Hurtful-Hornet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.09K

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

4,121

Trades

13,676

lifetime

Volume

$54.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$53

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 11-03 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 35% -$2,895

Politics

3% 30% +$167

Other

2% 19% -$372

Sports

0% 75% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-381	-$59	9¢	$-35	+$25	07-20 13:22
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$5	10¢	$5	$0	09-10 14:01
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	-36	-$3	10¢	$-4	-$1	05-21 10:12
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-141	$3	2¢	$-3	-$5	07-26 13:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+24	$4	11¢	$3	-$1	10-01 11:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	-119	-$7	2¢	$-2	+$5	06-27 14:56
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+45	$5	4¢	$2	-$3	08-29 11:48
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+52	$2	2¢	$1	-$1	07-22 12:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$294	276	276	+0	Yes	+$254	05-09 06:45
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	24	$227	613	994	-381	open	—	07-20 13:22
Tucker Carlson federally charged?	48	$201	9,047	3,416	+5,631	No	-$95	07-01 04:52
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	15	$143	294	294	-0	open	—	07-15 16:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 16:15 UTC	4	$119	136	135	+1	Down	+$79	03-21 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	4	$118	84	84	+0	Up	+$48	05-11 16:20
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	9	$113	1,823	0	+1,823	No	-$113	03-22 06:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 16:30 UTC	8	$110	128	128	+0	Up	+$54	06-30 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	4	$104	82	82	+0	Down	+$58	05-14 06:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	5	$100	222	199	+23	Down	+$20	05-12 14:54
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$98	121	121	+0	No	+$58	03-19 15:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC	7	$97	96	96	+0	Down	+$73	06-16 13:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	6	$97	163	144	+19	Down	+$1	06-14 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 16:35 UTC	7	$91	80	80	+0	Down	+$64	06-09 16:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$87	83	83	+0	Up	+$78	05-13 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	5	$87	151	151	+0	Up	+$17	05-30 07:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 10:10 UTC	4	$83	100	100	+0	Down	+$53	06-10 10:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:40 UTC	7	$79	62	62	+0	Down	+$40	06-25 11:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 12:30 UTC	6	$75	62	62	+0	Up	+$45	06-11 12:35
Iran leadership change by December 31?	18	$75	225	225	+0	open	—	10-08 06:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 06:25 UTC	7	$74	64	64	+0	Up	+$33	06-26 06:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 13:45 UTC	3	$72	94	69	+25	Down	+$32	06-25 13:48
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	9	$72	61	61	+0	Yes	+$38	07-13 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$72	56	56	+0	Up	+$22	05-11 16:24
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	13	$72	495	124	+371	No	-$30	11-02 13:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 07:30 UTC	10	$70	74	70	+4	Down	+$24	07-02 07:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	7	$70	13,278	0	+13,278	No	-$70	03-27 09:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-05 13:00 UTC	18	$70	97	94	+3	Down	+$24	07-05 13:14
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	19	$69	707	847	-141	open	—	07-26 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 09:00 UTC	7	$69	77	77	+0	Up	+$23	06-30 09:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 16:16:00	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x05f219…
11-03 16:14:19	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0xc5d472…
11-02 13:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x62d49e…
11-02 13:24:45	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0xfec7bb…
11-02 13:24:28	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	117	6¢	$7	0x8fb391…
11-02 13:22:27	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x6c3645…
11-02 12:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xaa556f…
11-02 12:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcbb6ed…
11-02 12:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x19cfd1…
10-28 16:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x545f96…
10-28 14:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x1ffeee…
10-11 12:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xcd7209…
10-09 10:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x005ba6…
10-08 15:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x76ede5…
10-08 14:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x5ae83f…
10-08 14:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2f4303…
10-08 14:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x046ec0…
10-08 12:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xf1d305…
10-08 11:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x09f918…
10-08 09:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xe05bd4…
10-08 06:10:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	114	11¢	$12	0x17c0ca…
10-08 05:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x4493f9…
10-07 15:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xc7bfba…
10-07 12:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x70a6ea…
10-07 11:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcfa0ad…
10-07 11:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x580531…
10-07 11:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x507b88…
10-07 04:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x5b45c8…
10-07 04:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0x28f061…
10-07 04:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x508f1a…
10-07 03:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xb97cd5…
10-07 03:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x601355…
10-06 13:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfd129e…
10-06 12:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x3c6e61…
10-06 09:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x85c1d6…
10-06 09:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x5d6f8b…
10-05 16:55:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc0bdec…
10-05 14:15:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x655ae6…
10-05 13:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xf4ef06…
10-05 09:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x5574e9…
10-04 13:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x0ce685…
10-04 12:13:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	Down	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xc16986…
10-04 12:13:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	Down	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x468cbb…
10-04 12:02:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x89ad29…
10-03 15:43:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0xc68ccb…
10-03 15:43:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0x0644c6…
10-03 15:36:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x75204d…
10-03 14:06:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x520ad5…
10-03 13:20:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1adcbf…
10-03 13:15:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x619b50…
10-03 09:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0da0b6…
10-03 09:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8e63ac…
10-03 09:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1fe019…
10-03 08:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x52ff57…
10-03 05:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x3b6122…
10-02 19:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x8e82a8…
10-02 19:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x5a2e73…
10-02 10:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x79fc08…
10-02 07:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x820014…
10-02 06:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x888efb…
10-02 06:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe2876e…
10-02 05:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xd6f41e…
10-02 05:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xcd7c6e…
10-02 04:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x992373…
10-02 04:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2d42bc…
10-01 15:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x9f76ed…
10-01 15:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xd0a58b…
10-01 12:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2861b0…
10-01 12:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2d66d9…
10-01 11:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x31fe45…
10-01 11:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x1fd44f…
10-01 11:33:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	29	19¢	$5	0xabe069…
10-01 09:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x7f4be2…
09-30 16:06:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x73030b…
09-30 16:03:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x9f1c1c…
09-30 15:59:14	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x046103…
09-30 15:58:18	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x086f59…
09-30 05:32:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 05:30 UTC	Down	SELL	21	29¢	$6	0xe18025…
09-30 05:32:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x85371d…
09-29 15:52:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:45 UTC	Down	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x65e43a…
09-29 15:45:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x2f177d…
09-29 15:21:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe47ee1…
09-29 15:19:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x7879ba…
09-29 15:00:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x957d64…
09-29 13:39:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xbe958b…
09-29 11:55:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb5d3df…
09-29 10:09:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 10:00 UTC	Up	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0x09c194…
09-29 10:08:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x569939…
09-29 09:46:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xad680a…
09-29 09:06:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x997482…
09-29 08:32:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xb89129…
09-29 07:57:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x48a85b…
09-29 07:33:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:30 UTC	Up	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x54089d…
09-29 07:31:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x9440bf…
09-29 07:17:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe5bc0c…
09-29 07:14:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:00 UTC	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x53b5c2…
09-29 07:14:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:00 UTC	Down	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xadf7bf…
09-29 07:12:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xfdc78b…
09-29 05:54:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xf0b595…
09-29 05:33:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbd2b3d…