Naughty-Hotel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$162

Unrealized P&L

+$219

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

159

Trades

542

lifetime

Volume

$44.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-01-23

last 09-16 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

73% 68% +$155

Politics

17% 80% +$9

Crypto

8% 78% +$0

Tech

1% 25% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Sports

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-250	-$248	12¢	$-29	+$219	06-04 03:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	16	$3.1K	1,602	1,602	+0	No	+$6	04-23 05:06
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	20	$2.5K	1,261	1,261	+0	No	+$1	05-18 08:24
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	15	$2.5K	1,495	1,495	+0	No	+$55	07-14 14:04
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	14	$1.6K	1,033	1,033	+0	open	—	06-30 09:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$1.5K	925	925	+0	Yes	+$38	07-03 18:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$1.2K	606	606	+0	No	+$1	03-30 07:47
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$1.0K	505	505	+0	No	+$2	03-25 17:43
highest temperature in wellington on april 13 2026 21c	3	$1.0K	501	501	+0	No	+$1	04-13 07:45
highest temperature in seoul on april 11 2026 11c	2	$1.0K	501	501	+0	No	+$0	04-11 08:14
highest temperature in seoul on march 28 2026 13c	11	$997	500	500	+0	No	+$0	03-28 09:17
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	2	$900	451	451	+0	No	+$0	04-22 14:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	13	$882	625	876	-250	open	—	06-04 03:47
highest temperature in seoul on april 1 2026 14c	5	$823	413	413	+0	Yes	+$1	04-01 08:20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	4	$697	350	350	+0	Yes	+$1	05-21 10:33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$656	400	400	+0	Yes	+$4	04-03 20:04
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	2	$600	302	302	+0	No	+$0	05-25 06:22
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$600	309	309	+0	open	—	06-12 13:28
highest temperature in seoul on april 13 2026 20c	19	$598	300	300	+0	Yes	+$1	04-13 09:01
highest temperature in wellington on april 14 2026 19c	1	$522	523	0	+523	Yes	+$1	04-14 05:23
highest temperature in beijing on april 16 2026 21c	5	$507	255	255	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 05:54
highest temperature in ankara on april 2 2026 19c	1	$500	501	0	+501	No	+$1	04-02 16:28
highest temperature in milan on april 13 2026 17corhigher	1	$500	501	0	+501	No	+$1	04-13 15:36
highest temperature in ankara on april 10 2026 9c	1	$500	501	0	+501	No	+$1	04-10 14:48
highest temperature in wellington on april 3 2026 21c	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	04-03 05:04
highest temperature in london on april 13 2026 10c	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	04-13 09:15
highest temperature in wellington on april 2 2026 21corhigher	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	04-02 05:17
highest temperature in ankara on april 12 2026 8c	1	$500	500	0	+500	Yes	+$1	04-12 15:49
highest temperature in london on april 17 2026 13c	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	04-17 03:29
highest temperature in nyc on april 5 2026 67forbelow	4	$498	500	0	+500	Yes	+$2	04-05 18:38
highest temperature in tokyo on april 10 2026 20c	10	$498	100	700	-600	Yes	+$2	04-10 15:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 07:02:18	Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xf4513e…
09-05 06:32:58	Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x839c82…
07-14 14:04:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	400	94¢	$375	0x8b2129…
07-10 16:32:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	130	81¢	$105	0x6fb5e4…
07-08 18:07:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xa2b6c6…
07-07 18:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x9e2443…
07-07 18:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x19c5f6…
07-07 18:05:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x11b74d…
07-07 17:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x305155…
07-07 17:53:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xa2ccc3…
07-07 14:36:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	85¢	$339	0xd1c9ab…
07-03 18:30:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	325	89¢	$289	0x2e43e8…
07-01 16:23:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xa448bd…
06-30 16:41:43	Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x9416eb…
06-30 10:41:50	Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3eb8a3…
06-30 10:41:41	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x88908a…
06-30 09:04:11	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	78¢	$100	0xb09cbd…
06-30 09:03:01	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x688c20…
06-30 06:45:28	will the announcers say aggressive during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526253	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x826cd9…
06-30 06:45:04	will the announcers say aggressive during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526253	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0xbcc6c3…
06-30 06:45:04	will the announcers say aggressive during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526253	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa6be51…
06-30 06:45:04	will the announcers say aggressive during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526253	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x53e358…
06-30 06:45:04	will the announcers say aggressive during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526253	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2af65b…
06-30 03:08:56	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xbf5409…
06-30 02:51:31	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x158f90…
