Ignorant-Vanadyl — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$326

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

65.1%

Resolved

1,653

Trades

8,669

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$56

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 14:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 254 days

Categories

Other

74% 57% -$113

Crypto

11% 84% -$36

Sports

9% 55% -$126

Politics

6% 56% -$54

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	+12	$11	96¢	$12	+$1	07-23 00:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+6	$5	95¢	$6	+$0	10-21 05:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	10-28 14:15
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+7	$4	68¢	$5	+$0	10-17 06:34
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+5	$5	92¢	$5	$0	10-21 04:00
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+14	$5	32¢	$5	$0	10-17 06:35
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+7	$4	63¢	$4	+$0	10-20 09:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	+4	$4	98¢	$4	+$1	10-27 16:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	+3	$2	92¢	$3	+$0	10-28 15:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	No	+2	$2	99¢	$2	+$0	10-24 10:08
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+7	$2	33¢	$2	+$0	10-20 09:06
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+2	$2	86¢	$2	$0	10-08 07:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	+2	$2	43¢	$1	-$1	10-26 06:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-2	-$1	20¢	$-0	+$0	05-05 23:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	50	$118	71	68	+3	Yes	-$4	03-21 22:23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	54	$102	73	61	+12	Yes	-$3	06-30 12:48
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	71	$99	90	59	+31	No	+$14	07-21 15:27
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 280 299	102	$97	72	57	+15	No	+$7	03-27 07:22
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	20	$87	60	60	+0	No	-$6	07-07 17:43
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	26	$86	53	53	+0	No	+$2	03-12 23:38
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	46	$84	52	45	+7	No	+$1	03-21 11:48
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-07-26?	25	$79	86	86	+0	No	-$4	07-26 20:53
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	26	$78	42	42	+0	Yes	+$1	03-12 23:38
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	63	$77	47	47	+0	No	+$6	07-13 17:04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	38	$76	75	43	+32	Yes	-$11	06-26 09:54
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 240 259	42	$75	47	41	+6	No	+$7	03-31 16:44
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 380 399	81	$74	51	42	+10	No	+$3	03-24 07:11
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	26	$72	63	38	+25	No	+$12	07-17 08:44
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	18	$66	63	23	+40	Yes	-$11	05-12 14:33
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	20	$66	68	0	+68	No	+$2	07-04 16:50
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	22	$63	47	32	+15	No	+$6	06-26 13:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	30	$62	38	38	+0	No	+$3	07-20 15:09
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	33	$60	35	35	+0	No	+$6	07-13 09:12
usc psg av 2026 08 12 btts	15	$59	57	57	+0	Yes	$0	08-12 19:27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	44	$58	46	34	+12	No	+$5	06-09 03:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	30	$58	68	68	+0	Yes	-$1	03-02 23:51
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-07?	40	$58	86	86	+0	Yes	+$16	09-07 21:21
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	15	$58	35	35	+0	Yes	+$0	08-27 19:44
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	23	$53	39	23	+16	No	+$6	06-29 11:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	30	$52	37	29	+8	No	+$7	06-29 17:43
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	18	$51	81	0	+81	Yes	-$51	07-10 13:33
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	33	$51	49	4	+45	No	+$2	02-28 06:50
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	30	$51	51	23	+28	No	+$9	06-12 06:58
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-07-31?	26	$50	39	39	+0	No	+$1	07-31 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:38:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x8cdd56…
10-28 14:51:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb06a0b…
10-28 14:19:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x65ebcb…
10-28 14:18:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x59598b…
10-28 14:15:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x53f315…
10-28 13:40:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x92c682…
10-28 12:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x070d8f…
10-28 10:51:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe89e15…
10-28 10:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x775705…
10-28 10:46:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2f7ac4…
10-28 10:46:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x584b8f…
10-28 10:05:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbac38c…
10-28 10:00:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd12a10…
10-28 09:56:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe84cf9…
10-28 09:50:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7ea41a…
10-28 09:37:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5d4ff7…
10-28 09:27:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfc2696…
10-28 09:20:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5bb337…
10-28 08:48:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0fa2a0…
10-28 08:26:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x73144b…
10-28 07:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x84fc76…
10-28 07:52:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2f1ed6…
10-28 07:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x3620b9…
