Surprised-Instrument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$721

Hit rate

33.9%

Resolved

141

Trades

769

lifetime

Volume

$92.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$120

Open exposure

$3.90K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-25 21:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 20% -$1,655

Other

29% 31% -$13,767

Politics

8% 43% -$588

Sports

0% 33% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10,714	$3,000	36¢	$3.8K	+$804	10-24 18:42
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,400	$161	2¢	$80	-$81	10-18 21:49
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+21	$10	44¢	$9	-$1	10-19 09:30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$5	30¢	$5	$0	10-19 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:20 UTC	11	$8.6K	8,575	8,004	+571	Down	+$7,765	04-10 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:25 UTC	12	$7.2K	6,984	6,528	+455	Up	+$6,317	04-10 12:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?	2	$5.0K	20,948	0	+20,948	No	-$5,000	05-24 20:17
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	9	$4.4K	160,067	0	+160,067	No	-$4,362	10-24 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	19	$3.1K	35,565	3,424	+32,141	Up	+$181	10-20 22:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$3.0K	10,714	0	+10,714	open	—	10-24 18:42
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	2	$2.3K	23,441	0	+23,441	No	-$2,300	10-21 20:02
Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	2	$2.2K	9,012	0	+9,012	No	-$2,200	10-25 15:31
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$2.0K	2,667	0	+2,667	No	+$667	01-14 18:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 13:00 UTC	14	$1.7K	8,870	0	+8,870	Down	-$1,690	04-10 13:04
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	4	$1.6K	33,004	0	+33,004	No	-$1,584	10-25 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:45 UTC	14	$1.5K	3,952	1,005	+2,947	Up	-$94	04-10 12:49
Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?	1	$1.5K	13,105	0	+13,105	No	-$1,500	10-25 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	8	$1.4K	40,342	1,662	+38,680	Down	+$170	10-20 22:35
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25?	1	$1.4K	9,643	0	+9,643	Yes	+$8,293	10-25 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:55 UTC	12	$1.3K	4,548	286	+4,262	Up	-$888	04-10 12:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.2K	736	736	+0	No	-$7	04-09 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:10 UTC	12	$1.2K	1,880	555	+1,324	Up	+$325	04-11 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	10	$1.2K	4,735	647	+4,087	Down	-$149	10-20 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	12	$1.2K	12,291	297	+11,994	Up	-$814	10-20 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:50 UTC	15	$1.1K	11,992	343	+11,650	Down	-$595	04-10 12:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:05 UTC	11	$1.1K	7,797	643	+7,154	Down	-$16	04-20 21:09
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 1 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	1	$1.1K	12,992	0	+12,992	No	-$1,100	10-21 18:08
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	1	$1.1K	12,497	0	+12,497	No	-$1,100	10-21 18:08
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-24?	3	$1.0K	12,507	0	+12,507	No	-$1,026	10-24 17:53
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	1	$1.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	-$1,000	05-24 20:17
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-21?	1	$1000	34,801	0	+34,801	No	-$1,000	10-21 18:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 13:20 UTC	10	$1000	8,795	0	+8,795	Up	-$1,000	04-10 13:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 23:25 UTC	10	$979	2,399	1,751	+648	Down	-$79	04-11 23:29
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	1	$894	1,708	0	+1,708	No	-$894	01-14 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 21:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x086068…
10-25 21:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x2881b4…
10-25 21:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x6ac21d…
10-25 21:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	735	14¢	$100	0x826517…
10-25 21:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	803	12¢	$100	0x03a4bc…
10-25 21:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x80093b…
10-25 20:18:24	Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?	Yes	BUY	13,105	11¢	$1,500	0x7a20ed…
10-25 15:41:02	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	3,519	2¢	$84	0x217c3f…
10-25 15:39:51	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	11,272	3¢	$300	0xe7b536…
10-25 15:31:14	Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2,762	25¢	$700	0x37ed69…
10-25 15:30:56	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	4,000	5¢	$200	0xc52828…
10-25 15:21:32	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1,667	24¢	$400	0xc28da9…
10-25 15:20:57	Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6,250	24¢	$1,500	0x0293ca…
10-25 15:20:42	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	14,212	7¢	$1,000	0x63f2b1…
10-25 13:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6,491	0¢	$25	0x5aefdc…
10-25 13:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2,520	1¢	$25	0xe424aa…
10-25 13:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3,581	1¢	$25	0x7ab13c…
10-25 13:08:48	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	9,643	14¢	$1,350	0xf983f6…
10-24 18:42:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10,714	28¢	$3,000	0x3f72fc…
10-24 17:55:48	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	110,000	0¢	$110	0x47e045…
10-24 17:54:48	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	14,229	3¢	$400	0x17d268…
10-24 17:53:50	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	4,398	9¢	$400	0x9f2ef4…
10-24 17:53:42	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	7,131	5¢	$356	0xc57c9d…
10-24 17:53:36	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	4,174	5¢	$195	0x163f61…
10-24 17:53:29	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	7,109	6¢	$426	0x024ba9…
10-24 17:53:20	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	9,224	5¢	$500	0xf65b75…
