Intelligent-Fedelini — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

8,427

lifetime

Volume

$220.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$17

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-02 04:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

57% — —

Other

37% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

2% 0% $-1

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 509 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5)	Samsonova	+7	$0	95¢	$7	+$7	06-05 16:48
Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5)	Weibo Gaming	+6	$0	95¢	$6	+$6	06-06 06:39
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	Nerve of Cow	+7	$0	50¢	$4	+$3	06-09 16:36
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	+8	$0	7¢	$1	+$1	06-09 07:26
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	+7	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	07-01 03:03
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+8	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	07-02 08:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	5,104	$47.2K	15,197,954	16,009,833	-811,879	open	—	01-26 16:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	47	$28.4K	6,806	29,757	-22,951	open	—	01-30 17:27
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	6	$28.2K	28,020	5,069	+22,951	open	—	01-30 17:16
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	6	$21.1K	21,080	12,009	+9,071	open	—	01-30 21:05
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	5	$21.0K	21,020	12,069	+8,951	open	—	01-30 21:36
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$20.9K	20,850	12,239	+8,611	open	—	01-30 17:17
atp hanfman cerund 2026 02 18	1	$13.7K	28,000	0	+28,000	open	—	02-18 19:02
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$10.0K	10,000	5,106	+4,894	open	—	03-18 17:48
ucl bvb1 ata1 2026 02 17 btts	1	$4.9K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	02-17 17:00
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	3	$4.1K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-05 21:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$3.4K	3,450	0	+3,450	open	—	04-08 21:30
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$3.4K	3,400	0	+3,400	open	—	04-30 23:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$3.4K	3,400	0	+3,400	open	—	06-02 10:53
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	2	$3.2K	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	01-07 22:42
will iron lung opening weekend box office be between 11m and 13m	6	$1.8K	2,183	5,384	-3,201	open	—	01-30 05:25
will iron lung opening weekend box office be between 13m and 15m	7	$1.5K	2,005	654	+1,351	open	—	01-30 05:26
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	183	$1.5K	157,515	582,621	-425,106	open	—	01-28 00:03
will iron lung opening weekend box office be greater than 15m	3	$1.2K	2,200	0	+2,200	open	—	01-29 14:48
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	3	$751	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	01-16 04:05
will iron lung opening weekend box office be less than 11m	3	$454	732	2,932	-2,200	open	—	01-30 05:24
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$90	5,126	70	+5,056	open	—	03-18 05:33
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	2	$58	0	33,089	-33,089	open	—	01-30 21:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$58	0	33,089	-33,089	open	—	01-31 20:57
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 61	2	$40	49	49	+0	open	—	02-04 13:56
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	1	$33	0	33,089	-33,089	open	—	01-31 06:05
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	2	$33	0	33,089	-33,089	open	—	02-03 23:03
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	1	$33	0	33,089	-33,089	open	—	02-04 23:49
will turnout in the 2025 honduran general election be between 60 and 65	1	$30	0	41	-41	open	—	02-04 12:01
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$27	0	5,109	-5,109	open	—	03-18 05:46
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 500 519	3	$19	104	48	+55	open	—	01-02 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 11:54:16	will noah kahan have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x41b6c6…
07-02 11:54:13	will bad bunny have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xee665e…
07-02 11:54:05	will bruno mars have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1738b7…
07-02 11:50:31	will the announcers say ronaldo during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154128	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x02d0d6…
07-02 11:39:04	will the announcers say ronaldo during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154128	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x90cae5…
07-02 11:36:17	will alex warren have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xf338f2…
07-02 09:32:16	Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xd48ebb…
07-02 08:21:23	Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xa18026…
07-02 08:19:35	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x2ed45b…
07-02 04:33:13	Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xecf601…
07-02 02:41:25	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x405033…
07-02 01:35:26	will bruno mars have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe2684f…
07-02 01:17:38	Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2cd2a3…
07-01 20:26:23	will the weeknd have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x64e1ed…
07-01 19:57:35	will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xc489ee…
07-01 19:30:41	will no lemonade stand episode air 20260626152001214	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xc652e8…
07-01 19:26:55	Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xe3c028…
07-01 19:20:37	will alex warren have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xa15b97…
07-01 18:10:26	will the announcers say kane 30 times during the england vs dr congo fifa world cup match 20260630205034673	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xcfc6ea…
07-01 15:00:20	Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x5d597e…
07-01 14:54:20	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in june	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2af6fb…
07-01 14:54:08	will trump speak to yoon suk yeol in june	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x3ad44b…
07-01 14:12:13	will noah kahan have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x9b7db0…
07-01 13:57:20	Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds?	Odd	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x428c3a…
