Frayed-Nougat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$659

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

64.5%

Resolved

456

Trades

1,736

lifetime

Volume

$45.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$191

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-11 23:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 160 days

Categories

Other

66% 59% -$653

Politics

15% 68% +$275

Crypto

7% 66% -$168

Tech

7% 71% +$88

Sports

3% 31% -$209

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+100	$67	87¢	$87	+$20	10-10 18:45
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+60	$51	82¢	$49	-$2	10-03 13:03
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027?	Yes	+60	$57	58¢	$35	-$22	09-23 22:23
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in November?	Yes	+10	$10	80¢	$8	-$2	11-11 23:13
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	+100	$44	8¢	$7	-$36	08-03 15:02
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	+185	$11	2¢	$3	-$8	06-08 16:04
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	+2	$1	99¢	$2	+$1	05-26 19:36
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+3	$1	16¢	$0	$0	10-17 23:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	13	$838	500	500	+0	LOUD	-$2	05-10 21:50
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	14	$789	550	513	+37	Aurora	-$3	05-22 20:48
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	18	$779	1,018	400	+618	Yes	-$181	07-07 19:23
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	30	$752	1,073	946	+127	Yes	-$26	01-31 07:43
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	3	$750	765	0	+765	Yes	+$15	09-04 19:16
will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	6	$681	350	350	+0	Yes	+$8	07-04 01:18
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$574	300	300	+0	No	+$16	10-24 14:02
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?	7	$519	700	200	+501	Yes	$0	06-12 13:53
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	18	$464	423	340	+83	Yes	-$15	06-30 22:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$437	360	300	+60	No	+$7	06-24 17:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	24	$403	755	215	+540	No	-$154	06-01 22:36
will gamestop q1 net sales be above 750m	3	$400	400	0	+400	Yes	+$0	06-03 19:37
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale?	3	$399	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-10 01:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	5	$398	804	0	+804	No	+$4	05-29 17:57
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage	11	$395	250	250	+0	ex-RUBY	-$80	05-27 19:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	8	$393	526	123	+403	No	+$37	06-20 20:24
dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21	4	$386	298	298	+0	TEAM VISION	+$1	08-21 09:52
Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	16	$381	343	343	+0	No	-$20	08-21 12:15
will mrbeast hit 490 million subscribers by january 31 971 767 566 583	2	$375	375	0	+375	No	+$0	01-31 16:15
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$367	262	262	+0	No	-$34	07-04 00:23
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	9	$355	250	250	+0	Down	-$21	05-29 20:51
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	7	$346	380	100	+280	No	+$4	04-05 14:46
will mrbeasts next video get between 35pt0 and 35pt5 million views on day 4	22	$343	351	240	+111	No	-$94	02-25 15:03
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	4	$332	200	200	+0	Yes	-$4	10-28 14:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$304	400	200	+200	Yes	+$60	06-13 15:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$300	318	0	+318	Yes	+$18	06-14 23:10
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?	2	$300	303	0	+303	Yes	+$3	09-09 17:30
will mrbeast hit 463 million subscribers by january 31	1	$299	300	0	+300	Yes	+$1	01-21 22:54
will mrbeasts latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1 366	7	$296	199	199	+0	Yes	+$21	02-24 13:18
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	2	$294	200	200	+0	No	+$2	06-10 21:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 23:13:06	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in November?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe9ac02…
11-11 23:07:13	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in November?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7d2e5a…
11-10 19:20:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 11?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd3557f…
11-04 00:02:13	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xddbef5…
11-03 19:47:49	Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x8743aa…
11-03 19:37:12	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x91d2ad…
11-03 18:36:21	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0x3973ea…
10-31 16:01:04	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x85ba11…
10-31 15:30:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x92ab3c…
10-30 16:31:40	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x026882…
10-30 16:31:25	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xb2d978…
10-30 16:30:31	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x473149…
10-28 14:20:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	85	82¢	$69	0x9629b2…
10-28 14:13:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	115	82¢	$95	0x128915…
10-28 03:34:04	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	150	91¢	$136	0x457b3c…
10-27 23:40:35	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x3e1e16…
10-27 21:57:09	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x1e7729…
10-27 17:58:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	46	84¢	$39	0xe28e17…
10-27 17:58:48	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	154	84¢	$129	0xa7f9c5…
10-24 14:04:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xfbbdb0…
10-24 14:03:18	Multipli.fi FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xbc15e0…
10-24 14:03:08	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x8dbf85…
10-24 14:02:39	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	300	98¢	$295	0x7673bd…
10-21 16:25:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x5e92b0…
10-20 15:58:54	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xcd2992…
10-19 15:23:33	Will Canza launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xa0af34…
10-18 21:35:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x892368…
10-17 23:37:59	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xfd4e2f…
10-17 23:37:59	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb0bff1…
