Carefree-Dump — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

98.0%

Resolved

152

Trades

185

lifetime

Volume

$4.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$122

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-27 21:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

37% 100% +$15

Crypto

30% 97% -$21

Politics

29% 100% +$23

Sports

3% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+121	$105	88¢	$107	+$2	10-22 13:27
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+17	$15	91¢	$15	+$0	10-27 21:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$273	201	83	+118	No	+$9	09-30 17:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	+$1	09-08 01:21
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$229	116	116	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$215	111	111	+0	No	+$0	08-25 14:17
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$141	142	0	+142	Yes	+$1	06-26 06:39
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$138	70	70	+0	No	+$2	09-01 06:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	2	$130	65	65	+0	No	+$0	10-16 03:35
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$123	124	0	+124	No	+$0	06-27 17:47
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$122	124	0	+124	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$121	121	0	+121	No	+$1	09-15 13:27
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$119	126	0	+126	No	+$7	10-03 23:52
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$110	111	0	+111	Yes	+$0	08-19 20:50
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$110	111	0	+111	No	+$1	08-17 06:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	1	$109	112	0	+112	No	+$3	08-13 20:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$108	109	0	+109	No	+$1	08-11 22:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$108	108	0	+108	No	+$0	08-06 13:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$107	108	0	+108	No	+$1	08-10 09:55
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$106	108	0	+108	Yes	+$1	08-04 22:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$106	107	0	+107	No	+$0	05-31 17:52
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$106	107	0	+107	Yes	+$1	05-29 06:10
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$105	121	0	+121	open	—	10-22 13:27
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$103	106	0	+106	Yes	+$3	05-25 19:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$102	104	0	+104	No	+$2	05-20 03:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$102	103	0	+103	No	+$0	05-15 06:38
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$97	102	0	+102	Yes	+$5	05-14 18:35
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$89	55	55	+0	No	+$0	10-18 01:37
will ethereum reach 3100 in august 2026	2	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:18
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$85	86	86	+0	No	-$32	07-31 13:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	05-12 10:50
will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	2	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	09-29 11:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0xcffda4…
10-22 13:27:48	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	121	87¢	$105	0x24f95d…
10-18 01:37:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	55	81¢	$45	0xd362f0…
10-16 03:35:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x6628d9…
10-15 19:37:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x3e5570…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	55	81¢	$44	0xc76c91…
10-13 04:34:38	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x9b0781…
10-12 22:03:38	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x396813…
10-09 15:55:00	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x299c97…
10-09 09:11:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe0dea4…
10-09 01:13:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5c8d1f…
10-05 06:21:31	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x332491…
10-03 23:52:13	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	126	95¢	$119	0x4368d5…
09-30 23:05:02	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9d6ccb…
09-30 17:24:35	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0x2aeebd…
09-29 20:07:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0xc4ad14…
09-29 11:03:45	will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x0da803…
09-28 01:21:51	will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x78202e…
09-25 16:32:29	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	83	89¢	$74	0xbcaeb0…
09-25 07:59:32	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xffa0f6…
09-22 11:40:36	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4ab9b0…
09-18 22:02:49	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x10325e…
09-15 13:27:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$121	0x16ab61…
09-11 12:07:55	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x06c63d…
09-10 14:39:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	124	98¢	$122	0x0fdf9b…
09-10 01:21:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	116	99¢	$114	0x32e831…
09-10 00:13:21	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	116	99¢	$114	0xdd9bb0…
09-08 01:21:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x426205…
09-04 16:24:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0xea1ee9…
09-01 06:58:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x581de5…
09-01 03:18:27	will ethereum reach 3100 in august 2026	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x86a9cb…
08-27 18:13:06	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	70	96¢	$68	0x0ad15a…
08-26 16:24:22	will ethereum reach 3100 in august 2026	No	BUY	43	100¢	$42	0xb9c29e…
08-25 14:17:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	97¢	$108	0x69a01a…
08-25 07:12:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	96¢	$69	0x1f342f…
08-24 15:38:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x0f4609…
08-20 19:12:37	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa4c047…
08-19 20:50:24	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0xeb8120…
08-17 06:45:33	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xecf255…
08-16 23:25:36	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xad8b35…
08-13 20:02:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	BUY	112	97¢	$109	0x224ec2…
08-11 22:40:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0xf22723…
08-10 09:55:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x0e898e…
08-08 18:25:43	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa40e2d…
08-06 13:47:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xba0fce…
08-04 22:52:45	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	108	99¢	$106	0x62d6b7…
08-04 21:30:15	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x190411…
08-03 19:07:12	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x970e5f…
07-31 18:50:29	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x88130b…
07-31 13:49:15	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	86	31¢	$27	0x7b19c9…
07-31 11:45:51	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1d6910…
07-28 16:16:01	will xagusd reach 66 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4f6ecb…
07-28 12:54:41	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xf8ec1f…
07-28 12:45:32	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x8fa892…
07-27 13:32:01	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xf4a12d…
07-27 09:33:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdebfca…
07-25 21:57:13	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8f8537…
07-25 13:22:09	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x12a6ef…
07-24 07:22:57	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	86	68¢	$58	0x9c9a26…
07-22 04:28:03	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0xe5b07e…
07-21 17:46:07	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb53a7…
07-20 23:25:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xef7998…
07-19 15:58:40	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x503789…
07-19 14:44:00	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0e1822…
07-17 23:20:27	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7670e5…
07-17 08:20:24	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xccacb8…
07-17 05:21:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc4b8ec…
07-14 14:20:11	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9d2224…
07-06 08:30:52	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd77ae0…
06-29 19:18:47	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x423501…
06-29 09:52:29	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9d1974…
06-29 05:37:28	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x884fc0…
06-28 21:19:59	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x54dae2…
06-28 20:54:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xb80c17…
06-27 17:47:07	Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x4284af…
06-26 06:39:05	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x18928f…
06-26 04:32:59	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	141	99¢	$140	0x944387…
06-05 00:35:46	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0b9c67…
05-31 22:52:36	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x363284…
05-31 17:52:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$106	0x696e90…
05-30 09:23:37	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3f2890…
05-29 06:16:39	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x504b95…
05-29 06:10:05	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x4a9885…
05-25 19:41:27	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	106	97¢	$103	0x3b8b29…
05-20 11:52:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf65ca7…
05-20 03:32:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0x649cce…
05-16 03:33:44	Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa34a0b…
05-15 06:38:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0x9cd76c…
05-14 18:35:32	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	102	95¢	$97	0xa952f5…
05-12 10:50:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x37722c…
05-10 08:14:25	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbf1592…
05-10 04:26:50	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x642ca1…
05-09 12:53:40	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd57ebd…
05-09 08:36:04	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x14ef62…
05-09 08:22:41	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x755389…
05-09 07:05:06	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x36db94…
05-09 00:24:24	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf63852…
05-06 10:52:20	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6b3a32…
05-06 10:00:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x0ea035…
05-06 09:52:24	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x363f83…