Severe-Hospitality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$57

Unrealized P&L

+$269

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

289

Trades

1,145

lifetime

Volume

$160.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$38

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-27 07:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Other

48% 66% +$150

Crypto

41% 75% +$56

Politics

11% 61% -$265

Sports

0% 67% +$0

Tech

0% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-330	-$308	12¢	$-38	+$270	06-04 04:02
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic	-0	$1	92¢	$-0	-$2	05-23 19:17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	05-03 21:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	44	$7.2K	4,394	4,394	+0	open	—	08-29 06:53
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	14	$6.6K	3,466	3,466	+0	open	—	08-29 07:06
will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	36	$4.2K	2,118	2,118	+0	No	+$0	03-18 14:03
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	4	$3.3K	1,672	1,672	+0	No	-$1	02-08 16:27
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	6	$3.3K	1,645	1,645	+0	No	$0	03-14 03:46
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	4	$2.6K	1,323	1,323	+0	No	-$1	02-03 11:55
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	9	$2.6K	1,325	1,325	+0	No	+$0	03-23 16:17
highest temperature in tokyo on march 21 2026 17c	3	$2.5K	1,512	1,010	+502	No	+$1	03-21 09:00
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	6	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$9	02-23 03:30
will ethereum reach 3600 in march 2026	44	$2.2K	1,096	1,096	+0	No	+$0	03-11 08:46
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	13	$2.1K	1,412	706	+706	No	+$6	02-27 14:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2.1K	1,051	1,051	+0	Yes	+$0	03-05 10:08
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	6	$2.1K	1,038	1,038	+0	No	+$7	03-04 20:50
will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	10	$2.0K	1,018	1,018	+0	No	+$0	03-07 14:24
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 7	2	$2.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	No	+$0	02-07 07:18
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	4	$2.0K	1,001	1,001	+0	No	+$0	03-17 11:11
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?	7	$1.9K	983	983	+0	Yes	+$5	02-22 14:21
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	2	$1.9K	958	958	+0	No	+$0	02-15 07:17
will mrbeasts next video get between 50pt0 and 50pt5 million views on day 6	2	$1.9K	941	941	+0	No	+$1	02-13 14:15
ethereum above 2400 on february 12	3	$1.9K	930	930	+0	No	+$0	02-12 06:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$1.6K	955	955	+0	No	+$22	07-02 08:06
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	2	$1.4K	704	704	+0	No	+$1	02-24 15:34
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$1.4K	701	701	+0	No	+$0	02-23 05:40
will trump visit china by march 31	9	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$3	03-25 14:07
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	2	$1.3K	663	663	+0	No	-$1	02-04 11:22
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.3K	657	657	+0	No	-$1	02-05 12:48
bitcoin above 88k on january 29	5	$1.3K	656	656	+0	No	+$3	01-29 16:13
will a human or an ai win the aster trading competition	2	$1.3K	653	653	+0	AI	+$4	01-29 15:39
will amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$1.3K	651	651	+0	No	-$1	02-02 09:17
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	2	$1.3K	648	648	+0	No	-$1	01-27 07:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:14:41	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	SELL	1,019	4¢	$41	0xf99167…
10-01 17:54:21	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0xfaa346…
09-23 04:43:17	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	719	13¢	$93	0x5d7b26…
09-02 05:41:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	283	79¢	$223	0x110083…
08-29 07:10:01	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	283	71¢	$200	0x55a0d2…
08-29 07:06:30	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	524	95¢	$499	0x09bb3c…
08-29 07:01:36	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	524	95¢	$500	0xfe6fbf…
08-29 06:59:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	734	95¢	$699	0x610269…
08-29 06:57:46	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	734	95¢	$700	0x8749ba…
08-29 06:53:06	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	795	88¢	$699	0xa9589e…
08-29 06:52:18	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	795	88¢	$700	0x91245b…
08-28 15:27:37	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	734	95¢	$699	0x371cd2…
08-28 15:23:40	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	734	95¢	$700	0x6a2ac4…
08-28 10:17:21	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	734	95¢	$699	0xcb454d…
08-28 10:05:54	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	734	95¢	$700	0x036777…
08-28 10:02:42	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	524	95¢	$499	0x8e6221…
08-28 10:00:13	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	524	95¢	$500	0xd970e2…
08-26 10:14:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	87¢	$216	0x521e81…
08-26 09:56:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	87¢	$217	0xfccf27…
08-26 09:54:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	288	87¢	$250	0xbbd61c…
08-26 09:53:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	288	87¢	$250	0xd7112a…
08-12 03:35:19	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	291	86¢	$250	0x51ea2d…
08-12 03:33:04	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	86¢	$250	0x12c52f…
08-12 03:24:30	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–6%?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x293b8e…
08-12 03:12:03	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–6%?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xa6c1d3…
08-11 23:44:45	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x44ef08…
08-11 20:47:27	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x158ebc…
08-11 18:09:36	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x222ad0…
08-11 03:38:43	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	233	86¢	$200	0x846cdf…
08-11 03:37:58	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0xe01a4a…
08-08 08:23:25	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x054ddd…
08-08 06:35:24	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 8?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x24ba56…
