Favorable-Larch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved

3,385

Trades

5,077

lifetime

Volume

$5.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 10-29 23:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 90% +$1

Politics

1% 50% +$1

Other

0% 57% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	6	$30	24	24	+0	open	—	06-04 16:06
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	4	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 16:05
ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	6	$12	15	15	+0	open	—	10-11 08:40
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$7	6	6	+0	Yes	+$5	02-28 07:44
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$5	6	6	+0	Yes	-$4	02-28 06:23
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	10-11 08:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	10-23 10:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$3	4	4	+0	open	—	10-11 08:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 16:25 UTC	3	$3	2	1	+1	Down	+$0	03-12 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 02:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 14:05 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	03-23 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 16:20 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	03-23 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 17:45 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	03-13 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 05:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 06:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:35 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	03-06 13:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 15:35 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	03-03 15:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 14:10 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	03-14 14:15
highest temperature in miami on march 14 2026 82 83f	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	03-14 16:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 01:00 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	03-05 01:05
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	2	$3	8	8	+0	open	—	06-04 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 02:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 06:20 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	03-15 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	2	$2	2	1	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:55 UTC	2	$2	2	1	+0	Down	+$1	03-18 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 03:05 UTC	2	$2	2	1	+0	Down	+$1	03-17 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$2	2	1	+0	Up	+$1	10-23 02:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 14:40 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	03-11 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	10-23 07:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 22:20 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Down	+$0	03-20 22:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 23:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd05e1d…
10-29 22:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe1f88e…
10-29 21:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x791530…
10-29 21:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xce9bc5…
10-29 20:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x7f9273…
10-29 20:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbfd998…
10-29 19:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x69e3e2…
10-29 17:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xcb95ad…
10-29 14:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xad6ec9…
10-29 12:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xdf4d1f…
10-29 12:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf489bc…
10-29 10:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf25bb9…
10-29 10:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa88d40…
10-29 09:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf45097…
10-29 09:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x85a8c6…
10-29 09:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x05572e…
10-29 08:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb8cdb8…
10-29 08:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x290d63…
10-29 07:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x06167e…
10-29 07:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd5960f…
10-29 05:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xcf4a18…
10-29 05:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2ac19f…
10-29 03:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xfe9456…
10-29 03:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa24646…
10-29 02:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf88cd7…
10-29 02:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9b34e5…
10-29 01:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x17afa9…
10-29 00:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcfdd62…
10-28 23:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x46a9fe…
10-28 23:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x37a8e2…
10-28 22:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x10e058…
10-28 19:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x93c86f…
10-28 18:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x778cb8…
10-28 18:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xdbac53…
10-28 15:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xca0cf5…
10-28 14:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x28fc5d…
10-28 13:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d5b0d…
10-28 12:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x0ae19a…
10-28 11:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa36a28…
10-28 11:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfe5133…
10-28 11:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc205ef…
10-28 10:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa297e2…
10-28 09:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x86250a…
10-28 09:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2cc48b…
10-28 09:19:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-28 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb4b39a…
10-28 08:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x722891…
10-28 08:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x253322…
10-28 08:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6df9f1…
10-28 07:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xad04f8…
10-28 07:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x936c8f…
10-28 07:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4b74b9…
10-28 06:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2e9f82…
10-28 05:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x63d5b7…
10-28 05:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4255e9…
10-28 05:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf8360b…
10-28 04:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x570883…
10-28 02:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x2bc5e6…
10-28 02:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb700ad…
10-28 02:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe9213d…
10-28 02:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x4beafd…
10-28 00:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9d9ba0…
10-26 13:41:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x05090e…
10-26 07:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x295522…
10-26 06:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3e928c…
10-26 05:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0e2e81…
10-26 02:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x2211dd…
10-23 12:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xbce5ea…
10-23 11:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb31886…
10-23 11:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x15eef0…
10-23 10:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9d3438…
10-23 10:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe4dbec…
10-23 10:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xea0841…
10-23 10:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x54a7d8…
10-23 10:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x18ac09…
10-23 10:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x17e7dd…
10-23 10:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd7cddc…
10-23 09:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x78a0d2…
10-23 09:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9b0c5b…
10-23 09:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x984c40…
10-23 09:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb09233…
10-23 09:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe90d28…
10-23 09:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9314eb…
10-23 09:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xfd50cd…
10-23 09:29:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-23 09:25 UTC	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe7bdea…
10-23 09:27:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-23 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe92f8c…
10-23 09:19:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-23 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaa2be3…
10-23 09:17:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-23 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd8e6f8…
10-23 09:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0c0da6…
10-23 09:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x057f6b…
10-23 08:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xeeff35…
10-23 08:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x66e172…
10-23 08:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9b25af…
10-23 08:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6ef2a2…
10-23 08:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x00b915…
10-23 08:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x5ad95a…
10-23 08:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x522677…
10-23 08:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc53f46…
10-23 08:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x877ebf…
10-23 08:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3ea894…
10-23 08:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6f3e02…