Frayed-Nougat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$118

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,301

lifetime

Volume

$33.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 18:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

63% 55% $-120

Politics

15% 33% +$2

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

3% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	13	$838	500	500	+0	LOUD	$-2	05-10 21:50
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	14	$789	550	513	+37	open	—	05-22 20:48
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	18	$779	1,018	400	+618	open	—	07-07 19:23
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	30	$752	1,073	946	+127	open	—	01-31 07:43
will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	6	$681	350	350	+0	open	—	07-04 01:18
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?	6	$517	645	200	+445	open	—	06-12 13:53
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	18	$464	423	340	+83	open	—	06-30 22:53
will gamestop q1 net sales be above 750m	3	$400	400	0	+400	open	—	06-03 19:37
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale?	3	$399	200	200	+0	open	—	05-10 01:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	5	$398	804	0	+804	open	—	05-29 17:57
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage	11	$395	250	250	+0	open	—	05-27 19:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	8	$393	526	123	+403	open	—	06-20 20:24
will mrbeast hit 490 million subscribers by january 31 971 767 566 583	2	$375	375	0	+375	open	—	01-31 16:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$375	200	300	-100	open	—	06-24 17:03
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	9	$355	250	250	+0	open	—	05-29 20:51
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	7	$346	380	100	+280	open	—	04-05 14:46
will mrbeasts next video get between 35pt0 and 35pt5 million views on day 4	22	$343	351	240	+111	open	—	02-25 15:03
will mrbeast hit 463 million subscribers by january 31	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	01-21 22:54
will mrbeasts latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1 366	7	$296	199	199	+0	open	—	02-24 13:18
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	2	$294	200	200	+0	open	—	06-10 21:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$290	375	200	+175	open	—	06-13 15:09
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	16	$289	308	196	+112	open	—	05-25 14:11
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	10	$288	200	146	+54	open	—	06-10 08:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$286	171	171	+0	open	—	06-16 17:09
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	7	$281	100	336	-236	No	$-57	05-08 16:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$280	200	100	+100	open	—	05-21 09:16
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$279	625	183	+443	open	—	06-01 22:36
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	23	$256	194	200	-6	Down	+$0	05-03 22:31
will mrbeast hit 464 million subscribers by january 31	5	$255	300	100	+200	open	—	01-21 23:09
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	18	$254	249	177	+72	open	—	06-23 21:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:12:51	btc updown 5m 1786385400	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xd9b5e5…
08-10 18:11:51	btc updown 5m 1786385400	Down	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x7d961a…
08-10 18:11:49	btc updown 5m 1786385400	Down	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x8f7567…
08-10 18:11:49	btc updown 5m 1786385400	Down	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x1904e1…
08-10 17:44:06	btc updown 5m 1786383600	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1a1c95…
08-10 16:47:31	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x5051e5…
08-10 16:29:34	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xc31af8…
08-10 16:10:06	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xedc20a…
08-10 16:07:40	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x45c414…
08-10 16:06:45	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x2f3c71…
07-30 18:04:06	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xb24c61…
07-30 17:39:21	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0x3b2bb4…
07-25 08:18:34	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	56	94¢	$53	0x875532…
07-25 07:17:34	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x98c03f…
07-25 07:17:22	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7ea1b0…
07-25 07:17:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb5554a…
07-25 07:17:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x0683e5…
07-25 04:59:07	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	40	94¢	$37	0x15d3d5…
07-23 21:22:10	will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0x01694b…
07-23 18:12:19	will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x2afbe2…
07-22 21:35:39	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	130	1¢	$2	0x1b45d9…
07-22 21:35:25	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x3fa0ca…
07-22 21:35:04	will russia enter krasnoiarske by july 31	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x469a68…
07-22 21:34:54	will russia enter krasnoiarske by september 30	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x4640c4…
07-22 21:34:33	will russia enter svitle by september 30	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5a6426…
07-22 21:34:16	will russia enter novyi donbas by september 30	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x084102…
07-22 21:33:00	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x80275d…
07-22 05:52:04	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	90	87¢	$78	0xb8b7b9…
07-22 04:53:39	over 50m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129612 463	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x5aeee2…
07-22 00:51:10	over 22pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	95	8¢	$8	0x472625…
07-22 00:03:24	over 22pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x428adf…
07-21 21:38:15	over 27pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	SELL	44	52¢	$23	0xa7aa64…
07-21 20:51:09	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xbe61c6…
07-21 19:48:40	over 27pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xbbe937…
07-21 19:48:40	over 27pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x4fbcdb…
07-21 19:47:13	over 27pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xdb0d75…
07-21 19:42:34	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5d95eb…
