Careless-Implementation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$566

Unrealized P&L

-$215

Hit rate

34.2%

Resolved

162

Trades

598

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$38

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 09-18 21:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

46% 22% +$646

Politics

32% 16% -$5

Sports

8% 5% -$34

Tech

8% 29% +$1

Crypto

6% 20% -$42

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+2,240	$189	1¢	$28	-$161	08-27 17:48
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+232	$58	4¢	$9	-$49	07-02 09:46
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	+222	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	06-05 14:15
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+0	$3	1¢	$0	-$3	08-07 17:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	2	$798	600	600	+0	Yes	+$390	07-03 19:57
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$649	330	330	+0	Yes	+$0	04-16 06:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$572	300	300	+0	No	-$1	05-04 15:05
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$548	1,931	1,931	+0	Yes	-$12	06-24 06:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$492	250	250	+0	No	$0	04-16 08:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$479	240	240	+0	No	$0	05-11 10:18
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$436	220	220	+0	No	$0	04-16 04:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$394	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-03 14:11
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$372	600	0	+600	Yes	+$228	07-07 15:45
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	1	$330	500	0	+500	Yes	+$170	06-20 13:06
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	1	$322	620	0	+620	Yes	+$298	06-27 05:55
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$312	200	200	+0	Yes	+$4	03-22 18:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$311	196	196	+0	Yes	$0	05-16 12:36
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$300	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-24 09:44
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	1	$270	530	0	+530	Yes	+$260	06-24 14:50
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	1	$246	600	0	+600	No	-$246	07-03 08:22
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$242	550	0	+550	Yes	+$308	06-30 06:15
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$208	581	581	+0	No	+$8	07-07 09:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	7	$207	106	106	+0	No	+$0	05-12 10:18
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	3	$200	293	293	+0	Yes	$0	08-19 16:45
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	6	$198	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-17 06:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3	$190	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-16 09:57
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	6	$189	2,240	0	+2,240	open	—	08-27 17:48
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	3	$189	97	97	+0	open	—	05-16 14:28
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	1	$187	550	0	+550	No	-$187	06-30 06:17
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$187	100	100	+0	Yes	-$5	05-04 16:24
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	1	$186	620	0	+620	No	-$186	06-27 05:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$182	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-16 11:43
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	2	$174	100	100	+0	No	-$2	05-22 05:53
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	1	$150	600	0	+600	No	-$150	07-07 15:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 21:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x68d6a5…
09-18 21:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x84cfef…
09-18 21:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x85f35d…
09-18 21:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xfaa53f…
09-18 21:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xaceb83…
09-18 21:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xa7fd72…
09-18 21:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x7d4de3…
09-18 21:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xa8d465…
09-18 21:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf20c5e…
09-18 21:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	24	34¢	$8	0x03f4f8…
09-18 21:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x91e779…
09-18 21:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xc37b85…
09-18 21:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xa8f197…
09-18 21:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xed81ad…
09-18 21:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x083a74…
09-18 21:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x4b4d72…
09-18 21:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x4fb722…
09-18 21:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xe54cab…
09-18 21:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	32	39¢	$12	0x73fe64…
09-18 20:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x430ef6…
09-18 20:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x24dc9d…
09-18 20:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd5ed06…
09-18 20:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3ab7b6…
09-18 20:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x9dd7c0…
09-18 20:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x30b221…
09-18 20:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x59c82c…
09-18 20:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x02dd42…
09-18 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb1171b…
09-18 20:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x74a1a9…
09-18 20:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x6a0280…
09-18 20:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x251311…
09-18 20:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb880a0…
09-18 20:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xa3daa8…
09-18 20:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xdcd680…
09-18 20:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x1e693f…
09-18 20:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x7fba60…
09-18 20:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9a3b0b…
09-18 20:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x82753d…
09-18 20:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x3b3ac9…
09-18 20:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xccb293…
09-18 20:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x936753…
09-18 20:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x7ea709…
09-18 20:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4839ac…
09-18 20:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	29	42¢	$12	0xf4af98…
09-18 20:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xaf1a27…
09-18 20:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x144d12…
09-18 20:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0fc717…
09-18 20:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbc1262…
09-18 20:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb92bdd…
09-17 06:53:43	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 18?	No	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xda62a0…
09-17 06:51:27	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 18?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xb5fbe7…
09-17 06:24:48	will the announcers say roughing the passer during the lions vs bills game 20260918	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xc0c5b0…
09-17 06:20:25	will the announcers say roughing the passer during the lions vs bills game 20260918	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xd450b6…
09-09 05:20:36	where will it rain on september 9 2026 seattle wa	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xbaf03f…
09-09 05:17:51	where will it rain on september 9 2026 seattle wa	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x373063…
09-03 22:35:15	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September?	No	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x0b23a8…
09-03 22:35:12	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September?	No	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x3cb2f1…
09-02 11:00:10	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-02 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x1023f4…
09-02 10:57:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-02 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x6226f1…
09-02 10:56:48	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-02 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x68ff4c…
09-02 10:46:57	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-02 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x9c7a84…
08-27 17:48:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xe09263…
08-27 17:48:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x72c398…
08-27 17:48:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	396	8¢	$32	0x3ea6b6…
08-27 17:48:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	99	8¢	$8	0x086ad9…
08-27 16:49:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,004	8¢	$80	0x9e6bff…
08-27 12:42:16	will trump say barack hussein obama in september 20260930	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0xdb8eed…
08-19 16:45:55	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xa05a71…
08-19 16:42:57	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	286	34¢	$97	0x1fedc4…
08-19 16:17:12	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	293	34¢	$100	0x3f77ba…
08-19 12:41:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xa53011…
08-19 12:41:13	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x8c2599…
08-19 12:41:03	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xee6902…
08-19 12:31:01	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x9b52d3…
08-19 12:12:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xf6b8b1…
08-19 12:10:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x50cc06…
08-19 11:56:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x1190df…
08-19 11:53:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x68bcd6…
08-19 11:42:28	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xd8b11a…
08-19 11:40:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xe27b22…
08-19 11:40:16	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1ed724…
08-19 11:39:28	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x2c7153…
08-18 20:58:57	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x6494d6…
08-18 20:57:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x826c7b…
08-18 20:56:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf7d411…
08-18 20:33:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x450d4b…
08-18 20:32:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x46e612…
08-18 20:30:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x907b41…
08-18 20:28:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5ca735…
08-18 20:28:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xdbd7cf…
08-18 20:25:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8beae6…
08-18 20:24:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc2398f…
08-18 20:24:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xa7ddad…
08-18 20:21:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x4f067c…
08-18 20:21:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x608664…
08-18 20:21:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6a0cae…
08-18 20:20:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x5bb366…
08-18 20:20:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa3bdad…
08-18 20:18:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3fbe36…
08-18 20:17:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd52e34…