Untrue-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

86.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,107

lifetime

Volume

$274.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$248

Open exposure

$850

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

42% — —

Politics

31% 50% +$35

Other

24% 100% +$1

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No		+950	$826	90¢	$850	+$24	06-07 16:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	26	$8.1K	5,150	4,500	+650	open	—	03-27 17:39
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	12	$7.6K	4,153	3,553	+600	open	—	03-19 20:14
will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	57	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	03-10 21:38
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	19	$5.9K	2,980	2,980	+0	open	—	02-23 20:23
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	6	$5.8K	2,909	2,909	+0	open	—	01-15 19:05
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	6	$5.1K	3,000	2,100	+900	open	—	01-21 15:45
will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	2	$5.0K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	03-12 10:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	6	$4.9K	3,600	1,400	+2,200	open	—	03-06 14:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$4.8K	3,500	3,500	+0	Yes	+$35	04-02 21:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$4.8K	6,210	1,700	+4,510	open	—	03-03 17:34
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	23	$4.5K	2,300	2,262	+38	open	—	01-28 08:29
Trump out as President by April 30?	5	$4.5K	2,304	2,304	+0	open	—	04-10 10:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$4.5K	2,320	2,320	+0	open	—	04-17 18:56
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	21	$4.4K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	02-16 13:41
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-03 15:29
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	3	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-09 09:47
trump out as president by march 31	5	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-09 09:45
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	4	$3.7K	1,850	1,850	+0	open	—	03-03 17:17
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$3.5K	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	01-19 18:58
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	15	$3.3K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	01-24 14:59
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$0	03-27 14:56
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	5	$2.8K	1,410	1,410	+0	open	—	01-30 16:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	12	$2.6K	1,792	2,292	-500	open	—	05-07 10:48
will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of february 957 911 432 757 792 499 213 135	7	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	02-24 23:05
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	4	$2.6K	2,100	500	+1,600	open	—	03-05 18:38
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	02-03 15:29
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	5	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	01-19 07:07
will ethereum dip to 1000 in february 2026	4	$2.5K	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	02-27 19:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	02-27 04:51
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	21	$2.3K	2,352	2,352	+0	open	—	06-08 17:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 01:51:18	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	99¢	$592	0x95c355…
06-09 14:17:33	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	102	77¢	$79	0xf6c591…
06-09 14:17:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	492	12¢	$59	0xdb5f38…
06-09 14:15:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	414	87¢	$361	0x69f5fe…
06-09 14:13:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	86	86¢	$74	0xdad6d8…
06-09 14:10:07	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	102	78¢	$80	0x76da91…
06-09 14:02:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	233	64¢	$149	0xe0339c…
06-09 13:58:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	255	65¢	$166	0xb0b37a…
06-09 13:58:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x9d483b…
06-09 13:57:18	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xbe57ef…
06-09 13:51:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xfdaacb…
06-09 13:47:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	492	13¢	$64	0xe07b00…
06-09 13:39:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	85	37¢	$31	0x2e6bdf…
06-09 13:39:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x95ab06…
06-09 13:37:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	115	37¢	$43	0x14af3e…
06-09 13:33:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	66¢	$330	0x366f99…
06-08 17:21:58	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2027 20260604155615148	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0xf520bb…
06-08 17:14:42	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2026 20260604155615144	Yes	SELL	70	7¢	$5	0x00f6fc…
06-08 17:14:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	154	12¢	$18	0x4178f8…
06-08 17:14:03	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0xeaa5ee…
06-08 17:13:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	300	18¢	$54	0x56efdb…
06-08 17:13:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	141	12¢	$17	0xcbca27…
06-08 17:12:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	154	13¢	$20	0xab8e8e…
06-08 17:12:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	411	33¢	$136	0x225e96…
06-08 17:12:34	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	115	13¢	$15	0xd9f02b…
06-08 17:12:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	77	13¢	$10	0x151a51…
06-08 17:12:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	38	13¢	$5	0x141442…
06-08 17:09:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	297	18¢	$54	0x815319…
06-08 17:07:34	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x11a6f1…
06-08 17:04:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	44	13¢	$6	0x6ff71c…
06-08 16:59:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	72	12¢	$9	0x6b809b…
06-08 16:58:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$0	0x1c51d5…
06-08 16:56:51	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x764ecf…
06-08 16:56:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x3db012…
06-08 16:56:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0xc147e5…