10-28 07:49:25	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2d4a3b…
10-28 07:46:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd6d055…
10-28 07:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x9221df…
10-28 06:55:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$0	0xb64db2…
10-28 05:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x132916…
10-28 01:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x84117a…
10-28 01:18:51	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x0a5983…
10-28 01:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x429fd4…
10-27 19:24:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6a1b4e…
10-27 18:51:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x982785…
10-27 18:39:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x028b35…
10-27 18:11:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x7d261f…
10-27 18:06:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x0dcd1d…
10-27 18:01:51	Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x269043…
10-27 17:22:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xd46d71…
10-27 17:21:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xc1f373…
10-27 17:19:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xbe7407…
10-27 17:19:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd69bbd…
10-27 17:11:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xf9f32e…
10-27 17:08:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xb081d6…
10-27 16:55:12	Spread: Lions (-2.5)	Lions	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x15c744…
10-27 16:48:03	Oxford City vs. Merthyr Town: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x16eeb2…
10-27 16:47:29	Oxford City vs. Merthyr Town: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x438ce2…
10-27 16:46:48	Oxford City vs. Merthyr Town: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xfc2c48…
10-27 16:33:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x95350d…
10-27 16:17:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa0b239…
10-27 16:17:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x17ab31…
10-27 16:17:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xca45d0…
10-27 15:56:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x985a9d…
10-27 15:55:56	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x1270c2…
10-27 15:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xf3ec1a…
10-27 15:41:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0xb730bc…
10-27 15:37:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x71b0f2…
10-27 15:31:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xe599de…
10-27 15:31:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xe3d82e…
10-27 15:30:56	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x503e69…
10-27 15:16:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x96d192…
10-27 14:58:45	Altrincham FC vs. Kidderminster Harriers FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xc2a1c8…
10-27 14:58:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd12e23…
10-27 14:50:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x2c691f…
10-27 14:42:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x8d3705…
10-27 14:36:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x4f3059…
10-27 14:28:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xbde62d…
10-27 14:18:05	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x0f7c27…
10-27 12:58:21	wta shi yastrem 2026 10 27	Dayana Yastremska	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x866ad6…
10-27 12:56:47	Morecambe FC vs. Darlington FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x07a62d…
10-27 12:16:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x913c72…
10-27 11:50:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x480d3d…
10-27 10:57:59	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x54b01e…
10-27 10:38:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x397e49…
10-27 10:16:36	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x6b24e6…
10-27 10:13:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x93af45…
10-27 10:01:14	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x4bce72…
10-27 09:42:39	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x83b16b…
10-27 09:25:12	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x8809af…
10-27 09:24:39	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xb72c30…
10-27 09:16:23	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf90662…
10-27 09:15:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x8bf2e1…
10-27 09:09:50	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x5810ab…
10-27 09:09:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xea3617…
10-27 06:37:17	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xec0387…
10-27 06:32:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xcd82fc…
10-27 05:44:51	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0xf09082…
10-27 05:43:42	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x7bc4c8…
10-27 01:29:00	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$0	0xdb2dc5…
10-27 01:28:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$0	0xd3e7bd…
10-26 23:48:42	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0xd13103…
10-26 20:31:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x855a62…
10-26 20:04:27	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xc70adf…
10-26 19:23:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xf35ad7…
10-26 18:20:45	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x0dc42f…
10-26 18:07:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	66¢	$0	0xa3f0e5…
10-26 17:55:32	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$0	0xcecd92…
10-26 17:53:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$0	0x3af55f…
10-26 17:50:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	71¢	$0	0x723228…
10-26 16:37:41	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe7deae…
10-26 16:11:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$0	0x669042…