Variable-Penguin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

334

lifetime

Volume

$333

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-21 02:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

42% 0% $-0

Politics

29% 0% $-0

Crypto

15% 0% $-0

Tech

11% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	9	$9	5	4	+1	open	—	01-16 08:47
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-26 06:43
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-19 06:58
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-10 02:47
trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-10 06:50
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-27 04:58
bitcoin above 58k on march 10	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-09 02:33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-23 09:43
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-16 06:10
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-04 09:03
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 18 2026	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-18 06:24
will city protocol launch a token by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-18 04:50
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-13 00:47
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 06:21
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-04 05:39
spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-18 09:10
bitcoin above 62k on march 12	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 02:47
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	07-18 07:14
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-16 06:56
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 03:31
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 19 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-19 06:58
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 03:21
ethereum above 1800 on march 23	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 04:47
will elon musk be richest person on march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 04:53
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-06 06:33
bitcoin above 80k on january 9	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-04 07:43
will iraq recognize israel by december 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-14 01:23
will gas hit high 5pt00 by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 07:59
bitcoin above 80k on january 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-10 08:01
us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by january 31 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-07 07:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 02:10:43	over 500k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129595	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2735d0…
07-21 01:47:09	over 500k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129595	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3c6e0b…
07-20 06:31:18	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3aafbd…
07-20 06:17:33	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc4e2b3…
07-18 07:14:36	will trump meet with joseph aoun in july 2026 20260626153701915	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1c4ec6…
07-18 07:14:01	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x615414…
07-18 06:55:10	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb15d5a…
07-18 06:42:49	will trump meet with joseph aoun in july 2026 20260626153701915	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d8ef3…
07-17 04:46:43	bitcoin above 56k on july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1fc5a3…
07-17 04:45:52	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0c5aeb…
07-17 04:26:06	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x84548f…
07-17 03:56:25	bitcoin above 56k on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7c9318…
07-16 06:56:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9fbdfa…
07-16 06:31:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x95cf0b…
07-15 06:27:14	will polymarket mindshare hit 75 by december 31 20260630144203053	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x325af4…
07-15 06:26:46	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfa9098…
07-15 03:50:55	will polymarket mindshare hit 75 by december 31 20260630144203053	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa9b8a3…
07-15 03:39:05	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x607d1b…
07-14 01:24:14	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc4a7df…
07-14 01:23:29	will iraq recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa1ed3a…
07-14 01:08:11	will iraq recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd055d7…
07-14 01:00:47	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x98c347…
07-13 06:33:41	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa99ab7…
07-13 06:33:14	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x718d1c…
07-13 05:10:01	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf88c4b…
07-13 05:04:55	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1832e9…
07-11 01:41:44	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf95560…
07-11 01:41:13	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x000ba8…
07-11 01:19:35	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x869aae…
07-11 01:10:52	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2e50b1…
07-10 06:50:28	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb643e5…
07-10 06:24:40	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x504732…
07-09 01:34:58	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x88b101…
07-09 01:15:49	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcf27c3…
07-08 07:05:04	will shabana mahmood be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533205	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x63a76d…
07-08 07:04:04	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb85f8d…
07-08 06:43:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xde183d…
07-08 06:38:08	will shabana mahmood be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533205	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa873b4…
07-07 03:15:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997 185	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf22e02…
07-07 00:03:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997 185	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x505db1…
07-06 06:33:40	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x47feca…
07-06 06:21:02	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc44c86…
07-04 06:06:44	netanyahu out by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2ce85a…
07-04 06:06:11	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x116bb7…
07-04 04:34:23	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x970431…
07-04 03:58:04	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7edc3d…
07-03 06:07:43	dario amodei arrested by december 31 20260702002059924	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9f5624…
07-03 04:47:05	dario amodei arrested by december 31 20260702002059924	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa66443…
07-02 06:59:55	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x871667…
07-02 06:22:59	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xab19e7…
07-01 07:30:32	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x99e918…
07-01 07:29:26	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x83a073…
07-01 06:23:46	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfb1842…
07-01 06:13:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x919cf7…
06-30 01:37:55	msft above 330 on june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x90c4ce…
06-30 01:30:02	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x867e03…
06-30 00:49:59	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf36863…
06-30 00:22:47	msft above 330 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x90d066…
06-29 06:59:40	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3a0f73…
06-29 04:53:19	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc30784…
06-25 07:25:17	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa8f77d…
06-25 06:57:14	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe4b792…
06-24 07:16:26	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6578a5…
06-24 06:23:19	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2f4e11…
06-23 06:56:16	Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x271954…
06-23 06:55:17	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6bcf12…
06-23 06:34:16	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x617dff…
06-23 06:27:20	Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5e3cf2…
06-22 02:11:41	will tabi launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x821016…
06-22 01:49:26	will tabi launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5b3e9e…
06-21 07:30:20	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x916433…
06-21 07:01:32	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x37a560…
06-18 04:50:59	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 16 2026	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x43d921…
06-18 04:50:04	will city protocol launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf08c8e…
06-18 04:39:55	will city protocol launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x844663…
06-18 04:37:04	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xffd3ce…
06-17 03:53:56	will ethereal launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x096f9d…
06-17 03:37:31	will ethereal launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe3ff90…
06-15 06:41:16	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x38c099…
06-13 06:45:25	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 12 2026 20260611220617200	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0ad43c…
06-13 06:35:55	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 12 2026 20260611220617200	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd232f2…
06-12 07:07:15	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x63040b…
06-12 06:36:01	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe57cce…
06-11 06:40:19	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd586d6…
06-11 04:56:10	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x23c1ff…
06-10 07:10:21	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x290804…
06-10 06:52:24	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x559bef…
06-09 07:05:12	Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x35ca66…
06-09 07:04:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfb4c1f…
06-09 06:55:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x204589…
06-09 06:51:55	Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbdf36b…
06-08 06:34:46	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1e69fd…
06-08 06:18:40	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdf011d…
06-06 06:49:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc0045c…
06-06 06:33:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd5e4ab…
06-04 08:39:48	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0db828…
06-04 08:28:04	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb17647…
06-02 04:36:46	Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7c7481…
06-02 03:41:43	Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa685cc…
06-01 07:38:55	Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1b5ce9…