07-01 09:54:44	e jean carroll arrested by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc300d0…
07-01 09:14:34	will anyone say vibe 5 times during love island e25 20260625174137757	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xdc09b2…
07-01 09:05:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x17c41f…
07-01 08:32:55	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xb9c244…
07-01 07:58:08	will claude code commits hit low 350pt0k by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x3094db…
07-01 07:21:07	Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x479072…
07-01 07:20:52	Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x7708c5…
07-01 07:20:46	Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xfe7cc2…
07-01 07:20:38	Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xa295fa…
07-01 07:20:25	Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x6d22f8…
07-01 07:20:02	Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x97c1fa…
07-01 07:19:47	Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xee93ed…
07-01 07:18:59	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x16eca0…
07-01 07:03:37	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x06ffc6…
07-01 06:38:32	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x39b36f…
07-01 06:27:25	joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe13d67…
07-01 06:08:28	hasan piker arrested by june 30	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xcaa190…
07-01 06:06:46	Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x6ee37c…
07-01 06:03:37	Margot Robbie divorce by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x4b0e1e…
07-01 06:02:50	Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x1e13f8…
07-01 06:01:35	SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xbf74e5…
07-01 05:58:17	Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x264e80…
07-01 05:57:40	will donald trump publicly insult pam bondi by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x72c5be…
07-01 05:56:16	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xce1352…
07-01 05:56:07	will donald trump publicly insult jd vance by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd2f32d…
07-01 05:54:01	Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xa701f2…
07-01 05:50:10	California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xf5ed31…
07-01 05:47:02	Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x4b646e…
07-01 05:44:34	Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x41221b…
07-01 05:27:55	Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x2541e6…
07-01 05:27:31	Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x1d29db…
07-01 05:27:17	Will Elon Musk Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x60dde3…
07-01 05:27:02	Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc4b7fd…
07-01 05:26:49	Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x0aed25…
07-01 05:18:55	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xf2d82e…
07-01 05:12:35	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x248dca…
07-01 05:07:29	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x2f216e…
07-01 05:05:38	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x937010…
07-01 04:59:14	McDonald's CEO out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe4d351…
07-01 04:55:52	Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xedd0a5…
07-01 04:54:41	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x45756e…
07-01 04:52:01	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x1503d4…
07-01 04:50:40	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30 20260612142709367	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x4abe11…
07-01 04:49:19	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x91c94b…
07-01 04:48:58	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x9b5933…
07-01 04:03:38	Tucker Carlson federally charged?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x940ea5…
07-01 04:03:20	will russia capture havrylivka by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x8801c2…
07-01 04:02:07	will donald trump publicly insult melania trump by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x336bc7…
07-01 04:01:11	Chirayu Rana divorced?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x71ac77…
07-01 04:01:11	Chirayu Rana divorced?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x258760…
07-01 04:01:01	Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x620a0e…
07-01 04:00:53	Pershing Square acquires Universal Music Group by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xdc8c2e…
07-01 03:26:26	Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xf22d64…
07-01 03:09:13	James Comey in jail by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8239ca…
07-01 03:03:08	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x38b8f6…
07-01 02:58:52	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xfc1357…
07-01 02:57:38	Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8b597a…
07-01 02:55:58	Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xacdf53…
07-01 02:53:38	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xdb4b2a…
07-01 01:36:05	will russia capture mala tokmachka by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x41cda5…
07-01 01:29:37	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x21bb43…
07-01 01:19:19	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xc306c0…
07-01 00:55:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xfe38bc…
06-30 23:50:44	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x518d0b…
06-30 22:52:20	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x8368d3…
06-30 22:32:08	Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x68d51c…
06-30 21:53:25	Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8c614b…
06-30 21:50:52	will kanye west have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x197524…
06-30 21:20:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x12ff02…
06-30 20:31:29	Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xd7c34f…
06-30 20:30:59	Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x759f7a…
06-30 20:30:32	msft above 375 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xbd7ef1…
06-30 20:08:13	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xacb532…
06-30 19:57:56	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xf8a77a…
06-30 19:54:25	amzn above 220 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xdba858…
06-30 19:54:16	amzn above 210 on june 30 2026	No	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xcd237c…