Surprised-Instrument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.12K

Hit rate

32.7%

Resolved

161

Trades

869

lifetime

Volume

$112.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$129

Open exposure

$6.00K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-28 18:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 23% -$957

Other

37% 29% -$21,688

Politics

6% 43% -$588

Sports

0% 33% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10,714	$3,000	50¢	$5.4K	+$2,357	10-24 18:42
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	+18,202	$1,701	3¢	$546	-$1,155	10-28 20:54
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,400	$161	2¢	$80	-$81	10-18 21:49
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+21	$10	43¢	$9	-$1	10-19 09:30
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$5	30¢	$5	$0	10-19 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:20 UTC	11	$8.6K	8,575	8,004	+571	Down	+$7,765	04-10 12:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:25 UTC	12	$7.2K	6,984	6,528	+455	Up	+$6,317	04-10 12:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?	2	$5.0K	20,948	0	+20,948	No	-$5,000	05-24 20:17
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-24?	9	$4.4K	160,067	0	+160,067	No	-$4,362	10-24 17:55
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	1	$3.8K	33,871	0	+33,871	No	-$3,850	10-28 18:55
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	2	$3.8K	21,256	7,652	+13,604	No	-$1,074	10-28 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	19	$3.1K	35,565	3,424	+32,141	Up	+$181	10-20 22:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$3.0K	10,714	0	+10,714	open	—	10-24 18:42
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 FK Shakhtar Donetsk?	2	$2.3K	23,441	0	+23,441	No	-$2,300	10-21 20:02
Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	2	$2.2K	9,012	0	+9,012	No	-$2,200	10-25 15:31
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$2.0K	2,667	0	+2,667	No	+$667	01-14 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$2.0K	1,818	1,818	+0	Down	+$1,600	10-28 09:30
Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	2	$1.7K	20,341	0	+20,341	No	-$1,728	10-28 17:57
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	1	$1.7K	18,202	0	+18,202	open	—	10-28 20:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 13:00 UTC	14	$1.7K	8,870	0	+8,870	Down	-$1,690	04-10 13:04
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?	4	$1.6K	33,004	0	+33,004	No	-$1,584	10-25 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:45 UTC	14	$1.5K	3,952	1,005	+2,947	Up	-$94	04-10 12:49
Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?	1	$1.5K	13,105	0	+13,105	No	-$1,500	10-25 20:18
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.5K	10,784	10,784	+0	No	+$388	10-28 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	8	$1.4K	40,342	1,662	+38,680	Down	+$170	10-20 22:35
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-25?	1	$1.4K	9,643	0	+9,643	Yes	+$8,293	10-25 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:55 UTC	12	$1.3K	4,548	286	+4,262	Up	-$888	04-10 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	20	$1.3K	11,260	0	+11,260	Down	-$1,309	10-28 10:58
Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	3	$1.2K	5,762	0	+5,762	No	-$1,220	10-28 18:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.2K	736	736	+0	No	-$7	04-09 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 21:10 UTC	12	$1.2K	1,880	555	+1,324	Up	+$325	04-11 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	10	$1.2K	4,735	647	+4,087	Down	-$149	10-20 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	12	$1.2K	12,291	297	+11,994	Up	-$814	10-20 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 12:50 UTC	15	$1.1K	11,992	343	+11,650	Down	-$595	04-10 12:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:05 UTC	11	$1.1K	7,797	643	+7,154	Down	-$16	04-20 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:54:59	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	18,202	9¢	$1,701	0xdc25ec…
10-28 18:55:31	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	33,871	11¢	$3,850	0xe6efd3…
10-28 18:15:01	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	909	22¢	$200	0xbd47b0…
10-28 18:14:38	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	1,111	13¢	$150	0x4ea82b…
10-28 18:14:20	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x2e0f9f…
10-28 18:13:37	Exact Score: AC Milan 4 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	3,027	10¢	$300	0x9fe3cd…
10-28 18:12:49	Exact Score: AC Milan 4 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	2,932	6¢	$180	0x9ec6f7…
10-28 18:11:49	Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	4,762	21¢	$1,000	0xcdc32f…
10-28 18:09:11	Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	SELL	7,652	18¢	$1,350	0x4c3154…
10-28 17:57:46	Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	10,502	8¢	$835	0x4c7d2e…
10-28 17:55:46	Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	SELL	10,784	9¢	$938	0x6e3b69…
10-28 17:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9e8683…
10-28 17:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x35e1b4…
10-28 17:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x8e617c…
10-28 17:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x738cb4…
10-28 17:01:04	Exact Score: Venezia FC 1 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?	Yes	BUY	9,839	9¢	$893	0x5ca6cd…
10-28 16:59:25	Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	21,256	11¢	$2,424	0xa5a49b…
10-28 16:58:43	Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	9,891	5¢	$501	0x7d94e1…
10-28 16:58:43	Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909?	Yes	BUY	894	5¢	$49	0x28d87f…
10-28 12:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x2f65a7…
10-28 12:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x56d1aa…
10-28 12:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1d0c8c…
