Flustered-Bet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

238

lifetime

Volume

$9.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$24

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-10 11:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 100% +$16

Other

13% — —

Politics

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		-70	$-17	24¢	$-16	+$0	06-05 06:35
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+20	$7	38¢	$8	+$0	06-01 08:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	7	$695	397	298	+99	open	—	05-13 18:56
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	4	$417	214	213	+0	open	—	04-20 14:52
bitcoin above 66k on april 12	2	$369	184	184	+0	open	—	04-12 12:23
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	2	$368	184	184	+0	open	—	04-13 10:57
bitcoin above 70k on april 15	2	$368	186	185	+0	open	—	04-14 16:08
bitcoin above 68k on april 15	2	$361	181	181	+0	open	—	04-14 16:20
bitcoin above 70k on april 17	2	$343	172	172	+0	open	—	04-17 18:20
bitcoin above 80k on april 22	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	04-22 00:44
bitcoin above 62k on march 30	2	$222	111	111	+0	open	—	03-30 13:18
Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	5	$206	124	82	+41	open	—	03-05 17:32
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	05-23 07:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?	2	$200	102	102	+0	open	—	05-23 07:14
btc updown 5m 1776669600	1	$189	191	0	+191	open	—	04-20 07:21
btc updown 5m 1776654600	1	$186	193	0	+193	open	—	04-20 03:14
bitcoin above 82k on april 15	1	$180	181	0	+181	open	—	04-14 16:49
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	1	$160	168	0	+168	open	—	04-19 16:17
bitcoin above 62k on march 28	1	$151	152	0	+152	open	—	03-28 02:16
will bitcoin reach 78k on march 25	1	$151	151	0	+151	open	—	03-25 12:44
will bitcoin reach 77k on march 24	1	$151	151	0	+151	open	—	03-24 18:07
ethereum above 2400 on march 22	1	$151	151	0	+151	open	—	03-21 20:20
ethereum above 2400 on march 19	1	$151	151	0	+151	open	—	03-19 10:27
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	1	$151	151	0	+151	open	—	03-13 14:21
ethereum above 1700 on march 12	1	$150	151	0	+151	open	—	03-12 08:04
bitcoin above 64k on april 9	1	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	04-08 19:00
ethereum above 2000 on april 18	1	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	04-17 18:23
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29?	2	$140	73	73	+0	open	—	04-22 17:30
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score	3	$135	214	114	+100	open	—	04-29 20:06
bitcoin above 60k on april 2	1	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	04-01 20:55
bitcoin above 64k on march 30	1	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	03-30 13:20
bitcoin above 60k on april 6	1	$111	111	0	+111	open	—	04-05 17:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 11:10:31	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x522097…
06-05 06:35:54	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	70	24¢	$17	0x28a2a3…
06-01 08:30:19	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x66d240…
05-30 18:49:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5f37bb…
05-30 10:03:02	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x245a60…
05-29 20:05:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe8dcc1…
05-29 04:35:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x272639…
05-26 19:54:53	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0x392ddc…
05-24 19:08:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb11b67…
05-24 08:32:58	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0xe1317a…
05-23 07:14:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?	Yes	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x3f5abf…
05-23 07:12:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd88bbc…
05-23 07:10:23	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$100	0x9de641…
05-23 07:09:28	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5dfc5a…
05-22 09:45:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xed3e2a…
05-17 09:14:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x1c1dc2…
05-13 18:56:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x5773fe…
05-13 18:55:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0xa13f28…
05-13 18:55:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe9a878…
05-13 18:54:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0xfb17c9…
05-13 18:53:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x0e613a…
05-13 18:53:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd53fc5…
05-13 18:52:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4aef48…
05-11 21:32:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 12?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x572c14…
05-03 18:35:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x06046c…
05-01 19:01:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xade86e…
05-01 05:33:44	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x45104b…
04-29 20:06:46	Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfcdf36…
04-29 18:58:32	Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	114	30¢	$34	0x3fb9f8…
04-29 11:35:46	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	29	52¢	$15	0xc096e3…
04-29 11:29:14	Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x3faee7…
04-28 10:48:38	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xd2a329…
04-26 20:27:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x367b7c…
04-24 20:09:24	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 rea	Yes	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0xdd90c1…
04-24 13:48:24	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 rea	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x80cd56…
04-22 17:30:34	Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x994237…
04-22 17:28:02	Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0x3ab3e6…
04-22 17:25:36	Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29?	Yes	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x0aa26d…
04-22 16:51:38	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 draw	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x0e953b…
