Occasional-Reform — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

61.9%

Resolved

331

Trades

1,115

lifetime

Volume

$4.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$103

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-07 06:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Other

36% 33% -$11

Crypto

29% 62% +$20

Politics

24% 46% +$0

Tech

8% 42% -$10

Sports

2% 25% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	+56	$45	89¢	$50	+$6	11-07 02:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+70	$33	28¢	$19	-$13	10-08 01:38
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+17	$15	97¢	$16	+$1	11-07 06:55
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	+10	$7	74¢	$7	+$0	10-26 00:35
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+16	$4	32¢	$5	+$1	10-27 23:58
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+10	$4	45¢	$5	+$1	10-02 15:51
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+10	$2	6¢	$1	-$1	10-29 22:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	8	$179	100	100	+0	Yes	+$16	10-05 14:12
will israel strike iraq by february 28	12	$95	80	90	-10	No	+$22	03-01 14:23
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	15	$95	60	60	+0	No	+$0	03-09 08:12
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	8	$89	70	50	+20	Yes	+$10	10-09 07:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	5	$78	60	60	+0	open	—	11-07 02:08
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	12	$66	191	191	+0	open	—	09-20 13:40
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	4	$54	61	5	+56	open	—	11-07 02:10
bitcoin up or down march 4 11pm et	8	$54	46	46	+0	Up	-$3	03-05 05:26
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	7	$42	92	92	+0	No	-$10	01-15 13:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	7	$42	25	25	+0	No	+$5	05-13 04:56
bitcoin up or down march 4 12am et	3	$41	21	26	-5	Up	+$1	03-04 05:54
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	6	$40	60	30	+30	No	-$8	10-07 03:22
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	6	$40	30	30	+0	open	—	07-16 14:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	8	$40	40	40	+0	No	+$2	05-04 16:14
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	01-20 13:21
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	9	$39	39	39	+0	Yes	-$8	06-26 12:15
bitcoin up or down march 3 9am et	3	$39	20	20	+0	Down	+$1	03-03 14:59
nfl la chi 2026 01 18	5	$38	20	25	-5	Rams	+$0	01-19 02:59
bitcoin up or down march 5 8am et	3	$37	19	19	+0	Down	+$1	03-05 14:42
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$36	30	30	+0	No	-$2	01-15 01:54
bitcoin up or down march 3 4am et	5	$36	20	20	+0	Down	+$4	03-03 10:01
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	4	$35	30	13	+17	open	—	11-07 06:55
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$35	19	19	+0	Yes	+$1	02-28 07:30
Will Netflix win the most Emmys?	10	$34	25	25	+0	No	-$3	07-24 04:02
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	7	$33	28	28	+0	Yes	-$8	07-29 07:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	5	$33	70	0	+70	open	—	10-08 01:38
bitcoin up or down march 9 6am et	5	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$0	03-09 11:00
us strikes iraq by february 28	6	$28	19	19	+0	Yes	+$2	03-02 03:04
bitcoin up or down february 28 12am et	7	$28	16	16	+0	Down	+$0	02-28 05:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$27	40	40	+0	No	+$2	07-02 05:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 06:55:22	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb45fd4…
11-07 02:10:10	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x667c8a…
11-07 02:09:01	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x475630…
11-07 02:08:52	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0xdbef4f…
11-07 02:08:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	51¢	$31	0xd5e696…
10-31 17:05:33	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xbca3a3…
10-31 17:05:19	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0x85433d…
10-30 10:24:06	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf082d3…
10-29 22:26:51	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x4bfdef…
10-29 22:15:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x4c6872…
10-29 10:54:56	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xa2200f…
10-27 23:58:30	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0x1cc17c…
10-26 00:35:15	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc3e447…
10-25 22:02:56	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x41b2b8…
10-25 18:27:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x9856b2…
10-25 17:44:59	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x6882d8…
10-25 13:18:41	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x825ed6…
10-16 02:25:58	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $950B by October 31?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x69f05f…
10-15 12:30:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	40¢	$4	0x60b366…
10-14 15:37:03	kimi k4 released by march 31 2027	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x870494…
10-14 15:11:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xf71cf0…
10-14 15:06:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xcbaa66…
10-14 15:00:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x4020c3…
10-12 02:32:26	SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x9daeb0…
10-09 12:39:18	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $950B by October 31?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x398900…
10-09 09:15:03	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $950B by October 31?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xfdcea3…
10-09 07:39:45	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x6a60ce…
