Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
open
Total volume
$654
$2,888 in 24h
Trades
33
Unique wallets
13
Liquidity
$2,688
Latest YES mid
26¢
Latest NO mid
74¢
End date
2026-05-12
First seen
2026-05-11
last 05-12 06:56
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+41.3¢
(top1%: 49% YES on $27
vs crowd: 8% YES on $477)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | $13 | $13 | +$1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $6 | $5 | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $17 | $422 | $405 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $13 | $14 | $1 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 4 | $12 | $400 | $388 |
| Below median | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $3 | $21 | $18 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $6 | $4 | +$3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Square-Citrus 0x2c41…57a6 | Down | +759 | $400 | $400 | 3 | 05-12 04:00 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | +44 | $13 | $13 | 7 | 05-12 06:56 |
| Deficient-Fritter 0xfbd4…f144 | Down | +35 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-12 04:54 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | +22 | $13 | $13 | 4 | 05-12 06:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x63f7…ed20 | Down | +21 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 05-12 04:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Up | +12 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 05-12 06:56 |
| Unselfish-Misreading 0x8173…68d3 | Up | +6 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-12 06:41 |
| Droopy-Calculator 0x9683…bcec | Up | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-12 05:56 |
| Yellow-Nudge 0xc5f9…d923 | Up | +6 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-11 21:28 |
| Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Up | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-12 04:25 |
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-12 05:34 |
| Distorted-Marines 0xd6c7…a6a3 | Down | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-12 05:34 |
| Distorted-Marines 0xd6c7…a6a3 | Up | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-12 05:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x6476…6df0 | Up | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-12 06:31 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 06:56:26 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0xe77757… |
| 05-12 06:56:26 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x43c6b3… |
| 05-12 06:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Up | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x0fe7ea… |
| 05-12 06:56:15 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Down | SELL | 10 | 56¢ | $6 | 0x81ecd4… |
| 05-12 06:56:15 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0x8d16b8… |
| 05-12 06:51:23 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Down | SELL | 8 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x02240e… |
| 05-12 06:41:09 | Unselfish-Misreading 0x8173…68d3 | Up | BUY | 6 | 65¢ | $4 | 0x9552ed… |
| 05-12 06:41:05 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Down | SELL | 1 | 35¢ | $0 | 0x94d452… |
| 05-12 06:31:12 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x37eb0c… |
| 05-12 06:31:07 | (anonymous) 0x6476…6df0 | Up | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x568d14… |
| 05-12 06:31:05 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | BUY | 7 | 78¢ | $5 | 0x034d48… |
| 05-12 05:56:03 | Droopy-Calculator 0x9683…bcec | Up | BUY | 6 | 80¢ | $5 | 0x648e4b… |
| 05-12 05:34:49 | Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 | Down | BUY | 5 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x1d53cb… |
| 05-12 05:34:49 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 7 | 25¢ | $2 | 0x07dbfb… |
| 05-12 05:34:39 | Distorted-Marines 0xd6c7…a6a3 | Down | BUY | 4 | 25¢ | $1 | 0xf372e7… |
| 05-12 05:34:37 | Distorted-Marines 0xd6c7…a6a3 | Up | BUY | 1 | 77¢ | $1 | 0x2b2feb… |
| 05-12 05:19:53 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 7 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x7e2bc6… |
| 05-12 05:19:53 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 6 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x6e9913… |
| 05-12 05:19:53 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 6 | 25¢ | $2 | 0xf627c9… |
| 05-12 05:19:53 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 6 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x169650… |
| 05-12 05:19:53 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Down | BUY | 7 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x6968cf… |
| 05-12 04:59:44 | Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 | Up | BUY | 5 | 71¢ | $4 | 0xbc2de0… |
| 05-12 04:54:20 | Deficient-Fritter 0xfbd4…f144 | Down | BUY | 35 | 29¢ | $10 | 0x7b4c6a… |
| 05-12 04:49:26 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Down | BUY | 15 | 25¢ | $4 | 0x6f1c8c… |
| 05-12 04:40:43 | Frozen-Most 0x9607…e159 | Up | SELL | 217 | 75¢ | $163 | 0x4774c0… |
| 05-12 04:25:38 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Up | BUY | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xfbf298… |
| 05-12 04:20:44 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Up | BUY | 6 | 63¢ | $4 | 0xa05fbe… |
| 05-12 04:15:52 | Near-Strike 0x679c…afff | Down | SELL | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x54c2bf… |
| 05-12 04:05:57 | (anonymous) 0x63f7…ed20 | Down | BUY | 21 | 54¢ | $11 | 0xc04ae4… |
| 05-12 04:00:58 | Square-Citrus 0x2c41…57a6 | Down | BUY | 472 | 53¢ | $250 | 0xfed4c4… |
| 05-12 04:00:47 | Square-Citrus 0x2c41…57a6 | Down | BUY | 142 | 53¢ | $75 | 0xa2216a… |
| 05-12 04:00:38 | Square-Citrus 0x2c41…57a6 | Down | BUY | 146 | 51¢ | $75 | 0xbb139d… |
| 05-11 21:28:03 | Yellow-Nudge 0xc5f9…d923 | Up | BUY | 6 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x8f5784… |