04-22 16:50:48	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x271777…
04-22 10:54:18	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xc04fd8…
04-22 00:45:20	OpenGradient FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x8ded2e…
04-22 00:44:10	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	No	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0xc83642…
04-21 21:40:40	USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0x015a4f…
04-21 21:22:44	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 spread home 1pt5	Deportivo Alavés	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x76dfbf…
04-21 20:13:28	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xc679ce…
04-21 20:08:20	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 rea	No	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0xd8e4e4…
04-21 19:48:32	epl bri che 2026 04 21 che	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2e5e31…
04-21 19:35:20	OpenGradient FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xaf46a8…
04-21 19:30:28	USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xc7f0ad…
04-21 09:51:50	will trump say roaring or like a rock during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x7374a2…
04-21 09:49:10	will trump say roaring or like a rock during cnbc squawk box appearance on april 21	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xa3538d…
04-20 23:52:44	btc updown 5m 1776729000	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x40430c…
04-20 23:50:34	btc updown 5m 1776729000	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x50ad22…
04-20 23:47:50	btc updown 5m 1776728700	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x6454ea…
04-20 23:45:54	btc updown 5m 1776728700	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4c9e31…
04-20 22:05:46	lal rso get 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x09db60…
04-20 22:03:56	lal rso get 2026 04 22 get	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x7f9398…
04-20 22:02:06	lal rso get 2026 04 22 draw	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x81a9f0…
04-20 21:59:44	lal rso get 2026 04 22 get	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb1c186…
04-20 21:58:56	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 rea	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x54aa89…
04-20 21:56:38	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 ala	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x06546c…
04-20 21:54:16	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 spread home 1pt5	Deportivo Alavés	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5d9995…
04-20 21:43:18	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xbb2a3f…
04-20 21:32:08	lal bil osa 2026 04 21 bil	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x27e0cb…
04-20 21:31:26	Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Pedro Boscardin Dias	Liam Draxl	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x31ff7f…
04-20 21:30:42	lal bil osa 2026 04 21 draw	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x806ebe…
04-20 21:29:32	nba atl nyk 2026 04 20	Hawks	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2780a4…
04-20 21:28:48	lal rso get 2026 04 22 rso	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x374407…
04-20 21:27:40	epl bri che 2026 04 21 che	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x615a2d…
04-20 20:40:24	btc updown 5m 1776717300	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc75dfb…
04-20 20:26:58	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x4ed8b5…
04-20 14:58:46	btc updown 5m 1776696900	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb8f2fa…
04-20 14:57:00	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x179a18…
04-20 14:52:18	ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x1123dc…
04-20 11:52:14	ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x18a1a2…
04-20 09:56:14	ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xe09007…
04-20 08:49:00	btc updown 5m 1776674700	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x887605…
04-20 08:25:56	ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xc37b8e…
04-20 07:28:44	btc updown 5m 1776669900	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe089c5…
04-20 07:21:42	btc updown 5m 1776669600	Up	BUY	191	99¢	$189	0x63cee4…
04-20 07:14:56	btc updown 5m 1776669000	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa2cdff…
04-20 07:14:08	btc updown 5m 1776669000	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xef86b5…
04-20 07:04:42	btc updown 5m 1776668400	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x82caab…
04-20 06:59:20	btc updown 5m 1776668100	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x174667…
04-20 06:54:34	btc updown 5m 1776667800	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4f490b…
04-20 03:44:02	btc updown 5m 1776656400	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xcd0ab8…
04-20 03:39:40	btc updown 5m 1776656100	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x44c9af…
04-20 03:34:44	btc updown 5m 1776655800	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x6af8f0…
04-20 03:23:24	btc updown 5m 1776655200	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x23f018…
04-20 03:18:52	btc updown 5m 1776654900	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x54cf01…
04-20 03:14:46	btc updown 5m 1776654600	Up	BUY	193	96¢	$186	0xd61c90…
04-19 21:29:28	btc updown 5m 1776633900	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x34c648…
04-19 21:23:50	btc updown 5m 1776633600	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x017b47…
04-19 21:18:50	btc updown 5m 1776633300	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x5bda27…
04-19 21:18:20	btc updown 5m 1776633300	Down	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x51047e…
04-19 21:16:04	btc updown 5m 1776633300	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb84899…
04-19 21:09:54	btc updown 5m 1776632700	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7d6e0e…
04-19 21:09:50	btc updown 5m 1776632700	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe566c1…
04-19 21:04:32	btc updown 5m 1776632400	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x9a351a…