Occasional-Reform — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

863

lifetime

Volume

$3.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-02 18:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

40% — —

Politics

33% 100% +$1

Other

21% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No		+25	$13	55¢	$14	+$1	06-19 21:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-5	$-4	94¢	$-5	$-0	05-29 14:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel strike iraq by february 28	12	$95	80	90	-10	open	—	03-01 14:23
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	15	$95	60	60	+0	open	—	03-09 08:12
bitcoin up or down march 4 11pm et	8	$54	46	46	+0	open	—	03-05 05:26
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	7	$42	92	92	+0	open	—	01-15 13:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	7	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	05-13 04:56
bitcoin up or down march 4 12am et	3	$41	21	26	-5	open	—	03-04 05:54
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	01-20 13:21
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	9	$39	39	39	+0	open	—	06-26 12:15
bitcoin up or down march 3 9am et	3	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 14:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	7	$38	30	40	-10	open	—	05-04 16:14
nfl la chi 2026 01 18	5	$38	20	25	-5	open	—	01-19 02:59
bitcoin up or down march 5 8am et	3	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	03-05 14:42
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$36	30	30	+0	open	—	01-15 01:54
bitcoin up or down march 3 4am et	5	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 10:01
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$35	19	19	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30
bitcoin up or down march 9 6am et	5	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	03-09 11:00
us strikes iraq by february 28	6	$28	19	19	+0	open	—	03-02 03:04
bitcoin up or down february 28 12am et	7	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	02-28 05:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$27	40	40	+0	open	—	07-02 05:33
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	4	$27	15	15	+0	open	—	03-03 03:59
bitcoin up or down february 27 12am et	4	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	02-27 05:58
bitcoin up or down february 24 4am et	4	$25	14	14	+0	open	—	02-24 09:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	03-07 10:13
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$24	90	11	+79	open	—	01-15 01:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	3	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	05-22 08:19
bitcoin up or down march 1 10pm et	7	$23	28	28	+0	open	—	03-02 03:55
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 2	2	$22	29	29	+0	open	—	03-02 15:13
bitcoin up or down march 4 8am et	4	$22	19	19	+0	open	—	03-04 13:51
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	4	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	06-22 13:44
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$22	21	21	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 18:01:53	will openais valuation hit high 900b by july 31 20260629222029481	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x8a427b…
07-02 18:01:14	will openais valuation hit high 900b by july 31 20260629222029481	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x78cecc…
07-02 13:49:16	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x8d1b5c…
07-02 05:33:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xd55025…
07-01 00:39:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x92f347…
06-30 22:20:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xa2e035…
06-30 22:19:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9182fb…
06-30 15:49:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa03dd6…
06-30 04:24:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x1af13e…
06-30 02:53:55	will netherlands reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120755	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x484bb4…
06-28 18:45:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x500c70…
06-28 18:41:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x022703…
06-28 15:08:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x666ada…
06-27 23:28:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xdfc97a…
06-27 21:24:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xbed8ad…
06-27 21:22:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x6d98a7…
06-27 21:22:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x1da78c…
06-27 08:10:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xae9302…
06-26 12:15:22	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x7f37b4…
06-26 06:01:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xc73f64…
06-26 06:00:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x479c0d…
06-26 01:31:19	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x60965d…
06-25 18:39:19	will netherlands reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120755	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2b9d56…
06-25 14:41:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x965c5b…
06-24 16:54:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xa066a6…
06-24 16:07:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xf42bad…
06-24 16:07:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xe1d591…
06-24 03:50:26	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0xde3702…
06-23 08:46:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb5f02c…
06-22 13:44:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x0cd1c2…
06-22 13:43:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf8fa5b…
06-22 12:39:35	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x688061…
06-22 03:22:13	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xc0672a…
06-22 01:25:22	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x33af5f…
06-22 01:21:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xfc1707…
06-21 14:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xda5532…
06-20 16:32:02	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x626a72…
06-20 11:27:52	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x0700a2…
06-20 08:28:38	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x1af292…
06-19 23:29:11	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xcadcdf…
06-19 21:56:38	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x53f10d…
06-19 21:11:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x7363d0…
06-19 18:23:19	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xdab92e…
06-19 17:18:07	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x0afa86…
06-19 16:36:08	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x344f4e…
06-19 14:53:20	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xd89c4f…
06-19 14:53:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x7e9f31…
06-19 12:14:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	61¢	$1	0x13bdf6…
06-19 12:14:05	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xa59f23…
06-19 12:14:04	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x14f584…
06-19 09:50:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x5e19b8…
06-19 07:24:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xfe5f44…
06-19 07:21:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x39de56…
06-19 04:44:23	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x8cfd10…
06-18 14:39:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0x99faed…
06-17 12:02:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x0ef1ae…
06-17 10:15:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x32abfe…
06-17 01:09:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	14¢	$6	0xa43a3a…
06-16 20:10:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xaf95c4…
06-16 14:29:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x78875b…
06-16 14:00:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9ccc15…
06-16 12:51:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x7ddf91…
06-16 12:39:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x28e86a…
06-16 11:39:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xdc9706…
06-16 11:38:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x59d9b2…
06-16 06:27:54	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x81efea…
06-16 02:56:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x810b1b…
06-15 23:28:42	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x2a3f10…
06-15 23:01:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x590fa0…
06-15 19:00:36	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x5938f2…
06-15 16:38:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x09cc52…
06-15 15:15:51	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc2fa82…
06-15 13:07:36	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x9bc74b…
06-15 08:05:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x91b9da…
06-15 05:58:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x48b174…
06-15 04:06:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xce0671…
06-15 01:02:13	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa25890…
06-14 23:42:36	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0x7c2537…
06-14 14:21:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x10daf8…
06-13 06:27:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xf2ca5a…
06-13 06:14:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x635785…
06-12 14:08:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0xd510cd…
06-12 14:03:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc070a9…
06-12 09:25:51	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x6f101c…
06-12 07:30:57	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x6ef831…
06-12 07:00:03	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0xbe8ec4…
06-12 06:22:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x447f83…
06-12 04:54:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xea2b34…
06-12 02:14:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x1224ec…
06-12 02:01:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x750aaa…
06-11 14:10:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x2999a4…
06-11 13:23:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x642346…
06-11 13:11:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x91ced5…
06-10 16:11:55	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x676fc8…
06-09 15:05:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x9f574d…
06-09 14:22:00	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x76cd27…
06-09 10:02:10	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x83b316…
06-09 09:44:18	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x95a27f…
06-09 09:43:10	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xe2e73b…
06-09 09:18:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xd92978…