10-28 11:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	280	36¢	$100	0xefeb92…
10-28 11:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0xcbe4ad…
10-28 11:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xa5409d…
10-28 11:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	279	26¢	$71	0x157fd6…
10-28 11:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x44801c…
10-28 10:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1,794	1¢	$25	0x1dd52a…
10-28 10:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xba6a04…
10-28 10:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x299b84…
10-28 10:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0xa057c2…
10-28 10:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	306	8¢	$25	0xe45191…
10-28 10:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0xac3764…
10-28 10:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	129	19¢	$25	0xcbf01f…
10-28 10:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	47	20¢	$9	0xc9c1df…
10-28 10:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	139	18¢	$25	0x9bc789…
10-28 10:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	396	25¢	$100	0x9fcf6a…
10-28 10:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	399	25¢	$100	0x91d781…
10-28 10:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	482	21¢	$100	0x0a5c06…
10-28 10:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x5c0b2c…
10-28 10:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xf8318e…
10-28 10:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xd108dc…
10-28 10:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x806a80…
10-28 10:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xb59dae…
10-28 10:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x516dfd…
10-28 10:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	239	42¢	$100	0x7a0a9e…
10-28 10:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xb5a6a2…
10-28 09:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1,884	5¢	$100	0x5a8196…
10-28 09:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0x0a68b5…
10-28 09:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	518	19¢	$100	0xaf2339…
10-28 09:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	327	8¢	$25	0x8d1ea0…
10-28 09:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x859de9…
10-28 09:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x444b8c…
10-28 09:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xe025dc…
10-28 09:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x7a3902…
10-28 09:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	453	22¢	$100	0x4db193…
10-28 09:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xa94a1b…
10-28 09:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	262	38¢	$100	0x13c844…
10-28 09:40:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0xb30511…
10-28 09:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xc8ccd5…
10-28 09:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x654cb7…
10-28 09:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	216	46¢	$100	0x1b1403…
10-28 09:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x6cc191…
10-28 09:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	287	35¢	$100	0x14004a…
10-28 09:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0xafaae7…
10-28 09:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0xef08db…
10-28 09:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xdf6eaf…
10-28 09:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1,807	6¢	$100	0x136b63…
10-28 09:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	553	95¢	$525	0x304fdf…
10-28 09:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xb8d2b9…
10-28 09:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x94985d…
10-28 09:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x6fc9fc…
10-28 09:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x4b8f46…
10-28 09:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1,818	99¢	$1,800	0xfe5ef7…
10-28 09:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0x2338ae…
10-28 09:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0x02032a…
10-27 23:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x917351…
10-27 23:16:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x6b8ba0…
10-27 23:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x60ddc6…
10-27 23:15:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	158	63¢	$100	0x8a69de…
10-27 23:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x67c112…
10-27 22:41:38	Will UD Castellonense win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	3,292	2¢	$50	0xab0dfc…
10-27 22:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0x70cd09…
10-27 22:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x9c608c…
10-27 22:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xe6c364…
10-27 22:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd61086…
10-27 22:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x56e253…
10-27 22:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xca0363…
10-27 22:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xa8c8f0…
10-27 22:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x3b0d3a…
10-27 22:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xd40b28…
10-27 22:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x462841…
10-27 22:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xdec934…
10-27 22:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x25b3fa…
10-27 22:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x642601…
10-27 22:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x3922cf…
10-27 22:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0xc14e22…
10-27 22:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	492	20¢	$100	0xa2a890…
10-27 22:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0xec3fd7…
10-27 22:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0xed428d…