	90	90	+0	Yes	+$14	09-17 14:25
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	6	$61	80	80	+0	Yes	+$13	06-11 13:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$60	110	110	+0	Yes	+$18	07-23 12:51
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	5	$60	100	100	+0	Yes	+$10	06-22 11:04
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	6	$55	100	100	+0	Yes	+$16	08-15 11:27
will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	8	$54	108	108	+0	open	—	09-12 15:34
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	4	$52	69	69	+0	No	+$11	07-13 14:16
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	3	$51	100	50	+50	Yes	-$7	06-27 11:04
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	7	$50	80	80	+0	No	+$13	06-12 21:26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	4	$49	65	65	+0	Yes	+$10	06-10 22:53
will the us lift direct iran ofac sanctions by june 30 2026	4	$49	100	100	+0	Yes	-$3	06-22 13:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$48	90	90	+0	open	—	07-06 10:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	5	$48	65	65	+0	Yes	+$10	06-14 12:41
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	6	$48	65	65	+0	No	+$10	09-11 02:44
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	4	$47	80	80	+0	open	—	07-07 17:43
iran closes its airspace by june 15	4	$46	65	65	+0	Yes	+$10	06-07 19:48
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$46	65	65	+0	Yes	+$10	06-07 19:51
will jp morgan jpm q2 investment banking fees be above 3pt0b	6	$45	60	60	+0	Yes	+$10	06-25 12:39
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	9	$45	72	65	+7	Yes	+$8	06-23 19:30
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$45	67	66	+1	No	+$11	06-12 00:07
will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	4	$45	100	100	+0	Yes	-$4	06-09 02:05
will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	4	$44	100	50	+50	Yes	-$7	06-24 03:10
will usd reach 1pt8m iranian rials by june 30	6	$43	69	69	+0	No	+$11	06-12 22:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 00:34:45	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xe903c9…
10-28 00:26:30	Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	No	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x74a4ba…
10-27 23:49:41	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x8fb097…
10-27 22:52:26	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x2c4bb5…
10-27 22:12:47	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x12ddbc…
10-27 22:04:15	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x6973bc…
10-27 21:31:44	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x5fe076…
10-27 20:01:17	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x562b91…
10-27 20:00:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x1a2f7e…
10-27 16:47:45	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0x9d73fc…
10-27 16:23:50	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xa11752…
10-27 15:46:54	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0xc80094…
10-27 14:08:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xb33cc6…
10-27 13:10:54	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xd8a003…
10-27 12:06:47	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x6b980a…
10-27 10:13:18	Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x390652…
10-27 10:10:56	Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x533a11…
10-27 06:47:51	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xe310ae…
10-27 02:27:54	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xd24a85…
10-27 01:55:09	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x21a21c…
10-27 01:14:53	Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x281c89…
10-27 00:26:54	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x282456…
10-27 00:06:15	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x81e819…
10-26 20:31:06	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xabf4da…
10-26 19:21:20	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x7642fe…
10-26 16:02:06	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xd4cd9c…
10-26 15:35:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x0bc131…
10-26 15:08:02	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xaf6ffd…
10-26 14:27:11	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x6d8e98…
10-26 13:19:15	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x8a325c…
10-26 12:41:56	Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2026 NFC West?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x84f3bd…
10-26 12:20:03	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x44ca8e…
10-26 11:29:05	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xdd06aa…
10-26 10:37:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x5033e5…
10-26 05:49:48	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22.5M and $24M?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xf4214d…
10-26 04:56:18	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xef4719…
10-26 00:43:18	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xcebca4…
10-26 00:08:02	Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xa90076…
10-25 22:46:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x5300c9…
10-25 22:34:02	Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xa34034…
10-25 22:34:00	Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xaec78a…
10-25 22:30:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x6cbbf9…
10-25 22:25:33	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x292400…
10-25 21:58:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x13a3ca…
10-25 21:00:30	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x4d5097…
10-25 18:32:08	Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe203f4…
10-25 18:13:02	Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x4645b4…
10-25 18:06:32	Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x32a218…
10-25 17:17:09	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xa3882e…
10-25 17:15:24	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22.5M and $24M?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x118d1f…
10-25 15:41:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x3f8edc…
10-25 11:58:17	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xacf04f…
10-25 11:58:17	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x1b2f66…
10-25 10:51:08	Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xacd7db…
10-25 10:12:33	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x613aa4…
10-25 10:02:35	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x63c2cf…
10-25 09:38:27	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc80dbf…
10-25 07:34:44	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xd9a1f6…
10-25 02:58:45	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x98bc98…
10-25 00:29:05	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xd8f5c2…
10-24 16:37:05	Will Matt Damon be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x588ef9…
10-24 14:02:54	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x49433b…
10-24 10:45:54	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	No	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xf45270…
10-24 10:30:38	Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x1a4507…
10-24 09:08:56	Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	No	SELL	39	37¢	$14	0x554094…
10-24 03:28:39	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0xce6a74…
10-23 23:38:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x1e8a56…
10-23 23:13:09	Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfc435f…
10-23 22:18:23	Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x659dc0…
10-23 20:56:23	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x135ae7…
10-23 20:25:51	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xeb7ff5…
10-23 17:04:45	Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xc2d6dd…
10-23 16:51:20	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xe83195…
10-23 16:13:23	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x0e79cb…
10-23 11:11:42	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x922ab5…
10-22 23:29:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xd4db1a…
10-22 20:32:27	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x0e0262…
10-22 15:05:15	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x5198e3…
10-22 13:07:08	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xc57ccb…
10-22 12:55:56	Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x4a28e2…
10-22 12:02:11	Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	25	42¢	$11	0x515f48…
10-22 10:47:48	Will the Republican Party win the CO-05 House seat?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x729281…
10-22 08:34:44	Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x42befe…
10-22 05:19:57	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x04417e…
10-22 04:30:39	Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xf6d8bd…
10-22 00:20:14	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94?	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xbc8783…
10-22 00:14:56	Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?	No	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x7ba7de…
10-22 00:14:23	Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?	No	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xdd1f07…
10-21 22:27:11	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4c460f…
10-21 22:15:27	Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x7f7e1a…
10-21 20:24:59	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4c12f1…
10-21 20:09:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x387418…
10-21 19:22:18	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x2776b5…
10-21 17:36:48	Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x71f6f5…
10-21 14:51:08	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x9a4f3a…
10-21 12:25:38	Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xaf9132…
10-21 10:23:18	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x360d40…
10-21 10:20:45	Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x69cc86…
10-21 10:19:39	Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xd5be45…
10-21 08:52:08	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	No	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0xdeb659…