Cavernous-Trellis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

Trades

334

lifetime

Volume

$864

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-21

last 08-18 02:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

55% 49% -$28

Other

31% 53% -$10

Tech

10% 50% $0

Crypto

3% 0% $0

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+35	$8	0¢	$0	-$8	05-28 10:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	16	$51	50	50	+0	No	+$1	05-25 17:44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	8	$36	62	62	+0	Yes	+$12	05-22 22:20
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	15	$33	66	66	+0	Yes	-$8	06-07 21:46
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$27	54	54	+0	open	—	07-02 04:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	7	$24	15	15	+0	No	+$1	07-01 14:45
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	6	$24	16	16	+0	No	+$1	05-24 15:11
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	9	$23	33	33	+0	No	-$1	06-10 09:09
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	7	$21	16	16	+0	No	+$2	06-07 23:27
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	8	$16	26	26	+0	Yes	+$4	06-05 17:56
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$15	26	19	+7	No	$0	05-26 03:01
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	4	$15	22	22	+0	Usyk	+$11	05-23 23:01
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	5	$15	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-09 16:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$14	9	9	+0	No	+$0	06-14 11:10
Fed rate hike in 2026?	3	$14	15	15	+0	Yes	+$3	07-02 04:28
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:45
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:45
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	3	$13	8	8	+0	Yes	+$1	06-28 02:13
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-02 04:29
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	06-05 22:55
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$12	9	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:45
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	3	$12	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 14:35
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	3	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	07-01 14:45
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	5	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$0	05-25 02:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	4	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$0	05-31 09:49
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 04:30
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$12	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	05-29 06:20
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	3	$12	14	14	+0	No	+$1	07-02 04:29
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	3	$12	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	07-01 14:45
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 04:28
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	4	$11	13	13	+0	open	—	07-02 04:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 02:54:25	lol bombat lds 2026 08 18	BOMBA Team	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x15cb3e…
07-02 04:36:02	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x81d94f…
07-02 04:35:04	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x72fbdb…
07-02 04:34:16	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x846dca…
07-02 04:33:46	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x34bdae…
07-02 04:33:37	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0x9a65ec…
07-02 04:33:13	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0xecd0b1…
07-02 04:32:49	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x3534e3…
07-02 04:32:10	will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x3886b0…
07-02 04:31:49	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xb2afb8…
07-02 04:31:23	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x4b6a86…
07-02 04:30:49	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x6a5577…
07-02 04:30:16	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	43¢	$5	0x4b88b5…
07-02 04:29:55	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	54	39¢	$21	0x0dc76c…
07-02 04:29:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$7	0x611e14…
07-02 04:29:01	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0xab7d57…
07-02 04:28:38	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x8ce37d…
07-02 04:28:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0x12d8a2…
07-01 14:46:04	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x785277…
07-01 14:46:04	Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x5f581d…
07-01 14:46:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xc7e4d4…
07-01 14:45:59	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xde5185…
07-01 14:45:55	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x128edd…
07-01 14:45:52	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xaf0c0d…
07-01 14:45:50	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x5c1c66…
07-01 14:45:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0xa3025e…
07-01 14:45:46	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x67b477…
07-01 14:45:44	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x141d66…
07-01 14:45:43	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x6104d7…
07-01 14:45:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x08cd91…
07-01 14:45:40	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	No	SELL	9	63¢	$6	0x491af3…
06-28 02:13:29	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0xb1be91…
06-25 15:00:46	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x788b73…
06-25 14:58:29	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x91c5e0…
06-24 19:06:04	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xafaacb…
06-24 17:46:23	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x8e8528…
06-22 14:12:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x61fa14…
06-22 12:36:26	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xe385ae…
06-19 10:18:29	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6bcdeb…
06-18 15:45:02	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd48307…
06-18 15:29:49	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3561ae…
06-18 14:35:53	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x09a8b8…
06-18 10:27:22	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xeefa7d…
06-18 06:28:34	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7b77aa…
06-18 02:33:25	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x9297af…
06-18 01:35:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x32117e…
06-16 00:51:57	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x08fec5…
06-15 13:55:00	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa59f94…
06-15 13:36:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x76e327…
06-14 21:35:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x320d1c…
06-14 18:29:49	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5	Over	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0x744825…
06-14 18:29:30	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5	Over	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x9c256f…
06-14 16:14:25	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5	Over	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x8d5dfe…
06-14 11:10:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x8c269a…
06-13 17:57:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x28a888…
06-13 16:53:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x4c863d…
06-13 11:59:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x777ce6…
06-13 11:47:48	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x5eecb9…
06-13 09:52:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x356f67…
06-13 09:50:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x3a6161…
06-13 01:57:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xae9cf4…
06-12 03:51:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x14be92…
06-11 21:09:03	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x586cf0…
06-11 20:32:07	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x9fadc6…
06-11 19:30:33	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x45a226…
06-11 19:11:34	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xfe354f…
06-11 18:27:48	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0x134b85…
06-11 17:12:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xe632ea…
06-11 17:12:25	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xea73c7…
06-11 13:50:51	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x10af98…
06-11 12:56:49	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x748ab3…
06-11 12:15:27	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa14d63…
06-11 11:51:28	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xf355ea…
06-11 11:36:25	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x549b57…
06-11 11:01:45	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xe76acb…
06-11 11:01:07	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x328be0…
06-11 08:08:40	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3e6312…
06-11 04:48:40	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc93b64…
06-11 04:33:12	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x499f6f…
06-11 03:11:55	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x64745f…
06-11 01:01:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x378000…
06-11 00:30:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x3ed2ec…
06-10 23:46:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x1bd142…
06-10 22:47:58	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0xd1c188…
06-10 09:09:49	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x272d1e…
06-10 06:43:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0x3371b2…
06-10 06:38:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x59d4d3…
06-10 02:31:01	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x25593f…
06-09 23:49:55	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5457d9…
06-09 19:27:57	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xe61f22…
06-09 19:22:48	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0xaa1f04…
06-09 19:19:07	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0x4fba99…
06-09 18:36:58	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xec386c…
06-09 18:20:46	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x653535…
06-09 18:01:40	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	35	11¢	$4	0x3679a5…
06-09 16:59:51	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x6d12f5…
06-09 16:53:51	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x52db17…
06-09 01:44:22	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfdec2c…
06-08 07:32:46	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5c4910…
06-08 06:19:30	will trump say six seven this week 20260605142537476	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x0e6511…