Novel-Witness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$3.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-14 15:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Other

39% 100% +$14

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$172	106	106	+0	open	—	04-24 08:21
will iran strike oman again in march	4	$160	200	200	+0	open	—	04-05 00:17
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	4	$145	170	119	+51	open	—	05-28 19:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	4	$122	85	57	+28	open	—	04-14 20:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	2	$119	100	100	+0	open	—	04-21 18:51
houthi military action against saudi arabia by march 31	3	$116	60	60	+0	open	—	04-02 16:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$114	82	82	+0	open	—	05-23 17:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$110	148	62	+85	open	—	04-07 21:01
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$108	59	59	+0	open	—	04-01 01:09
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	4	$104	61	61	+0	open	—	04-01 18:37
saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	4	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	04-02 18:33
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	4	$101	100	100	+0	open	—	04-20 21:18
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	03-31 18:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	5	$92	55	55	+0	open	—	05-19 15:21
houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	2	$87	50	50	+0	open	—	04-16 05:56
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$87	45	45	+0	open	—	03-30 18:20
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	2	$86	45	45	+0	open	—	04-01 04:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$82	53	53	+0	open	—	05-29 22:25
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	2	$81	46	46	+0	open	—	04-16 01:11
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	3	$80	55	55	+0	open	—	03-31 22:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$77	46	46	+0	open	—	04-16 00:40
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	4	$69	85	85	+0	open	—	04-07 16:33
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	3	$67	44	44	+0	open	—	04-20 21:03
us forces seize another oil tanker by march 31	2	$67	37	37	+0	open	—	04-01 07:26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$63	52	52	+0	open	—	04-12 11:53
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	3	$62	100	100	+0	open	—	03-30 20:36
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	3	$60	40	40	+0	open	—	04-16 02:49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$57	100	0	+100	open	—	04-14 20:05
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	4	$55	40	40	+0	open	—	04-05 20:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$54	78	0	+78	open	—	05-25 20:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 15:55:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	No	BUY	47	52¢	$24	0xa800f0…
06-10 18:29:42	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	74¢	$21	0xb3c0da…
06-09 20:33:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xbc0576…
06-02 20:25:10	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	88	21¢	$19	0x405633…
05-29 22:25:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x48ad21…
05-28 19:19:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0xd0f268…
05-28 16:16:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0xd86be5…
05-28 16:15:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x52fe33…
05-27 17:32:42	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x5e733b…
05-26 00:00:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0x99dec6…
05-25 23:28:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	92	45¢	$41	0xe0f0bb…
05-25 20:24:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	78	69¢	$54	0xd43e03…
05-24 17:17:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	143	43¢	$61	0x8788f2…
05-23 21:09:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	48¢	$12	0xe96032…
05-23 21:07:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0x52e1bc…
05-23 17:33:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	82	77¢	$63	0xc368ed…
05-21 17:23:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x9225fd…
05-19 15:21:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xc01c83…
05-19 14:39:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x916094…
05-19 14:33:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xf64e9f…
05-19 14:27:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xd4f6b6…
05-18 19:21:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xa2e1fb…
05-18 17:58:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	82	62¢	$51	0x53b590…
05-15 00:40:52	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xcc4717…
05-14 18:25:45	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xeedebc…
05-07 21:49:00	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	BUY	76	63¢	$48	0xd474e2…
05-07 21:34:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf53911…
05-07 21:34:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x510193…
05-05 02:10:48	Major US official out by May 31?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x03f44f…
05-05 02:00:32	Major US official out by May 31?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x029267…
05-02 19:06:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0xdcea96…
04-26 20:38:38	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xc5d4cc…
04-24 08:21:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	106	95¢	$101	0x727d7b…
04-24 02:45:04	DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xf8aeb3…
04-21 18:51:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x386e32…
04-21 15:59:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	34¢	$15	0xa5cf09…
04-21 15:36:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x4f943c…
04-20 21:18:28	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	86	60¢	$51	0x5c1f81…
04-20 21:17:58	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x7ef097…
04-20 21:17:04	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0xe934e9…
04-20 21:03:46	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x06e430…
04-20 03:58:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x42055e…
04-19 15:53:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x9c04bb…
04-16 05:56:32	houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x419608…
04-16 05:43:40	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xb7298c…
04-16 04:34:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xb3446e…
04-16 02:49:36	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xb0b491…
04-16 01:30:36	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	84	23¢	$19	0xd26999…
04-16 01:29:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x6c42bf…
04-16 01:11:54	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	SELL	46	99¢	$45	0x13dcd1…
04-16 00:40:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0xe51eb5…
04-14 20:20:08	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	28	84¢	$23	0x56e8fb…
04-14 20:15:46	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	SELL	48	86¢	$41	0xd103db…
04-14 20:15:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x146b42…
04-14 20:06:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x01495c…
04-14 20:05:26	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x23be02…
04-14 16:32:08	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xa9ca69…
04-14 16:11:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	103	67¢	$69	0xb6b0dc…
04-14 16:08:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x9d08dc…
04-13 18:48:31	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x36525a…
04-13 17:17:55	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0x5ed483…
04-13 17:10:21	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xb39475…
04-13 16:07:49	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x50b651…
04-13 16:04:43	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xf7869b…
04-13 00:00:11	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0xd7fff1…
04-12 22:23:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x4dba56…
04-12 11:53:59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	52	73¢	$38	0xf49659…
04-07 21:07:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	38	57¢	$21	0xfc1b65…
04-07 21:01:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	62	32¢	$20	0x89b732…
04-07 20:58:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x6a0988…
04-07 20:53:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	85	82¢	$69	0x620f51…
04-07 17:18:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x0789b1…
04-07 16:33:51	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	SELL	85	39¢	$33	0x94d6d4…
04-07 16:15:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xe5a162…
04-07 13:42:21	houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xc2da0c…
04-06 15:34:41	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	SELL	44	56¢	$25	0xef5970…
04-06 13:10:57	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xa2fd32…
04-06 12:03:41	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	258	5¢	$14	0xb917ef…
04-05 20:19:53	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x50806d…
04-05 20:14:53	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	SELL	38	74¢	$28	0x5945d0…
04-05 16:33:27	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x5a1117…
04-05 16:33:27	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	BUY	36	64¢	$23	0x1f01ef…
04-05 00:23:07	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x0d905e…
04-05 00:17:59	will iran strike oman again in march	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5e1a82…
04-04 16:43:07	Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	No	SELL	91	24¢	$22	0x054492…
04-04 15:31:41	will iran strike oman again in march	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xe7637a…
04-04 14:59:07	will iran strike oman again in march	No	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x53cca0…
04-04 14:51:37	will iran strike oman again in march	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xc19fa2…
04-04 11:11:07	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	262	3¢	$8	0x34c486…
04-04 04:48:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xade3f4…
04-03 21:11:21	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1c0159…
04-03 03:38:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x710a86…
04-02 18:35:39	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	SELL	11	68¢	$7	0x20d02c…
04-02 18:35:31	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x71d517…
04-02 18:33:53	saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x52cc1a…
04-02 16:57:01	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	No	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xbbdef8…
04-02 16:56:19	israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x90a064…
04-02 16:54:49	will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	No	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0xc0ab45…
04-02 16:42:35	saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xfd7272…
04-02 16:29:57	houthi military action against saudi arabia by march 31	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xf17a84…