Serious-Immigrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$70

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.2%

Resolved

118

Trades

409

lifetime

Volume

$14.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 05-20 05:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Politics

58% 47% -$8

Other

31% 32% -$14

Crypto

11% 72% -$47

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Tech

0% 50% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-20).

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	46	$3.8K	1,929	1,929	+0	No	-$2	04-30 08:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	42	$3.1K	1,571	1,571	+0	No	-$2	05-05 17:15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	22	$1.7K	849	849	+0	No	-$1	05-03 06:20
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	16	$1.3K	656	656	+0	Yes	-$1	05-02 04:30
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	8	$600	303	303	+0	No	$0	05-04 10:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	8	$440	220	220	+0	No	$0	05-06 20:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$219	131	131	+0	No	-$1	05-06 20:25
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	4	$200	101	101	+0	Yes	$0	05-02 04:28
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$180	91	91	+0	open	—	05-11 10:10
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$174	87	87	+0	No	$0	04-30 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	3	$128	69	69	+0	Up	+$8	05-04 17:24
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	4	$120	60	60	+0	No	$0	05-10 07:04
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	4	$119	61	61	+0	Yes	-$1	05-07 08:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	8	$114	62	62	+0	Down	+$4	05-07 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	4	$103	58	58	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 17:19
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$100	51	51	+0	open	—	05-11 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$86	53	53	+0	Down	+$6	05-04 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$84	45	45	+0	Up	+$4	05-08 06:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	5	$81	45	45	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	2	$81	42	42	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 07:33
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	2	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	$0	05-07 07:31
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	2	$80	43	43	+0	Yes	$0	04-30 08:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	5	$71	43	43	+0	Up	+$7	05-05 08:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$70	35	35	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 18:15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$65	36	36	+0	No	+$3	05-13 15:40
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	05-11 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	3	$62	35	35	+0	Up	+$2	05-03 05:24
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-11 10:11
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-11 10:10
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-11 10:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 05:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	60¢	$9	0x9a6aa8…
05-18 18:56:08	World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia	Czechia	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0xff6d50…
05-18 18:55:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x52487f…
05-18 18:55:29	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x82f55b…
05-18 18:55:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xe26ed9…
05-18 18:55:19	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xf2efc1…
05-18 18:55:13	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xb0c85e…
05-18 18:13:19	World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia	Sweden	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x98bad3…
05-16 15:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x2c01d8…
05-16 15:26:41	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x5763f6…
05-14 21:27:44	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd78441…
05-14 07:23:42	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x5e54c8…
05-13 15:46:03	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xbdf9d3…
05-13 15:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1a2070…
05-13 15:44:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xf8329e…
05-13 15:43:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x435d24…
05-13 15:43:27	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xa89b1f…
05-13 15:43:17	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x306aa5…
05-13 15:43:08	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1cc13c…
05-13 15:42:42	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x178bb5…
05-13 15:42:16	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xee6668…
05-13 15:41:53	Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2ffcd5…
05-13 15:41:27	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x3eaaf1…
05-13 15:41:13	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x737bcb…
05-13 15:40:45	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x854fde…
05-13 15:40:13	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x5c7947…
05-13 11:17:33	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	36	87¢	$31	0x2f443d…
05-13 04:27:47	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x35c09d…
05-13 04:27:36	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc8c95d…
05-13 04:27:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x1001cb…
05-12 12:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x9305d2…
05-12 12:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7c66f0…
05-12 12:01:03	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xb03f90…
05-12 12:00:59	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf5c3e6…
05-12 12:00:54	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x740fa8…
05-12 12:00:50	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbe53d5…
05-11 20:00:44	Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x78ae80…
05-11 20:00:23	Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb69731…
05-11 20:00:18	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x91fc55…
05-11 20:00:12	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xfe10a8…
05-11 19:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x2fee8f…
05-11 19:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x7720b7…
05-11 10:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x45fe86…
05-11 10:11:41	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x68d8b4…
05-11 10:11:06	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x4d9917…
05-11 10:10:57	Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd61f2f…
05-11 10:10:52	Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xfa8df6…
05-11 10:10:31	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x436144…
05-11 10:10:27	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7f4a19…
05-11 10:10:15	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xf8fe18…
05-11 10:09:45	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x4befe5…
05-11 10:09:37	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xb938f7…
05-11 10:09:33	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1a9c9a…
05-11 10:09:28	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xfff91c…
05-11 10:09:24	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x80b248…
05-11 10:09:17	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0xad8829…
05-11 10:09:14	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6fe992…
05-11 10:09:09	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x1963e2…
05-11 10:09:05	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x1ba6ea…
05-11 10:08:46	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x19dc29…
05-11 10:08:35	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x18a294…
05-11 10:08:32	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1c8107…
05-11 10:08:13	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x5c5c40…
05-11 10:08:06	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd462f3…
05-11 10:08:00	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x128a5a…
05-11 10:07:53	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x48a894…
05-11 10:07:50	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd22dbf…
05-10 07:04:32	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xc556a0…
05-10 07:04:28	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5a63f6…
05-10 07:04:21	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x9de156…
05-10 07:04:18	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9eaa6f…
05-10 07:04:07	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe24556…
05-10 07:03:52	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x35ffe1…
05-09 16:24:43	Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	UNiTY esports	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xa1f775…
05-09 13:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe3dee9…
05-09 13:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x6c0290…
05-09 11:01:42	Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	UNiTY esports	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xf17dba…
05-09 11:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x0b1d10…
05-09 10:59:15	Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	Yes	SELL	24	78¢	$19	0x4eeae0…
05-09 10:59:11	Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xa40b92…
05-09 10:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x36d502…
05-09 10:57:56	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x7ce2e8…
05-08 20:21:53	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	0¢	$0	0xd71b1e…
05-08 20:20:43	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x52c519…
05-08 14:00:04	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x0e7bcf…
05-08 12:15:01	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x4eccb1…
05-08 10:43:59	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x77f753…
05-08 07:33:25	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x5b38a1…
05-08 07:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe3a323…
05-08 07:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0xabe83e…
05-08 07:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf0f384…
05-08 07:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x1116da…
05-08 07:25:10	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x4e4743…
05-08 07:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xdcb303…
05-08 07:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x83a070…
05-08 06:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x960ec1…
05-08 06:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xaa753e…
05-08 05:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x8066e7…
05-08 04:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x70bbe4…
05-08 03:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0xa9ccd5…