Private-Parliament — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.8%

Resolved

213

Trades

521

lifetime

Volume

$517

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-01 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Other

44% 3% -$3

Politics

28% 11% -$1

Crypto

21% 29% $0

Tech

5% 0% $0

Sports

2% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	10	$12	6	6	+0	Yes	$0	02-05 08:39
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	Yes	$0	01-14 03:13
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	04-14 03:20
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 10:12
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-18 06:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-13 06:59
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:28
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-03 06:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-12 06:58
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-26 04:20
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 07:59
bitcoin above 72k on april 21	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 03:35
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:13
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-24 07:57
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	02-20 07:28
will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-16 07:03
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 07:02
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	01-14 03:12
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-31 07:35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-11 08:03
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-23 06:09
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-01 06:47
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-04 03:33
Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-13 07:00
bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-05 06:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-01 06:59
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	03-28 06:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-29 06:11
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 07:57
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	$0	07-07 07:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 09:25:26	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x6215b4…
08-01 09:20:51	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x1f4215…
07-31 07:35:20	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x0c872f…
07-31 07:28:08	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x93f95c…
07-31 07:17:39	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x632a72…
07-31 07:11:05	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9a0c95…
07-30 08:35:14	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xebf100…
07-30 08:23:02	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf16e60…
07-30 08:18:15	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x96d51d…
07-30 08:13:41	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3a5c13…
07-29 08:19:48	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9b84ef…
07-29 08:16:59	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2b6da1…
07-29 08:13:18	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb4b748…
07-29 08:00:29	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2b0cd7…
07-28 10:18:40	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3aef95…
07-28 10:06:23	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf46e2c…
07-28 07:48:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x24a717…
07-28 07:40:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbaec9a…
07-27 06:50:57	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x426825…
07-27 06:44:18	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x864a33…
07-27 06:40:25	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5efc8a…
07-27 06:34:25	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1a8fc2…
07-25 07:57:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3aff1b…
07-25 07:51:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7ea310…
07-25 07:47:42	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa3bb00…
07-25 07:42:13	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x086320…
07-24 07:51:27	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc563a6…
07-24 07:46:21	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x728a25…
07-24 07:40:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe7a7a8…
07-24 07:27:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5c823a…
07-23 07:48:19	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbb56ee…
07-23 07:40:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x504588…
07-23 07:36:33	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x97e019…
07-23 07:28:49	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x63206b…
07-22 07:28:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x012ab3…
07-22 07:19:36	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x186591…
07-22 07:13:19	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2edd1f…
07-22 06:59:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd29ec0…
07-21 06:54:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1f6e9a…
07-21 06:49:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9b5f61…
07-21 06:45:01	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xfa7f7f…
07-21 06:35:34	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xad3193…
07-20 07:51:06	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3c23ef…
07-20 07:41:03	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xad908a…
07-20 07:35:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd63bed…
07-20 07:29:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x33837e…
07-18 07:37:18	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4faace…
07-18 07:25:18	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3faaed…
07-18 07:20:39	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x79c525…
07-18 07:13:51	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xecf932…
07-17 07:03:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x616038…
07-17 06:57:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa58f37…
07-17 06:52:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x896453…
07-17 06:43:15	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf477b7…
07-16 08:11:34	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x062ee0…
07-16 07:38:13	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3d3d85…
07-16 07:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2cbc59…
07-16 07:24:53	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe1e755…
07-15 08:00:32	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x139f29…
07-15 07:51:17	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb5cae6…
07-15 07:46:25	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x9939b5…
07-15 07:38:25	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x453cbb…
07-14 07:36:52	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc127c0…
07-14 07:28:17	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc26dd8…
07-14 07:16:44	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x5d0529…
07-14 07:04:25	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1bae51…
07-13 07:43:50	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x60c00b…
07-13 07:39:59	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf7f5be…
07-13 07:28:56	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xe61303…
07-13 07:19:28	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb8de67…
07-11 07:53:25	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x289852…
07-11 07:46:37	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x30e371…
07-11 07:38:55	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf54c7c…
07-11 07:34:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3720eb…
07-10 08:02:16	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x7ac15d…
07-10 07:51:04	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8102d6…
07-10 07:45:32	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1661aa…
07-10 07:37:07	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf8d2b4…
07-09 07:06:05	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x488189…
07-09 06:54:22	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3a7fa5…
07-09 06:49:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x95998c…
07-09 06:43:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3abfc2…
07-08 07:20:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x6be4a0…
07-08 07:10:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb3a016…
07-08 07:07:05	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x51f761…
07-08 06:58:19	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x75eb11…
07-07 07:41:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x200f28…
07-07 07:33:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4b28cc…
07-07 07:30:26	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xf669e5…
07-07 07:21:34	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6dfea5…
07-06 07:59:11	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x19b763…
07-06 07:48:40	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb2731e…
07-06 07:47:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xbe7bc9…
07-06 07:41:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc0242a…
07-04 07:03:26	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb52266…
07-04 06:56:02	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x00d929…
07-04 06:53:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x55638e…
07-04 06:49:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x0e1460…
07-03 08:44:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xcd2fc7…
07-03 08:41:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7b05d4…