Ironclad-Causal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.2%

Resolved

200

Trades

578

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 05-21 10:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 98% +$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	05-15 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	05-17 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1AM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	Down	+$1	05-13 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	05-21 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	2	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	05-18 01:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11PM ET	2	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	05-16 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$91	50	50	+0	open	—	05-18 23:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	2	$90	50	50	+0	open	—	05-17 07:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET	2	$90	50	50	+0	open	—	05-14 18:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET	2	$90	50	50	+0	open	—	05-18 20:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	2	$89	50	50	+0	open	—	05-16 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	2	$89	50	50	+0	Down	$-9	05-11 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET	3	$88	51	51	+0	open	—	05-14 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-14 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	05-16 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$58	40	40	+0	open	—	05-20 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-13 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-20 14:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-16 06:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Up	+$0	05-13 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-12 15:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 23:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-14 03:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-20 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-18 10:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-13 13:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Up	+$0	05-14 00:52
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-13 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2PM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-18 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-16 09:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 10:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	Up	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x2bd50c…
05-20 20:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x352a9c…
05-20 19:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x4c342c…
05-20 17:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc7371d…
05-20 15:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	40	45¢	$18	0xfd3aee…
05-20 15:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xc998fc…
05-20 14:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x6bd791…
05-20 07:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xeb27fa…
05-20 04:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x553181…
05-20 03:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x5620f2…
05-19 15:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4c110d…
05-19 12:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4d10e2…
05-19 11:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x70bc1b…
05-19 10:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x7483ff…
05-19 09:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x71c4d7…
05-19 08:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb267ec…
05-19 07:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe2101f…
05-19 06:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc054d9…
05-19 04:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb3691c…
05-19 03:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x33d90e…
05-19 00:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf0da8f…
05-18 23:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$49	0xd126a1…
05-18 23:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x0ae5cd…
05-18 23:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x77fed0…
05-18 22:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x38ccc9…
05-18 21:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1041db…
05-18 20:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xa32572…
05-18 20:56:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x54f1c1…
05-18 19:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xebcc58…
05-18 18:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdcda65…
05-18 17:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x8ba832…
05-18 15:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa9be1f…
05-18 15:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x12ce4a…
05-18 11:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x377157…
05-18 10:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb8e76b…
05-18 09:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x588c2c…
05-18 08:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$49	0xdf21ef…
05-18 07:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x71a7a9…
05-18 06:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xc2e8a2…
05-18 04:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb586b4…
05-18 03:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x99ce52…
05-18 02:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x79c977…
05-18 01:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x837c6c…
05-18 01:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x7a1504…
05-18 00:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe1156b…
05-17 23:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb247ad…
05-17 20:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8e95c5…
05-17 19:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9ed4e8…
05-17 18:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xecd8e6…
05-17 17:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4c81f0…
05-17 15:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x9639b3…
05-17 14:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4f8f9a…
05-17 13:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x49e4f5…
05-17 12:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1c7560…
05-17 11:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x346586…
05-17 11:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x940f42…
05-17 10:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa24bb1…
05-17 09:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb2190c…
05-17 08:55:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x34ed1d…
05-17 08:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x86d8df…
05-17 07:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1ab789…
05-17 07:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x98075b…
05-17 07:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xb05684…
05-17 04:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x6b1e89…
05-17 02:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xfe9ab8…
05-17 01:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4b99db…
05-17 00:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x03d2b5…
05-16 23:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x752468…
05-16 22:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x994eb1…
05-16 19:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x347fad…
05-16 16:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x18e2bf…
05-16 15:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xa34ec8…
05-16 14:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdc5f1c…
05-16 14:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x28cd60…
05-16 12:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaf109e…
05-16 11:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x7bb203…
05-16 10:54:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x562d0c…
05-16 09:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x02f6d5…
05-16 08:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x5af907…
05-16 07:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd856c3…
05-16 07:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x60e40f…
05-16 07:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0ea85b…
05-16 06:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdb2729…
05-16 05:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	50	57¢	$29	0xb9cbbd…
05-16 05:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x4eb7e9…
05-16 03:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x0a4bce…
05-16 03:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xf67284…
05-16 02:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xff5d96…
05-15 22:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x6f9deb…
05-15 21:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x75b490…
05-15 19:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xa53cf7…
05-15 19:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x32c284…
05-15 18:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x269c47…
05-15 17:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe2d325…
05-15 16:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x018e13…
05-15 15:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa85963…
05-15 15:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa35358…
05-15 14:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8cdf1e…
05-15 12:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc30129…
05-15 11:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1efd5f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	474	$105.7K	4,259	05-22 02:02
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	410	$460.8K	30,437	05-20 20:57
Near-Strike 0x679c…afff	399	$121.7K	27,363	05-20 20:58
Energetic-Hosiery 0x6fdc…953f	391	$180.8K	6,355	05-20 19:34
Orderly-Balance 0xea58…520c	391	$24.3K	952	05-20 21:30
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	386	$48.0K	10,340	05-20 20:56
Favorite-Sunflower 0xba01…8535	385	$138.5K	4,949	05-20 20:47
(anonymous) 0x7cd2…3079	369	$230.1K	32,982	05-20 20:59