10-24 17:53:12	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	3,932	6¢	$229	0x676670…
10-24 17:36:30	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x5619cf…
10-24 17:36:18	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	3,637	27¢	$1,000	0x2458c3…
10-24 17:36:08	Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	378	53¢	$200	0x12d821…
10-24 17:33:14	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	4,084	29¢	$1,172	0x9211bf…
10-24 17:33:00	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	3,655	11¢	$400	0x0b7905…
10-22 20:20:18	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,071	1¢	$15	0x4deff2…
10-22 20:19:45	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	4,279	2¢	$100	0xe80948…
10-22 20:19:30	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	787	1¢	$7	0xc8404f…
10-22 20:18:08	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	4,592	1¢	$50	0xef3648…
10-22 20:17:54	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	673	1¢	$10	0x280562…
10-22 20:17:21	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	7,721	1¢	$102	0xbbc045…
10-21 20:02:42	Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	Yes	BUY	5,441	9¢	$500	0x1bd6b6…
10-21 18:12:18	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	34,801	3¢	$1,000	0x04d326…
10-21 18:08:38	Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 1 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	Yes	BUY	12,992	8¢	$1,100	0xef76e7…
10-21 18:08:12	Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	Yes	BUY	12,497	9¢	$1,100	0x91d04b…
10-21 18:07:59	Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	Yes	BUY	18,000	10¢	$1,800	0xced20e…
10-20 22:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1,252	4¢	$46	0xa2b7a6…
10-20 22:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	976	5¢	$54	0x4a9256…
10-20 22:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0x6b0c52…
10-20 22:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x17b947…
10-20 22:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	251	40¢	$100	0x788485…
10-20 22:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xefaafd…
10-20 22:52:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8be9c4…
10-20 22:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x6fe5ea…
10-20 22:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xd68151…
10-20 22:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x18ffb8…
10-20 22:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x02bff6…
10-20 22:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x261a6b…
10-20 22:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0xea0801…
10-20 22:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x82b59f…
10-20 22:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xf48852…
10-20 22:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0x3db7dd…
10-20 22:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	322	31¢	$100	0x104235…
10-20 22:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x8a7cca…
10-20 22:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	269	37¢	$100	0x22617e…
10-20 22:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	264	38¢	$100	0x56e94b…
10-20 22:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	118	61¢	$72	0x715c6b…
10-20 22:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xc8d069…
10-20 22:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	307	33¢	$100	0x15c54a…
10-20 22:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xda7a7e…
10-20 22:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	297	58¢	$171	0xcf147a…
10-20 22:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x479059…
10-20 22:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	277	36¢	$100	0x1e38de…
10-20 22:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1,963	3¢	$51	0x34f51a…
10-20 22:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	980	5¢	$49	0x83d4f9…
10-20 22:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	167	15¢	$25	0xf9b205…
10-20 22:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	416	24¢	$100	0xf40609…
10-20 22:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	437	23¢	$100	0xe22621…
10-20 22:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	124	26¢	$32	0x39151b…
10-20 22:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	647	79¢	$508	0xaf0dd5…
10-20 22:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xeb3e15…
10-20 22:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x0ae8ea…
10-20 22:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	234	43¢	$100	0x6f579b…
10-20 22:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9,907	1¢	$100	0x21bc8b…
10-20 22:39:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4,772	2¢	$100	0xc3afde…
10-20 22:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9,994	1¢	$100	0xb8becd…
10-20 22:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1,919	5¢	$100	0x4d87d6…
10-20 22:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1,965	5¢	$100	0x5420fe…
10-20 22:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2,251	4¢	$100	0x0b80df…
10-20 22:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0x524449…
10-20 22:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0xdeda03…
10-20 22:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1,016	80¢	$816	0x6ffcb3…
10-20 22:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1,609	35¢	$564	0x81c062…
10-20 22:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	800	31¢	$251	0x760709…
10-20 22:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	830	12¢	$100	0x929785…
10-20 22:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x36ef33…
10-20 22:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x5931db…
10-20 22:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	439	23¢	$100	0x580723…
10-20 22:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	405	25¢	$100	0xf0ff41…
10-20 22:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x28c23b…
10-20 22:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xc95c72…
10-20 22:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x64e745…
10-20 22:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0xb1d3e5…