10-09 00:49:35	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x4ec163…
10-09 00:12:30	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xafa10f…
10-08 21:53:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x1c6100…
10-08 16:58:38	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xe98a84…
10-08 15:05:05	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x9ce992…
10-08 15:04:56	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x014ba5…
10-08 14:11:06	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.4T by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x02ccce…
10-08 01:38:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x5c41ac…
10-07 13:40:50	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x01ceff…
10-07 09:35:57	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x33ec72…
10-07 03:22:29	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x30f845…
10-05 14:12:20	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x81c62a…
10-05 12:48:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0xce31f4…
10-05 03:36:17	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xc5baeb…
10-02 21:26:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xdebcda…
10-02 16:01:42	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x438f83…
10-02 15:51:21	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x4f9f54…
10-02 15:04:35	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x9dfc7a…
10-01 10:56:09	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x5110a7…
10-01 10:25:57	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	97¢	$32	0xfe8011…
09-22 10:30:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x3b979d…
09-21 23:17:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x226dab…
09-21 21:28:00	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xd92e25…
09-21 02:31:23	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xbb3ae7…
09-21 01:39:59	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x0edb07…
09-20 13:40:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	6¢	$6	0x3fb0a1…
09-20 13:40:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	43¢	$8	0x560b8a…
09-20 05:50:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x9753e1…
09-20 01:49:00	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x7369f0…
09-19 03:14:28	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x51308d…
09-18 20:50:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.325T by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xc537ae…
09-18 07:04:34	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x8c14fa…
09-17 20:46:42	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x52d2de…
09-17 14:06:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xa72ae9…
09-17 13:48:48	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4475d2…
09-17 13:43:49	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x3e5968…
09-17 13:27:28	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x79689f…
09-17 13:25:27	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xab812f…
09-17 13:17:07	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x8bcbc5…
09-17 13:14:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7ea9ae…
09-17 13:09:36	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x5764b3…
09-17 07:25:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xaec402…
09-17 07:25:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	8¢	$3	0x38c79f…
09-17 06:30:51	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x2fc19c…
09-17 05:56:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x0bd50b…
09-16 17:54:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.325T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x7ce307…
09-16 13:21:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x59597f…
09-16 13:21:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x03357e…
09-16 12:12:36	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x731024…
09-16 11:38:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x1d4ac6…
09-15 15:42:33	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0fb6c5…
09-15 15:28:42	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x91d284…
09-15 14:50:12	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x75f86f…
09-15 13:54:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	13¢	$9	0x6717c1…
09-15 09:21:54	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x106e9e…
09-15 08:44:34	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x745d83…
09-15 05:50:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x74058a…
09-13 14:50:27	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x58a97a…
09-13 14:50:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xe0a483…
09-11 13:41:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x172fa2…
09-04 15:00:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x064546…
09-04 00:53:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x7ca3d6…
09-02 09:30:07	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x26e9da…
08-25 09:42:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xf3b851…
08-24 15:57:46	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7fafe8…
08-19 19:28:43	kimi k4 released by december 31 2026 20260722184115885	Yes	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0x54f97b…
08-14 11:03:24	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xced60a…
08-14 07:33:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x732833…
08-12 12:13:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x6f83b1…
08-12 12:13:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0xf58627…
08-12 04:57:39	kimi k4 released by december 31 2026 20260722184115885	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x951930…
08-11 06:12:58	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x61baad…
08-11 06:06:57	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x863ba2…