Probable-Shallows — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$96

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.9%

Resolved

114

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$316

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 05-21 14:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 15% $-95

Sports

1% 67% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	2	$26	65	65	+0	Down	+$16	05-06 19:14
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	2	$15	14	14	+0	Up	+$13	05-08 04:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 08:35
Ethereum Up or Down on May 8?	3	$10	7	7	+0	Up	+$4	05-08 16:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$10	367	117	+250	Up	$-7	05-05 06:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	2	$9	8	8	+0	Up	+$7	05-05 05:40
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	4	$8	9	9	+0	Up	$-2	05-08 13:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?	2	$7	3	5	-2	Yes	+$1	05-08 16:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	2	$7	397	0	+397	Up	$-7	05-05 10:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$7	74	0	+74	Down	$-7	05-05 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	2	$7	17	0	+17	Up	$-7	05-10 13:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	1	$6	75	0	+75	Down	$-6	05-05 08:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	2	$6	283	0	+283	Up	$-6	05-05 11:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	05-08 12:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	43	0	+43	Down	$-5	05-06 15:59
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-06 19:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-05 06:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	1	$5	28	0	+28	Down	$-5	05-05 08:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$5	22	0	+22	Up	$-5	05-05 06:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	1	$5	31	0	+31	Up	+$26	05-05 09:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	Down	$-5	05-05 05:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	1	$5	217	0	+217	Up	$-5	05-05 08:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 04:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	4	$4	7	0	+7	Down	$-1	05-08 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	2	$4	9	0	+9	Down	$-2	05-10 07:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	3	$4	10	0	+10	Down	$-2	05-08 12:46
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	1	$3	46	0	+46	Up	$-3	05-06 18:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	3	$3	1,150	0	+1,150	Down	$-3	05-05 06:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$3	300	0	+300	Down	$-3	05-05 13:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	2	$3	62	0	+62	Up	$-3	05-05 10:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 14:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x472566…
05-16 06:59:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xcecea6…
05-14 09:43:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x27882f…
05-13 04:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd41474…
05-13 01:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x47bed6…
05-12 11:58:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x479139…
05-12 10:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6b2d65…
05-12 10:18:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2fc2e2…
05-12 10:18:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x25acc3…
05-12 07:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xab8dbf…
05-11 17:34:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xc32b0e…
05-11 16:28:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xc9c2de…
05-10 15:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xa6a853…
05-10 14:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x389ad3…
05-10 13:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa258b4…
05-10 13:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0d0eb0…
05-10 07:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xd4d4a0…
05-10 07:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xbb2c6e…
05-10 05:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x06319a…
05-10 04:19:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3a5239…
05-09 09:44:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa9ea9a…
05-09 09:44:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x387bb3…
05-09 08:59:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1592d1…
05-09 08:57:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x53e202…
05-08 19:59:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xf2f363…
05-08 16:48:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xff3213…
05-08 16:48:02	Ethereum Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xab36ac…
05-08 14:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x49dd5a…
05-08 14:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3aa3a6…
05-08 14:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x145424…
05-08 14:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc7f2d3…
05-08 14:44:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x64b127…
05-08 14:40:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8cb4fc…
05-08 14:40:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x57b6dc…
05-08 14:23:15	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x0c5e37…
05-08 14:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x52199d…
05-08 13:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xf4e916…
05-08 12:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2c19de…
05-08 12:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xade861…
05-08 12:16:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0xae8a36…
05-08 12:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa0ac8a…
05-08 11:04:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0x441258…
05-08 11:03:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x2b8e87…
05-08 11:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x44ce9e…
05-08 10:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1a0167…
05-08 10:50:21	Ethereum Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x95062e…
05-08 10:37:57	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x25484a…
05-08 10:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x2bdee2…
05-08 10:29:45	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x82a9b3…
05-08 10:29:10	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8e2208…
05-08 10:26:17	Solana Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1aeeef…
05-08 10:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd995de…
05-08 10:10:02	Ethereum Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x73abf8…
05-08 08:59:10	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xd6c169…
05-08 05:29:33	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x569172…
05-08 04:30:25	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x7ec28b…
05-08 04:29:54	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe280c8…
05-08 03:59:43	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xb71667…
05-08 03:29:24	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb3b75b…
05-08 02:47:16	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x085afc…
05-07 08:29:29	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x32a35c…
05-07 08:28:38	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd48628…
05-07 08:00:02	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x7dd14a…
05-07 07:14:26	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	439	0¢	$1	0x2aa5fa…
05-06 19:45:00	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd42da7…
05-06 19:29:39	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x280dcc…
05-06 19:14:52	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	65	32¢	$21	0x0ef097…
05-06 19:14:38	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0xb48050…
05-06 18:59:30	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	46	7¢	$3	0x0b7306…
05-06 18:44:29	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x66382b…
05-06 18:42:51	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2d1f0c…
05-06 18:29:19	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xcfe295…
05-06 18:14:47	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0xe3d90e…
05-06 18:14:09	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xfb8dfa…
05-06 17:29:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x156aef…
05-06 17:29:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	122	1¢	$1	0x61261f…
05-06 15:59:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x1d3c76…
05-06 14:14:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7586e2…
05-06 12:14:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x4ddce1…
05-06 12:10:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0xadbaa4…
05-06 09:56:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xcd8d5d…
05-06 09:49:56	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x043358…
05-06 09:49:18	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe2214a…
05-05 13:29:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x7c26fd…
05-05 12:57:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x509b03…
05-05 12:54:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2c8984…
05-05 12:14:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xef2346…
05-05 12:13:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6b13d7…
05-05 12:04:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x23edf8…
05-05 11:58:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x858392…
05-05 11:58:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x5ca4d0…
05-05 11:53:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa132ce…
05-05 11:40:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfb29dc…
05-05 11:34:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xeb1786…
05-05 11:29:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	358	0¢	$1	0x977930…
05-05 11:24:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbdffdb…
05-05 11:14:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x51ed48…
05-05 10:59:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x52c964…
05-05 10:59:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x13de27…
05-05 10:43:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x231354…