10-17 21:40:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x286eb6…
10-16 16:19:57	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0x2bee4c…
10-15 13:35:35	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x599cfe…
10-14 15:38:15	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xc2df39…
10-13 21:32:16	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x4db689…
10-13 21:02:07	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x69af7d…
10-13 19:48:39	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe1cbd2…
10-13 18:33:15	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x9ec741…
10-13 17:38:34	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	88¢	$19	0x398bfa…
10-11 19:22:07	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0xaff764…
10-10 18:45:34	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x68f699…
10-10 18:34:49	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x547a1c…
10-10 16:31:51	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x4c1e3d…
10-05 22:09:02	Will MrBeast's next video get 125 million or more views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	9	91¢	$9	0xa5944a…
10-05 22:07:49	Will MrBeast's next video get 125 million or more views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x4c0bfe…
10-03 13:03:32	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x8473c4…
10-03 09:47:26	Jumper listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xae2459…
10-03 09:37:54	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x190255…
09-29 20:45:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x3c1128…
09-27 05:23:45	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xdf00e0…
09-23 22:23:34	Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x595e58…
09-22 17:56:04	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	67	96¢	$65	0x9a6292…
09-22 17:55:10	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x4f6394…
09-22 10:40:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x28141c…
09-20 23:45:41	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x13fe42…
09-20 23:45:40	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x1dd9cd…
09-20 19:11:13	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	150	30¢	$45	0x2fe9d7…
09-20 18:50:11	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0xfb1573…
09-15 20:54:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xc544be…
09-09 17:30:58	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5f8ca4…
09-09 17:30:16	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xc454bd…
09-04 20:25:12	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	26	47¢	$12	0x07b93f…
09-04 19:37:45	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x5d5f81…
09-04 19:16:37	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xe7d4fb…
09-04 19:16:13	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x70fd8e…
09-04 19:06:12	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	510	98¢	$500	0x455692…
09-04 19:04:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	97¢	$150	0x237867…
09-01 09:59:12	Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	45¢	$15	0x921ebc…
08-23 11:36:51	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7006b3…
08-23 11:36:33	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xc1b3f6…
08-23 11:30:30	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x908838…
08-23 08:30:43	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x90456a…
08-23 08:19:34	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0x90aa13…
08-23 08:11:30	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x2c96c7…
08-23 08:00:43	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x62ce53…
08-22 11:06:40	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xd90882…
08-22 10:39:19	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 total games 2pt5	Under	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xe07f60…
08-22 08:15:54	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22	TEAM VISION	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x4bdc37…
08-22 07:46:07	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22	BoomBoys	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5a59a0…
08-22 07:33:27	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22	BoomBoys	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x9d88d1…
08-22 07:33:04	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22	BoomBoys	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x9753c7…
08-22 07:10:34	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x52a587…
08-22 07:01:31	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 total games 2pt5	Under	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xc99b92…
08-22 06:52:46	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xbc06a6…
08-22 06:50:57	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22 game2	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x506947…
08-22 06:31:24	dota2 ngx boombo 2026 08 22 game2	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x84edce…
08-21 14:58:48	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x76380d…
08-21 14:54:54	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game1	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xce8554…
08-21 14:37:03	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game1	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x6be4b3…
08-21 12:15:46	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x54d611…
08-21 11:10:36	dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21 game1	TEAM VISION	SELL	22	76¢	$17	0x1a3012…
08-21 10:44:42	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	112	52¢	$58	0x10d95f…
08-21 10:43:33	dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21 game1	TEAM VISION	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x3a87d6…
08-21 09:54:28	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x0902f9…
08-21 09:52:25	dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21	TEAM VISION	SELL	298	65¢	$193	0xc88494…
08-21 09:43:51	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	54	53¢	$29	0xeaae59…
08-21 09:43:27	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	42	53¢	$23	0x1adc8b…
08-21 09:36:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x76df4c…
08-21 09:30:13	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	42	53¢	$23	0x2d66a3…
08-21 09:28:48	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xf5e74f…
08-21 09:22:54	Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?	No	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x6f8f37…