06-29 06:57:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$165	0x71e77a…
06-29 06:50:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$165	0x16e647…
06-29 06:29:29	will lab dip to 12 before 2027	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x43d4eb…
06-29 03:05:16	will lab dip to 10 before 2027	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xc6796b…
06-29 03:01:50	will lab dip to 10 before 2027	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x2eee36…
06-29 02:24:01	will lab dip to 12 before 2027	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x44f92a…
06-29 02:16:14	will lab dip to 14 before 2027	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xdb75c5…
06-29 02:13:13	will lab dip to 14 before 2027	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x7f4532…
06-29 01:48:59	will lab dip to 14 before 2027	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x95a239…
06-27 01:41:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x25c40b…
06-26 13:27:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x06b8c2…
06-26 13:23:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$165	0x79ad79…
06-26 13:21:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$165	0x8c994f…
06-26 13:20:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$165	0xc81fdc…
06-26 06:30:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0xd6d20c…
06-26 06:19:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xeedde1…
06-25 19:44:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0xed04db…
06-25 13:22:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x878039…
06-25 07:40:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xf9a33c…
06-25 07:37:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xba27d9…
06-24 16:40:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x863ac3…
06-24 13:50:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	233	77¢	$179	0x3a3a0e…
06-24 07:02:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	132	76¢	$100	0xc86e50…
06-24 07:00:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xebcd32…
06-24 06:53:20	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0xc3aa12…
06-24 06:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0xf0c4fb…
06-24 06:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x9a8dc1…
06-24 06:31:31	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x785c18…
06-24 05:52:41	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x830c60…
06-24 05:41:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x5c620d…
06-23 19:35:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xa21625…
06-22 11:30:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xfea2d4…
06-22 09:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xdbc83a…
06-22 09:33:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0xf38d0b…
06-22 09:23:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xd63d3b…
06-22 09:21:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x0d008f…
06-22 07:46:02	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x8bbd32…
06-22 07:21:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xb3c06b…
06-22 06:52:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0xac07ae…
06-21 17:35:19	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x879930…
06-21 15:04:26	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x3a7901…
06-21 11:49:10	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x3ecd4a…
06-21 10:31:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xc7d032…
06-21 08:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xbc76a1…
06-21 07:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xc2b9fd…
06-21 07:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x1ee8aa…
06-21 07:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xcf0a21…
06-21 07:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xa0f657…
06-21 07:58:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xdbaed8…
06-21 07:58:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x2e9646…
06-21 07:58:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x2ed4cb…
06-21 07:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x708b26…
06-21 07:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x6cfd1b…
06-21 07:22:31	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x8188a6…
06-21 07:12:55	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xfcfd39…
06-20 12:00:10	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$0	0xc8ef69…
06-20 10:49:28	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7e3434…
06-20 09:28:20	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xb659f7…
06-20 09:09:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x7eec0d…
06-20 08:40:10	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0xc8ca3d…
06-20 08:36:10	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xac2a3a…
06-20 08:05:22	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6c6e69…
06-20 08:02:37	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xcf7e40…
06-20 06:33:44	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xd200b0…
06-20 06:33:44	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x6aa2e5…
06-20 06:30:32	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x2185a0…
06-20 06:30:04	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x723844…
06-20 06:20:43	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x6cd4f5…
06-20 06:16:55	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x555715…
06-19 15:06:47	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$37	0x98fc9b…
06-19 15:06:04	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$37	0x9d4bac…
06-19 14:53:31	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	81¢	$100	0x0b1a25…
06-19 14:52:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x93e141…
06-19 12:12:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x2626d8…
06-19 12:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x772960…