07-21 16:56:19	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x314e15…
07-21 16:10:34	over 3m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129599	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xceb0c4…
07-21 15:50:31	over 5m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129601	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xf4a658…
07-21 15:42:01	over 2m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129598	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0xc4226f…
07-14 18:48:47	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xebf17e…
07-14 18:48:14	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x9647b2…
07-13 23:22:41	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xd41b7d…
07-13 19:09:16	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	95	10¢	$9	0x7aebe1…
07-13 17:53:05	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0xb3c29a…
07-13 17:22:16	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	150	39¢	$58	0x7d9a41…
07-13 09:05:25	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x062bad…
07-12 16:06:59	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	59	57¢	$34	0x81d4ff…
07-12 00:03:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	52	38¢	$20	0xd69ac9…
07-11 23:58:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	140	38¢	$53	0xb6d40a…
07-11 23:50:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xfbd7ba…
07-10 19:11:08	will the announcers say what a save during the spain vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260708215901509	Yes	BUY	18	64¢	$11	0x3310b5…
07-10 19:10:26	will the announcers say pressure 7 times during the spain vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260708215901496	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x53a87b…
07-10 18:23:08	will the announcers say what a save during the spain vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260708215901509	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xa459ae…
07-09 18:55:52	will the announcers say speed 5 times during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420732	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6c02a8…
07-09 18:39:26	will the announcers say psg or paris saint germain during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420735	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x3f7270…
07-09 18:38:50	will the announcers say ronaldo during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420754	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x8db7f7…
07-09 18:38:28	will the announcers say haaland during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420751	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x8bee0b…
07-09 18:31:38	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420750	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x5c5af9…
07-09 18:29:59	will the announcers say speed 5 times during the france vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260708172420732	No	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xae8617…
07-07 19:23:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xf81723…
07-07 18:40:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x03bf8a…
07-07 12:16:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xdfaa8f…
07-07 11:24:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x0919d3…
07-07 10:53:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x009152…
07-07 00:01:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	406	27¢	$110	0xea78e2…
07-06 22:37:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x07d39b…
07-06 22:00:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x9bd7b2…
07-06 21:56:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xe3f247…
07-06 21:44:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x4b1595…
07-06 21:39:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x1c167f…
07-06 21:36:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x90febc…
07-06 21:36:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xa48cdd…
07-06 21:14:23	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x23f13e…
07-06 21:13:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xb97f28…
07-06 21:11:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xf72e44…
07-06 19:16:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xa40c48…
07-06 19:16:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0x181a1e…
07-06 19:16:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	22	36¢	$8	0x2462de…
07-06 15:23:37	will ansem reach 0pt4 before 2027	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x4cab8c…
07-06 12:38:58	will ansem reach 0pt4 before 2027	Yes	BUY	152	97¢	$147	0x914671…
07-05 23:17:58	will the announcers say weather during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113090	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xe63eb3…
07-05 23:17:58	will the announcers say weather during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113090	Yes	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0xdacf1f…
07-05 22:50:34	will the announcers say weather during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113090	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xb9947b…
07-05 21:46:02	will the announcers say weather during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113090	Yes	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0xfc3217…
07-05 08:49:41	will ansem reach 0pt4 before 2027	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0xbb31b7…
07-04 20:25:41	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x9015a0…
07-04 16:59:44	over 50m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0652d2…
07-04 16:59:26	over 45m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd4f820…
07-04 16:55:10	over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x007d7d…
07-04 16:52:41	over 80m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x931e5d…
07-04 16:51:41	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x5bbcdb…
07-04 13:29:34	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	60	67¢	$40	0xc52aef…
07-04 01:18:11	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0xc34ed1…
07-04 01:06:10	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	SELL	111	100¢	$110	0x38659f…
07-04 00:56:11	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xd9f00a…
07-03 06:52:14	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0xb8a006…
07-02 22:11:35	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x420461…
07-02 18:52:25	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	Yes	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x9455a1…