06-08 16:55:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0xc6a3e2…
06-08 16:52:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	26	13¢	$3	0xf46544…
06-08 16:49:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x917029…
06-08 16:48:13	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	175	13¢	$23	0xb9eedc…
06-08 16:48:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	128	13¢	$17	0xa70a0f…
06-08 16:47:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x7125b5…
06-08 16:32:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0xe494c1…
06-08 16:31:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	34¢	$27	0xb33395…
06-08 16:28:49	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2026 20260604155615144	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x97fa35…
06-08 16:25:39	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2027 20260604155615148	No	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0xd0ff4f…
06-08 16:25:19	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2026 20260604155615144	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0xe73c71…
06-08 16:22:04	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2027 20260604155615148	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x3d0d95…
06-08 16:21:54	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2027 20260604155615148	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xf90961…
06-08 16:20:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0x7af575…
06-08 16:19:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	34¢	$99	0x7ac335…
06-08 16:18:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0xc1e721…
06-08 16:13:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	405	80¢	$324	0x717d4f…
06-08 16:11:52	will the malaysian house of representatives be dissolved by june 30 2026 20260604155615144	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x62e3dc…
06-08 16:07:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1,200	85¢	$1,020	0xadd9ca…
06-08 16:06:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1,192	85¢	$1,013	0x7d76a0…
06-08 16:06:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x6b378f…
06-08 16:05:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x51b508…
06-08 16:03:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x764673…
06-08 16:02:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0xa46f48…
06-07 16:34:21	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	950	87¢	$826	0xf91b8e…
06-07 16:32:28	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	99¢	$592	0x7ea4d7…
05-25 20:05:29	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	229	57¢	$131	0xd197e6…
05-25 19:49:14	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0xf43672…
05-25 19:40:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	300	66¢	$198	0x8e5908…
05-25 19:33:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x5847e1…
05-25 19:32:32	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	104	62¢	$64	0xb219dd…
05-25 19:31:34	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	96	62¢	$60	0xfa571f…
05-25 19:27:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	29	66¢	$19	0x136c3f…
05-25 19:26:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x521010…
05-20 16:25:33	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	348	26¢	$90	0x5e5b7e…
05-20 16:25:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	135	51¢	$69	0xd494a3…
05-20 16:24:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	65	52¢	$34	0x1be1fb…
05-20 16:20:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	96	54¢	$52	0xbc8ee5…
05-20 16:00:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x9425c7…
05-20 15:53:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x4f0477…
05-20 15:19:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0xc73d18…
05-20 15:19:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x250dcd…
05-20 14:56:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x33a52f…
05-20 14:43:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	33¢	$330	0x2dfefc…
05-20 14:27:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0x776551…
05-20 14:26:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	186	61¢	$113	0x8a7ce1…
05-20 14:22:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	42¢	$210	0xf4b7c8…
05-20 14:19:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	700	64¢	$448	0x79ea8c…
05-20 14:18:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	65¢	$650	0xf2e520…
05-20 14:17:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0xec0ac7…
05-20 14:17:21	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x5ffb3b…
05-20 14:17:14	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	150	43¢	$64	0x52de2d…
05-20 14:16:36	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0xe39fd0…
05-19 14:55:03	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Harold Mayot vs Tomas Barrios	Tomas Barrios	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x45038b…
05-19 14:54:44	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x04d3a3…
05-19 14:54:21	Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert	Ugo Humbert	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xf5085d…
05-15 20:12:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x2e6892…
05-15 14:21:16	LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Team WE	SELL	502	26¢	$130	0x2b0d50…
05-15 14:16:22	LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Team WE	BUY	2	27¢	$0	0x5750a5…
05-15 14:08:02	LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Team WE	BUY	500	27¢	$135	0x3e0db9…
05-07 10:48:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	24¢	$23	0xb18246…
05-07 10:01:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	45¢	$225	0x6930bc…
05-07 09:52:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	45¢	$225	0x022d4d…
05-06 15:26:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x79c38e…
05-06 15:25:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	600	75¢	$448	0xacd93f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	170	$1.43M	24,846	06-10 01:32
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	168	$348.2K	2,096	06-08 20:34
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	156	$103.1K	47,909	04-26 14:40
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	156	$19.1K	4,506	06-08 23:55
Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44	132	$9.39K	6,048	06-08 11:05
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	131	$542.5K	2,862	06-09 23:04
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	127	$28.3M	47,439	06-10 04:04
Constant-Passbook 0x8daf…ef60	127	$401.5K	1,493	06-09 09:10