Occasional-Reform — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

769

lifetime

Volume

$2.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 15:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

46% — —

Politics

33% 100% +$1

Other

18% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	+10	$7	76¢	$8	+$1	06-03 07:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-5	$-4	86¢	$-4	$-0	05-29 14:03
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+10	$3	29¢	$3	$-0	06-09 10:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+10	$2	10¢	$1	$-1	06-03 10:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel strike iraq by february 28	12	$95	80	90	-10	open	—	03-01 14:23
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	15	$95	60	60	+0	open	—	03-09 08:12
bitcoin up or down march 4 11pm et	8	$54	46	46	+0	open	—	03-05 05:26
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	7	$42	92	92	+0	open	—	01-15 13:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	7	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	05-13 04:56
bitcoin up or down march 4 12am et	3	$41	21	26	-5	open	—	03-04 05:54
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	01-20 13:21
bitcoin up or down march 3 9am et	3	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 14:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	7	$38	30	40	-10	open	—	05-04 16:14
nfl la chi 2026 01 18	5	$38	20	25	-5	open	—	01-19 02:59
bitcoin up or down march 5 8am et	3	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	03-05 14:42
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$36	30	30	+0	open	—	01-15 01:54
bitcoin up or down march 3 4am et	5	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 10:01
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$35	19	19	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30
bitcoin up or down march 9 6am et	5	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	03-09 11:00
us strikes iraq by february 28	6	$28	19	19	+0	open	—	03-02 03:04
bitcoin up or down february 28 12am et	7	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	02-28 05:50
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	4	$27	15	15	+0	open	—	03-03 03:59
bitcoin up or down february 27 12am et	4	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	02-27 05:58
bitcoin up or down february 24 4am et	4	$25	14	14	+0	open	—	02-24 09:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	03-07 10:13
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$24	90	11	+79	open	—	01-15 01:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	3	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	05-22 08:19
bitcoin up or down march 1 10pm et	7	$23	28	28	+0	open	—	03-02 03:55
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 2	2	$22	29	29	+0	open	—	03-02 15:13
bitcoin up or down march 4 8am et	4	$22	19	19	+0	open	—	03-04 13:51
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$22	21	21	+0	open	—	02-28 07:30
bitcoin up or down march 6 8am et	7	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	03-06 13:53
bitcoin up or down march 3 3am et	6	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	03-03 08:48
bitcoin up or down march 8 10pm et	7	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	03-09 02:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 15:05:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x9f574d…
06-09 14:22:00	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x76cd27…
06-09 10:02:10	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x83b316…
06-09 09:44:18	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x95a27f…
06-09 09:43:10	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xe2e73b…
06-09 09:18:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xd92978…
06-09 09:17:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x104a1c…
06-09 09:12:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x3f8d99…
06-08 11:28:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xffe39b…
06-08 10:35:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xda439e…
06-08 04:00:01	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0xaa3be7…
06-08 03:33:18	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xec4eb5…
06-07 16:03:33	israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2d2f5a…
06-06 20:11:58	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x600ebc…
06-06 20:08:58	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xa1c237…
06-06 18:53:37	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x58c919…
06-05 14:32:36	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xa43dc4…
06-05 09:03:04	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x9336fe…
06-04 17:30:54	israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xf94893…
06-04 15:14:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x573c27…
06-04 12:51:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xf59f6d…
06-03 12:08:15	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x85b094…
06-03 10:11:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x118539…
06-03 08:46:41	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xad4579…
06-03 07:50:39	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xfdf7b7…
06-02 04:02:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x9b31b4…
06-01 13:22:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x061245…
06-01 13:09:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4a726c…
06-01 02:50:17	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x453f72…
05-31 13:02:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4f2227…
05-31 00:58:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf517b6…
05-30 20:26:00	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x587b93…
05-30 19:37:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x96f14d…
05-30 17:39:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x890a20…
05-30 16:49:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1cd62c…
05-29 17:00:07	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcc8ccf…
05-29 16:21:23	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x56a41a…
05-29 14:03:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x3c9b71…
05-29 08:02:07	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd71a0c…
05-29 04:05:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x843017…
05-28 13:36:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x0961d3…
05-28 09:32:22	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xfd0846…
05-28 06:36:49	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x741776…
05-28 06:31:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0xd8bc38…
05-28 06:29:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x487782…
05-27 08:25:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x8707f1…
05-27 06:25:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x6e4b26…
05-27 01:55:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x68f331…
05-27 01:07:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3b2831…
05-27 01:05:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x10a127…
05-27 01:04:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x75d934…
05-26 01:41:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x1a029c…
05-25 23:59:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x38f0c9…
05-24 04:42:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x562a5c…
05-24 04:32:31	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa931b8…
05-23 01:36:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x1fd238…
05-22 17:37:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xab6bb7…
05-22 08:19:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0x297dc0…
05-21 18:22:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7c797c…
05-21 14:56:50	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	383	1¢	$5	0x5eea8c…
05-21 14:56:38	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x1b59d6…
05-21 14:56:36	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	225	1¢	$3	0xf4af34…
05-21 13:08:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x6ba06e…
05-21 03:02:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x834d6c…
05-21 02:02:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0x197ebd…
05-20 09:54:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x06b935…
05-19 09:32:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0x4eeac0…
05-18 13:30:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x650784…
05-18 12:11:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x1d3653…
05-18 00:05:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x65e5c8…
05-15 07:57:26	Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8850fb…
05-15 06:32:34	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x8803a3…
05-15 01:00:39	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x2e8d2f…
05-14 09:07:09	Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x1587cf…
05-14 08:50:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x88531d…
05-14 08:31:54	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xa9498d…
05-14 05:35:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x888a59…
05-13 22:54:38	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xed37b1…
05-13 10:04:10	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x6f6ca2…
05-13 09:02:11	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xd56d22…
05-13 05:11:20	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xcb37e0…
05-13 05:11:13	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x9e1d64…
05-13 04:56:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x97d753…
05-13 04:55:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x8ef140…
05-12 03:35:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x0a823b…
05-11 16:42:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xdf9cb0…
05-11 15:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x5ce7cd…
05-07 12:29:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xa44dfe…
05-06 09:32:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0xc35832…
05-06 08:54:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xf919b9…
05-06 08:52:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x678992…
05-05 15:51:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe41648…
05-05 11:57:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xbd7d10…
05-05 07:12:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x3313ba…
05-05 06:19:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc4083f…
05-05 06:00:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x3b3015…
05-04 16:14:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x3abfa9…
05-04 15:21:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xea6a97…
05-04 14:57:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x31702e…
05-04 14:18:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x543947…