Realized P&L
-$0
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
122
Trades
3,818
lifetime
Volume
$3.68K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$3
13 positions
First seen
2026-06-16
last 09-30 08:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Politics
51% 11% -$5
Other
36% 22% +$9
Sports
8% 5% -$4
Tech
3% 50% +$2
Crypto
2% 0% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? No +8 $4 29¢ $2 -$2 08-06 20:20
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +1 -$2 67¢ $1 +$3 09-30 08:33
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $0 3¢ $0 $0 06-20 23:21
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +4 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 06-19 03:58
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $0 1¢ $0 $0 09-08 03:56
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No +0 $1 22¢ $0 -$1 08-14 05:14
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 Yes +0 $1 14¢ $0 -$1 08-12 00:04
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes +0 $1 12¢ $0 -$1 08-07 16:14
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $1 12¢ $0 -$1 06-18 11:51
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 5¢ $0 $0 06-17 08:57
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +0 -$13 2¢ $0 +$13 09-22 17:21
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes +0 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 07-08 22:27
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +0 $0 0¢ $0 $0 07-30 14:20