08-08 06:31:40	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x8f4a78…
08-07 16:51:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	231	87¢	$200	0xac5759…
08-07 16:47:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	231	87¢	$200	0x43ed55…
08-07 09:20:07	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x7466ed…
08-07 08:43:18	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x0401a7…
08-05 08:43:26	will trump say easter egg during remarks in las vegas 20260804184721130	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xa35a15…
08-05 08:13:14	will trump say easter egg during remarks in las vegas 20260804184721130	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x9756ff…
08-04 17:13:47	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	225	89¢	$200	0x436b96…
08-04 17:12:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x4d4811…
08-04 07:40:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	225	89¢	$200	0xcb7142…
08-04 07:31:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x3bab6f…
08-03 21:00:12	will trump post pope on truth social this week 20260731171732960	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xf5e1fb…
08-03 09:15:36	will trump post pope on truth social this week 20260731171732960	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x0c233a…
08-03 02:40:51	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	225	89¢	$200	0x0af343…
08-03 02:39:41	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0xe687f4…
08-02 11:52:18	will risk be in the headlines this week 20260731155626117	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xff5bf4…
08-02 08:53:54	will risk be in the headlines this week 20260731155626117	Yes	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0x3337b8…
08-02 03:46:14	will elon post iran or iranian on x this week 20260731162042276	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x9fe8fc…
08-02 01:14:36	will elon post iran or iranian on x this week 20260731162042276	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x779595…
08-01 18:19:48	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	88¢	$150	0x2a84e6…
08-01 18:17:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0x7054d9…
08-01 17:40:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	88¢	$150	0x3a6ebd…
08-01 17:39:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0x94e09c…
08-01 05:30:02	will trump speak to xi jinping in august 20260731154203516	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xdc5a58…
08-01 05:27:36	will trump speak to xi jinping in august 20260731154203516	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x1f281b…
07-31 10:57:56	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	89¢	$200	0xccdddf…
07-31 10:57:08	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	224	89¢	$200	0x5a8751…
07-31 10:53:51	Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x4217e0…
07-31 10:49:15	Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3c8db9…
07-06 10:35:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	114	88¢	$100	0xede50e…
07-06 10:34:05	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xc88999…
07-06 06:03:26	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xa9af95…
07-06 05:19:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xd190cb…
07-03 18:24:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x0c0278…
07-03 09:31:53	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	77¢	$100	0xdae0fb…
07-03 09:30:17	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0x5493e2…
07-03 09:01:28	will elon post chatgpt on x this week 20260626175121139	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xf7a226…
07-03 08:40:29	will elon post chatgpt on x this week 20260626175121139	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x96a9eb…
07-03 06:42:13	stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt23	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xdb9e6c…
07-03 06:37:16	stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt23	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xa03b80…
07-02 12:54:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x522ffd…
07-02 08:06:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	121	82¢	$100	0x7cf58e…
07-02 08:05:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x39d164…
07-02 08:04:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	121	82¢	$100	0xb32d37…
07-02 08:03:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x869c49…
07-02 06:05:23	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xed63df…
07-02 05:01:40	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x2f2fac…
07-02 04:52:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x9ddf19…
07-02 04:52:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xadd396…
07-02 03:49:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x1861dd…
07-01 09:20:20	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	78¢	$100	0x7aec8b…
07-01 09:19:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xd0c73a…
06-30 06:20:55	will the announcers say vulnerable during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343707	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x6d62bf…
06-30 06:18:52	will the announcers say vulnerable during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343707	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x2ab7a9…
06-29 16:31:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$165	0x6b1530…
06-29 13:02:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbebfb5…
06-29 11:28:05	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfb8542…
06-29 11:27:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x726cc0…
06-29 10:38:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf39836…
06-29 06:05:31	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3d7dea…
06-29 05:20:02	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xfcb0d0…
06-29 05:07:16	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xddca2c…
06-25 08:18:11	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x25ab2d…
06-25 08:09:02	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x13073f…
06-25 08:06:02	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xed6007…
06-25 08:05:01	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe70bd4…
06-25 07:59:43	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	70	21¢	$15	0x94ed7a…
06-25 07:58:07	Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x9b8078…